NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[President Johnson]

This crosstabs gang are gonna be busy this summer

Well, if Trump was leading with more realistic crosstabs, I'd take it or at least would be more critical of Democrats not being more effective.

These polls look bad, and I wouldn't just discredit them because it looks that way, on the other hand, there's nothing wrong to closely examine them. As of now, it's undeniable Biden has a lot of work to do in the remaining months.

[President Johnson]

Biden should really hope that Trump is somehow dumb enough to pick that ho who shot her dog.

Nobody will care by November. There are several things that can cause Trump to lose, but that ain't one of them.

[President Johnson]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

I'm still very optimistic about the rust belt, but as a native Georgian, I'm very disheartened by the sunbelt polls.

Georgia has been trending blue for years, so I don't get why Trump is leading by even more than he won the state by in 2016 -- or even Mitt Romney's 2012 margin if you buy this poll. I also have no idea where Trump would make up that ground (and I know Georgia's political geography very well) so it's also confounding.

I mean, it's basically all compounded within the nonwhite sample. From what I've seen, most GA polls have Biden at or close to the 30% of white voters he needs to win the state. We've gotten a lot of recent GA polls having Trump only up 1-3, so call me crazy for saying that this is a clear outlier, and any poll that has him up nearly 10 in a swing state is.

Donald Trump's own internal had him up only 4 in Arizona, but we're going to believe he's up 6-9? At some people we need to stop being so overreactive here, but also the big doomers love to swarm these threads and get on their high horse (but are conspicuously absent in threads with good polls for Biden)

Polls consistently underestimate Trump's performances. Coupled with fuel prices staying fairly high and inflation being sticky, and Trump is in an enviable position. I always assume the worst-case scenario as a matter of course.

Well, but if these polls were off as the 2020 polling was to Trump's advantage, he'd be winning the election by more than any other since Reagan's reelection.