PA-2016: Sestak files candidacy for rematch

[IceSpear]

[IceSpear]

Yea Toomey is scaring off all the serious challengers, so I guess this is understandable *smirk smirk*

Republicans underestimate Sestak at their own peril. Let's not forget he only lost 51-49 in a midterm year that happened to be the biggest Republican landslide in decades. 2016 will be a presidential year, with Hillary very likely to carry the state (and will most likely outperform Obama's 2012 margin).

[IceSpear]

Yea Toomey is scaring off all the serious challengers, so I guess this is understandable *smirk smirk*

Republicans underestimate Sestak at their own peril. Let's not forget he only lost 51-49 in a midterm year that happened to be the biggest Republican landslide in decades. 2016 will be a presidential year, with Hillary very likely to carry the state (and will most likely outperform Obama's 2012 margin).

He's also, already, significantly behind in terms of money. I'm sure the Democratic Machine will lower that advantage Toomey has significantly, but that stuff matters, and Toomey certainly has made ground with moderates and independents since 2010 (when he ran as severely conservative).

Yup, for sure. Unlike the empty suit teabagger Ron Johnson, Toomey has actually made some effort to try to get re-elected in a blue state. Which is why the race will be a toss up rather than tilt/lean D.

[IceSpear]

This has been known for awhile. Him making it "official official" really isn't news.

Yea Toomey is scaring off all the serious challengers, so I guess this is understandable *smirk smirk*

Republicans underestimate Sestak at their own peril. Let's not forget he only lost 51-49 in a midterm year that happened to be the biggest Republican landslide in decades. 2016 will be a presidential year, with Hillary very likely to carry the state (and will most likely outperform Obama's 2012 margin).

A Republican incumbent also shouldn't be underestimated: the last time a Republican incumbent Senator won in a massive GOP wave midterm by two points, he was re-elected during a Presidential election year by a wider margin and actually ran ahead of the Dem Presidential nominee who won the state. And also note that that GOP incumbent was far more polarizing than the current one. Far more.

Now I know we'll get the "Rahhhhh but Klink was so weak!" which has been disproven but even if that's true, let's not act like we know what 2016 will be like yet. 

Point taken, but I've never underestimated Toomey. This race is going to be a dogfight.

[IceSpear]

He's launching his campaign tomorrow.

Great news!

[IceSpear]

What has he done the last 6 years? Feel like he's old news.

Considering the "establishment alternatives" are Chris Carney and Vincent Hughes, I think I'll take the old news.

[IceSpear]

Schumer and Tester are wooing Shapiro.

Why is he a better candidate than Sestak, aside from the fact that he hasn't run for Senate before? At first glance he seems like your generic state house democrat.

He's not. The Dem establishment is still bitter that Sestak beat Specter in 2010, and is acting accordingly. He will take them to the cleaners once again. We'll see if they decide to concede the seat to Toomey out of bitterness and spite afterwards.

[IceSpear]

Politics PA did a website poll recently where he led among their readers, but didn't we learn a lot about that from 1936! (The poll on the side of the screen right now shows their readers also believe Sestak would lose head-to-head vs. Pawlowski.)

Scranton-Times Tribune hasn't done a poll, but one writer claims he's almost definitely in.

All the interested candidates are from areas right next to the eastern border of the state unsurprisingly.

Politics PA polls are a good indicator in the sense that whatever they vote for, the opposite tends to occur.

[IceSpear]

Shapiro honestly doesn't seem that interested in the position because it's an uphill battle but Sestak was very moderate and Carney will be to his right. The Philly Dems are only semi-serious candidates. If they want someone sufficiently liberal, Shapiro may be the way to go. I can imagine it being easier for him to fundraise (compared to Pawlowski) since he's from MontCo in just as big an executive role.

I'm not sure why the Establishment would be that upset of someone like Specter who joined the party just to win. He turned into a joke. If Crist couldn't beat Rick Scott, I don't know how Specter would have pulled it out, even as an incumbent. He upset everyone and Sestak had wide appeal.

Very true on your second post though, lol.

It's not really on a logical basis. Specter almost certainly would've lost by a bigger margin than Sestak did, that much is obvious. It's completely personal. It was a major black eye against both the PA Dem establishment and the national Dem establishment that not only did Sestak have the gall to challenge Specter (who was backed by nearly everyone from Obama down in exchnage for his party switch), but then actually won.

I don't think Shapiro would be a bad choice, but there's just nothing he really has over Sestak in terms of candidate quality that makes him superior. Maybe that he'd be less likely to get friendly fire even in the GE? Regardless, it's concerning that people are letting their personal and petty vendettas get in the way of a potentially Democratic Senate. If Dems are only 1 away from a majority with Toomey surviving, they only have themselves to blame.

[IceSpear]

Shapiro isn't running.

The tears of the Sestak haters are flowing rapidly.

[IceSpear]

Shapiro isn't running.

The tears of the Sestak haters are flowing rapidly.

As well as the tears of any PA Dems who want to win.

How exactly is Sestak a weak candidate? He massively outperformed expectations in 2010, both in the primary and the general. The establishment is just bitter he had the gall to run against Specter.

Though you're correct, the odds of Dems beating Toomey are slipping away as the establishment continues to cut off their nose to spite their face.