latest Betfair odds

[IceSpear]

Rubio now surging like mad in the GOP nomination market.

Yup. Those reading the tea leaves are starting to see the fix is in. If he finishes 2nd, I expect that to surge into the 60s/70s.

[IceSpear]

Cruz is only tied with Kasich now? Sheesh, that seems like a bit of an overreaction.

They have a good reason. I once thought Cruz was underrated too, but when you actually look at the nitty gritty, the math becomes very tough for him. Particularly since he just finished 3rd in a state he was either supposed to win or make very close.

[IceSpear]

Not surprising the market is finally learning to hedge against the "Trump collapsing!" narrative. They'll want some evidence first. Though it would be truly hilarious if this was the one time it turned out to be true.

I wonder how much of Sanders' odds are just people thinking Hillary will be indicted. Pretty much everything since Nevada has been dreadful news for him, but that 10-15% is shockingly resilient.

[IceSpear]

So Hillary is 4 below what presumptive nominee McCain was. I take it this means the market doesn't think the odds of indictment are very high. but muh indictment right around the corner!

[IceSpear]

#Clintonbelow90

It must be tough to be a Bernie supporter if this is the kind of stuff that gets you excited.

#Hillaryonly5belowunopposedpresumptivenomineeMcCain

[IceSpear]

Clinton still seems underpriced. Sure, Sanders could theoretically still win it, but it would take some very special circumstances and the chances of that are surely well below 10%.

Unopposed McCain, unopposed Romney, and unopposed Obama were only at 95-96% at points, so I think that's partly just a function of the market. The rest could be explained by people thinking she'll be indicted.

[IceSpear]

The VP markets are totally worthless.

[IceSpear]

Thank god Obama didn't pick Webb. Biden's/Ryan's placements tells you all you need to know about the validity of these VP markets...

I do find it interesting that Palin was #3. Wasn't the conventional wisdom once McCain picked her that she "came out of nowhere?"