Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[IceSpear]

Unemployment down to 5.7% in PA.

[IceSpear]

New Muhlenberg poll shows little change

Wolf 41
Schwartz 16
McCord 11
McGinty 7

[IceSpear]

Just voted for Schwartz and Stack. Though I anticipate adding a Wolf for Governor picture in my sig tonight...

[IceSpear]

y'all seem to like stack.  Hopefully Wolf won't die in office, so it might not matter much.  Haven't we had enough lawyers already?  The whole point of becoming a Democrat long enough to vote in the primary is to help get rid of the one who is our governor already.

If you haven't voted yet, consider Mark Smith for LG.  Check out his badass guitar riffs:

http://www.marksmithforpa.com/  

Smith was actually my first choice. My vote for Stack was strategic, as he has the best chance of stopping Critz.

[IceSpear]

Stack has been declared the winner of the LG race.

And a new sig for me.

[IceSpear]

Impressive win.  Anything above 10% was good.  40% is gigantic.  Unstoppable in the General, barring a major scandal or Corbett pulling an elephant out of his hat.

Yeah, I'm stunned by his margin of victory. I don't think anyone expected a blowout of this magnitude. The polls really missed the boat on this one.

[IceSpear]

Crawley has 23K more votes than Corbett a lot of Republicans leaving Governor blank...

It would've been interesting to see how high Guzzardi would've gotten, but I guess that's why Corbett got him kicked off the ballot, to avoid an embarrassingly high showing.

In other news, Wolf has swept every county in the state. His closest call was Schwartz's home turf of Montgomery County, which he won by about 500 votes.

[IceSpear]

I just want to know how did Corbett get elected in 2010? What went wrong with the Onorato campaign?

Corbett was a popular sitting Attorney General who even got re-elected in the Dem wave of 2008, running in one of the best Republican years in decades (2010). It's only once he became governor that he tanked politically.

[IceSpear]

Crawley has 23K more votes than Corbett a lot of Republicans leaving Governor blank...

It would've been interesting to see how high Guzzardi would've gotten, but I guess that's why Corbett got him kicked off the ballot, to avoid an embarrassingly high showing.

In other news, Wolf has swept every county in the state. His closest call was Schwartz's home turf of Montgomery County, which he won by about 500 votes.

Well, I was going to cry for a map, but..... :-P

Wow, I though Schwartz would've at least won a couple counties in her district. Did she even beat McCord for second?

Yeah. There's still a few precincts outstanding, but it won't be enough to change the placements.

Wolf 57.9%
Schwartz 17.6%
McCord 16.9%
McGinty 7.7%

[IceSpear]

I'm still waiting for Wenzel or Vox Populi to show Corbett #dominating.

[IceSpear]

PPP is polling Pennsylvania this weekend.

Predictions:

Wolf 52
Corbett 39

Toomey 45
Sestak 42

Toomey 48
Kane 40

Hillary leads all Republicans by double digits, except Christie who she leads by 7.

[IceSpear]

Mike Fleck, the gay Republican who was defeated by a write-in challenger, will be running as a Democrat.

[IceSpear]

Looks like rather than Mark Pryor, Tom Corbett is the Blanche Lincoln of 2014. Complete with pundits hedging about the massive polling leads with cries of: "Never count out an incumbent!"

[IceSpear]

How big will Wolf's coattails be if he's winning by 20+ points? Republicans down ballot can't be happy about this.

They only have themselves to blame for not primarying him.

[IceSpear]

Luckily I live in SD-26 (D+2, incumbent Republican retiring), so my vote actually matters in Senate control.

While Republicans are definitely favored to hold the chamber, it is by no means a sure thing, with the gubernatorial race looming large. And while it's not known what effect Wolf's coattails will have, they certainly can't hurt.

[IceSpear]

Am I dreaming or Kane is leading Toomey by 2 point in the last PPP?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/wolf-leads-corbett-by-25-pa-supports-gay-marriage.html#more

LE SCANDAL

But leading Sestak by six? Come on. Kane being up has everyone scratching their head.

Apparently Pennsylvanians have very short memories. Despite being re-elected less than 2/4 years ago, 35% have no opinion of Casey or Toomey. 64% have no opinion of Sestak, whereas Kane is much closer to Toomey on name recognition (46% have no opinion), which I'm guessing is what explains the difference.

One seriously wonky thing about this poll is Corbett having a higher approval among African Americans (37-59) than whites (27-57).

[IceSpear]

One seriously wonky thing about this poll is Corbett having a higher approval among African Americans (37-59) than whites (27-57).

That is not that "wonky."

Corbett has done a bit better with African Americans than the average Republican.

1.  In 2008, he ran against Morganelli, who had some racial problems.  Morganelli led the fight to scuttle a Clinton nominated federal judge candidate, who was Black.

2.  This year, he is running against Wolf, who has some (minor) racial problems.

3.  Corbett's daughter was married to an African-American, and he has an adopted Black grandchild, who was trotted out in his campaign commercials.

That doesn't translate into Corbett winning North Philadelphia, but it may translate into Corbett doing slightly better here.

In the 2016 matchups Toomey wins between 31-39% of African Americans. He won 7% in 2010. It's much more likely to be statistical noise.

[IceSpear]

Change this race to Safe R

Wow, TX Conservative Dem sure looks prescient now. He knew this would happen along!

[IceSpear]

Decent news for Corbett, but it'll take a lot more than that to close a 20 point deficit.

[IceSpear]

Corbett getting creamed in a new F & M poll, down 22 points:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/poll_tom_wolf_governor_tom_cor.html#incart_m-rpt-1

#Corbettmentum

I saw an interesting idea a couple days ago...is it possible for the PAGOP to replace Corbett at the last second with somebody else? Obviously it almost certainly wouldn't be enough to win, but it could help them down ballot by eliminating Corbett's reverse coattails. What would be the cutoff for when they could possibly do this?

[IceSpear]

No recent news???

I'm sure once a poll shows Wolf winning by "only" 10-15 points, Phil and J.J. will be back to claim momentum.

[IceSpear]

No recent news???

I'm sure once a poll shows Wolf winning by "only" 10-15 points, Phil and J.J. will be back to claim momentum.

...

Point out one hackish thing I've said in this thread.

It was a joke.

[IceSpear]

Yougov has it Corbett 33, Wolf 42:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/07/tom_corbett_tom_wolf_poll_new.html#incart_m-rpt-1

I'm not crazy about their polling, they changed methodology, and would prefer F and M, but it could be a sign of closing.

Both Corbett and Wolf have been hitting the airwaves heavily.  Corbett is running against the General Assembly.

Actually it's 52-39 Wolf with leaners. Not that it matters since YouGov is crap.

[IceSpear]

F&M supposedly being released tomorrow. Bad. Really bad. Well over double digits.

Can't wait to see it.

Well, in their last poll he was trailing by 22, I'm sure he's doing better than that now. #Corbettmentum

[IceSpear]

F&M supposedly being released tomorrow. Bad. Really bad. Well over double digits.

Can't wait to see it.

Well, in their last poll he was trailing by 22, I'm sure he's doing better than that now. #Corbettmentum

Wow LOL, he couldn't even manage that. That's a genuine shocker.