Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread

[IceSpear]

So the generic ballot is either D +1 or R +11. Okay...

In addition, Politico has it a D +3 and Rasmussen has it at a tie.  R +11 seems to be an outlier unless we get more polls to confirm.

The AP also has R+8, and a Reason-Rupe poll released a little while ago had D+9.

Some pollsters are going to look really foolish in a little over a week...

[IceSpear]

CNN
LV: Dems lead 47-46
RV: Dems lead 49-43

Dominating!!

Also, the R+11 result in the NBC/WSJ journal isn't really a generic ballot question. They ask which party respondents want to control Congress, not which party they will be voting for. It should be clear why that wording would lead to a more Republican response at this point.

And Rasmussen has D+2 (43-41). The Dem wave is building!

I thought these pollsters were all going to herd towards some type of consensus toward the end, but it doesn't seem to be happening. This election just got even more unpredictable.

[IceSpear]

Apparently there's some confusion on Ras's poll. Their headline numbers say D+2, but their description says "Republicans have taken the lead on the generic ballot". Who knows which one is the typo.



The link to the article still isn't updated (it has last week's results), so clicking it does no good.

[IceSpear]

For anyone who was waiting with bated breath on Ras's actual result, it was R+2. I'm guessing RCP knew right away because they had a subscription and could actually read the article.

[IceSpear]

WaPo has R+6, more or less the same as their last poll (which was R+7).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-midterm-momentum-belongs-to-gop/2014/10/27/6cb63a74-5e0d-11e4-9f3a-7e28799e0549_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop

[IceSpear]

SHOCK POLL!!!!!!!!!!!!

FOX shows Democrats leading by 1 point on the generic ballot! (45-44)

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/28/fox-news-poll-voters-lack-confidence-in-obama-ebola-czar/

(Don't you love how they bury the lede in the description?)

[IceSpear]

CBS: R+8 (up from R+6 in their last poll).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/CBS_102914.pdf

This is gonna be a fun election night.

[IceSpear]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/majority-millennials-turn-obama-favor-gop-led-congress/story?id=26553815

Harvard poll says R+6 and R+4 for 18-29 year olds which ABC is selling as a story to the masses but is clearly a sign the poll is junk.

The Pathetics around here have gotten to the point where they are literally dismissing polls just because they dislike the findings.

Next Tuesday won't just be for enjoying the GOP Wave; it will be for praying by people like myself for the sad folks here.

So why do you think FOX and Pew show D+1 then? FOX may just be to get their base in a tizzy to make sure they vote, but Pew is a pretty high quality non partisan pollster.

[IceSpear]

WTF is up with the Congressional Ballot being so mixed?

I have no idea, it's extremely strange. In the past couple weeks we've gotten:

Pew: D+1
FOX: D+1
USA Today: D+1
CNN: D+1

CBS: R+8
WaPo: R+6
AP: R+8

The fact that there's clearly two distinct groups showing vastly different things is starting to make me think that "averaging" them may not be the best strategy. It could just be that one group is going to be right and the other wrong.

[IceSpear]

Final NBC/WSJ "generic ballot": R+1

Who wants to bet this will get nowhere near the coverage that ridiculous R+11 poll last week got?

It's actually a tie, 48-48. Their last poll back in early October was R+1 (48-47).

[IceSpear]

Final NBC/WSJ "generic ballot": R+1

Who wants to bet this will get nowhere near the coverage that ridiculous R+11 poll last week got?

It's actually a tie, 48-48. Their last poll back in early October was R+1 (48-47).

The problem is that they've been asked a generic ballot question ("who would you vote for in your district") and a preferred control question ("who would you prefer to control Congress") in their polls. Understandably the results have been very different and they've done a very, very bad job of actually distinguished between the two. So it's a tie in the generic ballot (from R+1 earlier in the month) and R+1 in the preferred control question (from R+11 earlier in the month).

Basically NBC/WSJ is horrible and I hate them.

Yeah, that really makes no sense at all.

[IceSpear]

I got polled today by YouGov and they asked questions about Obama's approval and a generic ballot question. So we might get another national YouGov poll tomorrow.

Yup, it got released. R+4 (46-42).

[IceSpear]

Ras's final poll has R+3 (44-41).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Considering everyone else is showing Dems up or the GOP up by huge margins, if it does end up being a moderately decent GOP result but not a landslide, looks like Ras will be our new generic ballot gold standard. lol

[IceSpear]

Ras's final poll has R+3 (44-41).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Considering everyone else is showing Dems up or the GOP up by huge margins, if it does end up being a moderately decent GOP result but not a landslide, looks like Ras will be our new generic ballot gold standard. lol

Producing a moderate hero result doesn't make an organization the gold standard for polling.

Regardless, if everyone else is dead wrong, they're still going to look better.