If Dems lose Senate in 2014, will GOP win Presidency in 2016? (user search)
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  If Dems lose Senate in 2014, will GOP win Presidency in 2016? (search mode)
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Author Topic: If Dems lose Senate in 2014, will GOP win Presidency in 2016?  (Read 11029 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« on: March 13, 2014, 12:33:15 PM »

No. 2010 (and probably 2014) were big GOP wins because the Democratic coalition does not turn out in midterms/off years. In addition, Hillary is a stronger candidate than any of the GOP presidential candidates could ever hope to be. The two are not correlated at all, anymore than 2010 signaled a Romney landslide, or 1994 signaled a Dole landslide.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2014, 12:35:42 PM »

If Dems lose Senate in 1994, will GOP win Presidency in 1996?

If GOP lose Senate in 1986, will Dems win Presidency in 1988?

If GOP lose Senate in 2006, will dems win presidency in 2008?

Correlation does not equal causation, for one thing. Secondly, the reasons why the GOP lost Congress in 2006 and the presidency in 2008 were not identical (2006 had much more to do with the Iraq quagmire, 2008 was much more about the financial collapse and Bush's deep unpopularity).
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2014, 12:51:27 PM »

If Dems lose Senate in 1994, will GOP win Presidency in 1996?

If GOP lose Senate in 1986, will Dems win Presidency in 1988?

If GOP lose Senate in 2006, will dems win presidency in 2008?

Correlation does not equal causation, for one thing. Secondly, the reasons why the GOP lost Congress in 2006 and the presidency in 2008 were not identical (2006 had much more to do with the Iraq quagmire, 2008 was much more about the financial collapse and Bush's deep unpopularity).

Hahaha, that is the entire point of the debate.  Is Obama's unpopularity (40% in some polls) and Obamacare's unpopularity going to torpedo the midterms and possibly 2016?  

These are real political issues.  Obamacare is a real voter issue whether democrats want to admit it or not.  

Obama's average approval at the moment is 43%. While not good, it's certainly much better than Bush's 25% throughout 2008.

Obamacare may very well hurt Democrats in 2014 just as it did in 2010. But I don't think it will hurt them much, if at all, in 2016.
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