CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[President Johnson]

Will Orange County stay in the No column? The margin somewhat decreased after the latest update.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1438897970989109253

Very sceptical Newsom won noncollege whites in 2018 by 10 percentage points

"I love the poorly educated."

[President Johnson]

It's so hilarious John "1000 pound bear" Cox has expressed interest in running again in 2022, per San Diego Union-Tribune. Is this guy's life so boring he has nothing else to do?

[President Johnson]

Interestingly the California recall and Canada snap election had one thing in common: An election called early to change the current status leading to almost the exact same result as some two years ago.

[President Johnson]

For some reason Wikipeedia lists John Chiang as a candidate, but I couldn't find additional indication he's running again.

[President Johnson]

John Cox is not running.

I wonder who the GOP unites behind now?

Faulconer if they want any chance.

Doubtful. More likely he'd end up like Kashkari in 2014. Newsom would still win by at least 15-17 points, if not closer 20 points since Faulconer wouldn't excite die-hard Trump Republicans. And there are still a bunch of them in a state as big as California.

[President Johnson]

Faulconer is officially out
https://twitter.com/JeremyBWhite/status/1502134116438867968
Looks like the stage is set for this to be a Newsom vs Dahle Showdown.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/10/newsom-recall-2022-california-governors-race-00016417

Would actually be hilarious if Newsom faces some random guy who nobody ever heard of and who never held any political office.

[President Johnson]

I see that the CAGOP, with characteristic wisdom, are supporting as their gubernatorial candidate…a state senator from Lassen County.

You can almost track the trajectory of the CAGOP just by their gubernatorial candidates:

2006: Incumbent Governor from Los Angeles
2010: Businesswoman from Silicon Valley
2014: Investment banker from Orange County
2018: Businessman from Orange County
2022: State Sen. from Lassen County

By the same token for Dems:

2006: State Treasurer from LA..
2010: Former Governor from the Bay Area (East Bay)
2014: Re-Election
2018: Lt. Governor from the Bay Area (SF)
2022: Re-election

So 2026...hmmm, which Bay Area sort will it be this time?

Eleni Kounalakis, London Breed, Fiona Ma or Rob Bonta?

[President Johnson]

Will Newsom get over 50% in the primary? I'd guess he ends up around 54%.

[President Johnson]

Results can also be found at the SoS website here: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/

Newsom currently at 59% of the vote with 62% in, facing Brian Dahle (R) in Nov.

All other Dems seeking reeletion, including Padilla, have a major lead.

Don't need to tell you who I voted for

Newsom at 56.3% now, Dahle a distant 2nd at 16.8%.

Seems like this is the final number?

If so, Newsom slightly overperformed Jerry Brown in 2014, the first election with the jungle primary and the only other one so far with a Democratic governor running for reelection.