Rick Snyder 2016

[IceSpear]

Governor of a big purple state with a business background?

Incorrect.

Michigan is a Democratic presidential base state.

Fair enough. I thought it was within five points of the popular vote, although it's actually closer to six. It's winnable for Republicans, but only in a very good cycle.

Technically, that suggests Snyder is even more impressive.

Bush only lost Michigan by five points in 2000 and three points in 2004.  Obama and Clinton carried it by wider margins because those were strong Democrat years nationally.  Michigan is clearly a swing state and NOT safely Democrat.

No. "Swing state or safely Democrat" is a false dichtotomy. It's a lean D state that would only fall in a Republican landslide.

[IceSpear]

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.

Yes, he will.

Uh did you see today's PPP poll? It looks REALLY good for Schauer. His name recognition is atrocious yet he ties Snyder, and Snyder's approval rating is absolute garbage. And Snyder's "right to work" law is unpopular. It's Michigan, so undecideds will break Democrat, and like pbrower said, GOTV from big labor as well as a general increase in Schauer's name recognition (and as a result, popularity) will get Schauer over the line.

To be fair, no other pollster shows Schauer doing so well (coincidentally, or perhaps not, PPP is the only recent pollster there to not use an LV screen). Of course, many of these other pollsters were dead wrong in 2012. It would be nice to get a good pollster in Michigan to see if the results are similar to PPP, but that's probably too much to ask.