A major reason for two out of the last three bad Dem midterms was the extinction of rural Dixiecrats and Blue Dogs, most of which had been voting Republican at the top of the ticket since 1968.
Gun to my head: both the House and Senate are tossups which either party could win by no more than a handful of seats. The days of wave elections are likely over. But predicting the outcome of the House before the new districts have even been drawn is peak Atlas stupidity.
Agreed. And I think there's a case to make the first part now applies to Republicans vise versa if you replace "rurals" with "suburbs". Some of the 2018 flips like VA-10 or even GA-06 will stay Democratic even if Republicans take majority back. It's an ongoing realignment with changing voter coalitions.
