Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Johnson]

Nemtsov being alive would have made no difference in the past 8 years.  Him being president in 2000 might have though.

I agree. If he wasn't killed already, he'd either be in prison or in exile.

[President Johnson]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

NYT says pro Ukrainian groups did the nordstream sabotage. Tbh Russia was fairly quiet early on which actually made believe it wasn't a Russian false flag.

I actually hope this isn't true, even though there's no evidence that it was directed by the government or Zelensky was even aware of it. I'm afraid it would cause some backlash in Germany's public and may shrink support for aid.

[President Johnson]

1,500 per day, if true, is a lot more than the US lost per day in May 1968, the worst month of 'Nam. Let that sink in.

[President Johnson]

Are these high Russian losses confirmed by independent sources? Wouldn't surprise me though, since many of their drafted fighters completely lack any professional training and are essentially just sent to die for nothing.

I wonder how long that can sustain. At some point you'd expect their ability to continue the war exhausted.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1641047821007634432

[President Johnson]

What a surprise. NOT.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1655593919491592194

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Russia just banned Obama from entering the country. Where's he gonna spend in his summer vacation?

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1659615990307536899

[President Johnson]

Russia's prime minister was hosted in Beijing today. At this point, the West as a collective should seriously discuss sanctions against China. It's pretty clear the CCP supports Putin's imperialism and war crimes.

https://twitter.com/guyelster/status/1661248801838071808

[President Johnson]

How it started ...

2021: Russian military second strongest in the world

2022: Russian military second strongest in Ukraine

2023: Russian military second strongest in Russia

... how it's going.

[President Johnson]

I'm just saying one thing in general: The world is very fortunate a moron like Trump isn't president in this kind of international situation. Instead, there's a steady hand with decades of experience on foreign policy in the Oval Office, surrounded by an able and professional team.

[President Johnson]

Let's get one thing straight here: The Wagner Group are KILLERS! They are the equivalent to Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad. While Putin is a War Criminal I'd rather have him controlling Russia and his nuclear arsenal than Prigozhin and his Group!

The Wagner Forces tried to seize nuclear material from a storage facility 200-300 Miles southeast of Moscow. Fortunately for everyone the nuclear warheads were no longer there.

Ask yourself this Question: Would you rather have Putin in control of the nukes or a Milltant Group like Wagner!

Both are disgusting and guilty of war crimes, though Prigozhin at least admitted the so called Ukrainian aggression and NATO threat against Russia was a buch of nonsense and that the war never was about that. He also said Putin's war goals of regime change in Kyiv are delusional as Russia isn't going to take over Ukraine entirely.

That doesn't make him automatically a lesser evil, though unlike Putin he hasn't completely lost a sense of reality.

[President Johnson]

Interesting:

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1682088511317352451

[President Johnson]

I'm disappointed and upset about this. Haven't we still learned the lesson that appeasement doesn't work in dealing with Russia's terror regime?

https://twitter.com/Froschfriseur/status/1709632861798641929

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1734625764174176434?s=12
Oh hey Ukraine causality reports in line with Western assessments, again

That's massive, if true. It would be almost six times the number of US soldiers lost in Vietnam over a much longer period. Let that sink in for a moment. Usually the Russian people should storm the Kremlin and throw Putin in jail for killing his own people en masse.

[President Johnson]

We are unlikely to know the complete truth on this for months to come, let alone years.

Completely agree.

Usually I'm not into conspiracy theories and believe most of them (like on 9/11 or Kennedy) are nonsense, I think it's plausible the Russian themselves crashed the plane to kill Ukrainian prisoners. Since Putin and his cronies have no respect for any life, they didn't hesitate to sacrafice the lives of the few Russians on board.

[President Johnson]

I wonder why they even discuss troops on the ground instead of air strikes. Wouldn't that be more effective? A lack of air superiority has always been a weakspot for Ukraine. If a NATO member ever got involved, I'd launch a series of massive air strikes against Russian positions. That would also greatly limit losses, especially by using drones. I'm not a military expert, that would just make more sense to me. Of course it's theoretical as NATO would de facto become a party in the war. At latest when Russia tries to attack the bases or ships from where the drones or fighter jets are launched.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1782387420140298318

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1789723287565562087
Putin has replaced Shoigu. Noooooo he was Ukraine’s most valuable asset 😭

I thought they were buddies, but Putin probably trusts only himself.

[President Johnson]

Just found an interesting analysis on YouTube, which unfortunately is only available in German (Warum Russland nicht mehr lange durchhält (Why Russia can't hold out much longer). Interesting part starts at around minute 10).

It's a more optimistic analysis, but still interesting. The clip discusses the paradox of asymmetries in the triangle of Russia, Ukraine, and the West. Financially, Ukraine has fewer resources compared to Russia and the West, but despite minimal Western engagement, it remains relatively stable. The text also discusses the human resources factor, with the West providing limited support. The analysis suggests that Ukraine's sacrifice, coupled with the deep pockets of the West, creates a more stable situation compared to Russia. It also touches on Ukraine's military efforts and strategies to counter the Russian forces. It concludes that Russia's financial constraints and potential equipment shortages could shift the balance of the conflict in Ukraine's favor over time as the West ramps up its military production, while Russia is already on its limit (estimates that Russian military production can't even replace 20% of material losses). According to Michael Kofman, a military expert, Ukraine mainly has to get through 2024 before Russia is won't able to launch any more offensives.

[President Johnson]

Finally:

""The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons"

“'The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,' a U.S. official confirmed," @ErinBanco
 
https://politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731"

And ... Germany just followed, Scholz Government just issued permission to strike military targets inside Russia with German weapons:

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1796467331327017387