IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[President Johnson]

You guys... 18 pages. Well done, well done, Atlas. This thread will go down in Atlas history.

Now that being said, I think people shouldn't freak out over a poll from a state Joe Biden doesn't even need and was never really favored to begin with. I never thought his chances are beyond 25-30% in this state. Even Ohio is more winnable. This poll is certainly an outlier for reasons stated numerous times: Trump is winning IA-01 by freakin' 15%? Nope, that ain't happen. He didn't even come close to this margin in 2016. I also find it extremely questionable undecideds are in the double digits. In late October? Come on, man. And where is Joe Biden's drop coming from? It's not that he had a scandal or so. Otherwise, the previous poll was an outlier. Well, the September survey may have been as well, since early polling in Iowa has always shown a pattern to overestimate Democrats, get our hopes high, before we find ourselves burnt on election day.

However, I wouldn't be shocked if Trump Iowa by four or five points, in which case neither of recent polls would be that off. Trends are real, and Iowa is trending away from Democrats. I wonder it was even a swing state for most of recent decades, but with voter coalitions changing, a state that is 90% white and doesn't have large metros doesn't bode well for the Democrats. At the same time, growing and increasingly diverse states in the Sunbelt like Georgia, Texas and Arizona are trending to the left and will certainly vote to the left of Iowa this year, as they did in 2016. Heck, even Texas did so last time, and Uncle Joe will do much better than Hillary in the Lone Star State.

While I kinda understand the fear this poll, if accurate, has some bad implications for Wisconsin and Michigan, there is nothing that backs this up. Not only quality polls from said states don't back it up, nor do 2018 or even 2016 election results. I think the Doomers are freaking out because 2016 has traumatized them, and from a purely psychological perspective, we constantly need reaffirming evidence Trump is going to lose badly and that there is literally zero chance he can turn it around. And anything, even a polls from a non-tipping point state that may suggest otherwise, creates a lot anxiety. And sometimes these emotions run over hard facts and numbers. It's human nature in a sense. Most of red and a decent number of maroon and green avatars just want the orange clownshow to end.

If anything, this poll makes the 413 Authoritarian Nut map less likely than it already was. But all things considered, Biden is still poisoned to crack 300 electoral votes. Trump's reelection chances remain very dim to say the least.

[President Johnson]

I wonder whether there was last minute shift toward Trump, since their September poll showed a de facto tie? Trump was certainly gaining a little in national polls to the end.