Why isn't Manchin a Republican?

[IceSpear]

Because he grew up and ran for office in a time where you either were a Democrat or relegated to political obscurity.

[IceSpear]

West Virginia is currently shifting from Democratic to Republican, but Manchin's rise came in the tail end, so his political career came at a time when conservative Democrats routinely held political office. This was how he was elected to the state legislature in 1986.

And he has done well as a Democrat, elected Secretary of State in 2000, Governor in 2004 and Senator in 2010.

He's now in his late 60s, so why he would want to switch to the other party?

He also likely agrees with Democrats on many economic issues. He might have switched if recent years had seen the rise of big government Republicans, but that's not what happened.

No.

WV Senate: 27 Democrats, 10 Republicans
WV House of Delegates: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans
A Democrat has occupied the Governor's mansion since 2001, both US Senate seats since the late-1950s (though this is likely getting ready to change), the AG office from 1933 until last year, and save for the four years between 2005 and 2009, the SOS office since 1977.

Yes, Obama lost the state twice in huge landslides. And no, I'm not from West Virginia. But from the information we have available to us, Democrats still run things.

Joe Manchin's political views likely accurately represent the political views of most Democrats in West Virginia. And that is why he's a Democrat.

The WV House and Senate were much more Democratic a few short years ago, and the HoD is widely expected to flip this year.

You just stated yourself the Republicans are likely to gain a Senate seat, recently won the AG race, and that Obama lost the state in a landslide twice. Furthermore, the only Democratic representative from the state (Nick Rahall) is in real trouble this year. In addition, polls show Hillary Clinton losing WV (and it's not particularly close, except against Cruz) despite the fact that polls show her leading in Arkansas and holding her own in other parts of Appalachia.

I'm not sure how anyone could possibly deny that WV is trending heavily Republican.

[IceSpear]

Just as Republicans in Maine are more liberal than the national party

[IceSpear]

West Virginia is currently shifting from Democratic to Republican, but Manchin's rise came in the tail end, so his political career came at a time when conservative Democrats routinely held political office. This was how he was elected to the state legislature in 1986.

And he has done well as a Democrat, elected Secretary of State in 2000, Governor in 2004 and Senator in 2010.

He's now in his late 60s, so why he would want to switch to the other party?

He also likely agrees with Democrats on many economic issues. He might have switched if recent years had seen the rise of big government Republicans, but that's not what happened.

No.

WV Senate: 27 Democrats, 10 Republicans
WV House of Delegates: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans
A Democrat has occupied the Governor's mansion since 2001, both US Senate seats since the late-1950s (though this is likely getting ready to change), the AG office from 1933 until last year, and save for the four years between 2005 and 2009, the SOS office since 1977.

Yes, Obama lost the state twice in huge landslides. And no, I'm not from West Virginia. But from the information we have available to us, Democrats still run things.

Joe Manchin's political views likely accurately represent the political views of most Democrats in West Virginia. And that is why he's a Democrat.

The WV House and Senate were much more Democratic a few short years ago, and the HoD is widely expected to flip this year.

You just stated yourself the Republicans are likely to gain a Senate seat,

I did. SMC is an extremely good candidate. They also just sent Joe Manchin to the US Senate. Twice.

recently won the AG race,

One win since early in FDR's administration is indicative of a trend?

and that Obama lost the state in a landslide twice.

Does that have to do with a rightward shift, or something that Barack Obama has in common with Richard Sherman and Kanye West?

Furthermore, the only Democratic representative from the state (Nick Rahall) is in real trouble this year.

I can't argue with that. You are right here.

In addition, polls show Hillary Clinton losing WV (and it's not particularly close, except against Cruz) despite the fact that polls show her leading in Arkansas and holding her own in other parts of Appalachia.

By "polls," you mean "poll," right?

I'm not sure how anyone could possibly deny that WV is trending heavily Republican.

Because that assertion is based on about six years' worth of data, and totally ignores the partisan makeup of their state legislature and the person occupying the Governor's mansion.

Joe Manchin is an outlier, just like Susan Collins is in Maine.

Yes, it is indicative of a trend when it is grouped with all of the other evidence.

Al Gore and John Kerry also lost the state.

I'm not saying West Virginia IS heavily Republican. I'm saying that's the overall trend. Look at all the state's elected officials from 2008 and look at them now. Just an example...the House of Delegates went from 69-31 in 2008 to 53-47 now, and the GOP is expected to gain the chamber this year. Even in races they're still winning (such as the Governor's race), the margins are severely reduced from what they used to be.