Should Germany move to a FPTP system

[President Johnson]

Unrelated to AfD, which would still win districts in the East, yes. I'd actually prefer a two-round system with direct popular vote similar to France rather than proportional representation. It just makes governing easier and strengthens MPs bound to their district.

More in general, I'd also prefer switching to a presidential system with the head of state and head of government being a single office holder elected by popular vote. I'd also change the Bundesrat (upper house, whose members are just state cabinet officers or appointed by state governments). Either reform the upper chamber or even abolish it entirely. I guess I'm in a minority with these opinions though.

Linke is probably dead anyway.

[President Johnson]

Unrelated to AfD, which would still win districts in the East, yes. I'd actually prefer a two-round system with direct popular vote similar to France rather than proportional representation. It just makes governing easier and strengthens MPs bound to their district.

More in general, I'd also prefer switching to a presidential system with the head of state and head of government being a single office holder elected by popular vote. I'd also change the Bundesrat (upper house, whose members are just state cabinet officers or appointed by state governments). Either reform the upper chamber or even abolish it entirely. I guess I'm in a minority with these opinions though.

Linke is probably dead anyway.

I assume you'd want a two-tier popular elections for President, with a runoff if no candidate wins greater than 50% in the first round. Because it would be less than ideal if an AfD candidate won the Presidency with only a third of the vote.

How would you want to reform the Bundesrat? Having members directly elected (presumably held at the same time as Bundestag elections) like the US Senate is one option that makes sense.  
 

Yes, obviously a runoff system for both presidential and parliamentary elections. That's why I cited France as an example, where presidential and legislative elections were held in two rounds each.

Direct election for Bundesrat members is certainly an option, though I'd also be open to state legislatures electing full-time members that serve fixed terms. Latter might even be preferrable since the Bundesrat isn't as powerful as the US senate. Some federal laws, including federal election law, don't need Bundesrat approval (especially laws that don't affect the states). In other cases, the Bundesrat only as an option to dissent, which the Bundestag can override. Depending on bill, either by a simple or 2/3 majority.

[President Johnson]

The AfD would benefit from a change to FPTP, at least with these polling numbers. So, this isn't an argument to change for the second worst system of all (only the Singapore system is worse than FPTP).

They would not have these polling numbers under FPTP

No, the causes for their current poll numbers are different. UKIP also polled well in the months and years before Brexit, around 10-15%, despite the UK not having proportional representation.

[President Johnson]

The AfD would benefit from a change to FPTP, at least with these polling numbers. So, this isn't an argument to change for the second worst system of all (only the Singapore system is worse than FPTP).

At the very least it wouldn't make that much of a difference.

In 2021, the AfD won 16 direct seats with a 10% result nationally.

The current constituency projection on election.de from May 26 gives the AfD 35 direct seats, almost twice as much as Greens and Left combined.

Not neccessarily though since it depends on actual election law. Usually you would have a majority vote, ergo no candidate receiving an absolute majority (which is just a minority of districts) would trigger a runoff election between first a second place. AfD may win the first round in several Eastern presincts with 20-35% of the vote, but would almost certainly lose to a CDU or SPD opponent in the second round. I guess a large majority of CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP voters would switch the Christian or Social Democrat to prevent the AfD from winning. Even in Saxony, AfD is far away from an actual majority. We've seen this not only in mayoral elections, but state elections as well were swing voters flocked to the party of the incumbent Minister-President to make sure AfD doesn't come in first (though we might see this in the upcoming 2024 state elections).

[President Johnson]

The AfD would benefit from a change to FPTP, at least with these polling numbers. So, this isn't an argument to change for the second worst system of all (only the Singapore system is worse than FPTP).

At the very least it wouldn't make that much of a difference.

In 2021, the AfD won 16 direct seats with a 10% result nationally.

The current constituency projection on election.de from May 26 gives the AfD 35 direct seats, almost twice as much as Greens and Left combined.

Not neccessarily though since it depends on actual election law. Usually you would have a majority vote, ergo no candidate receiving an absolute majority (which is just a minority of districts) would trigger a runoff election between first a second place. AfD may win the first round in several Eastern presincts with 20-35% of the vote, but would almost certainly lose to a CDU or SPD opponent in the second round. I guess a large majority of CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP voters would switch the Christian or Social Democrat to prevent the AfD from winning. Even in Saxony, AfD is far away from an actual majority. We've seen this not only in mayoral elections, but state elections as well were swing voters flocked to the party of the incumbent Minister-President to make sure AfD doesn't come in first (though we might see this in the upcoming 2024 state elections).

I was referring to First-past-the-post (FPTP) as in plurality voting. You are referring to a two-round system that is usually not covered under the term "first-past-the-post" in the English language. Perhaps a bit confusing since FPTP is often translated into Mehrheitswahlrecht in German, even though the term Mehrheitswahlrecht tends to cover both FPTP and multi-round/run-off systems.

Then I obviously got that wrong. I'm generally in favor of runoffs (or ranked choice) when you have more than two candidates competing. Even under proportional representation, it feels kind of odd candidates often win with pluralities way below 30%, so consequently more than 70% voted for someone else.