NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[President Johnson]

This is beyond embarrassing, especially with Democrats doing much better nationally than expected. Anyway, a win is a win and nobody can take the title from first elected woman governor from Kathy anymore!

[President Johnson]

Would James have done better if nominated? Maybe Hochul was just too uninspiring after all.

Not sure, she's just 2-3 points ahead of Hochul's vote share so far. Even Schumer is only at 56%. Seems like a general underperformance by statewide Democrats. It's not just Hochul.

[President Johnson]

Would James have done better if nominated? Maybe Hochul was just too uninspiring after all.

Not sure, she's just 2-3 points ahead of Hochul's vote share so far. Even Schumer is only at 56%. Seems like a general underperformance by statewide Democrats. It's not just Hochul.

are there still a lot of mail ballots like in 2020?

CNN says 92% are in. So even if the Democratic candidates get the lion's share here, Hochul won't win by double digits and Schumer and James just barely.

[President Johnson]

Dems really need need to do an autopsy here how that could have happened. Schumer also underperformed.

https://twitter.com/ZachReports/status/1590797740921229312?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

NY Dems don't want to take the blame coming their way.

Disappointing. Wasn't it already controversial to leave Jacobs in office after Cuomo resigned?

They should really get to the bottom of the underperformance by all statewide Democrats. Even Schumer has not done well for his standards.

[President Johnson]

I happen to agree here... actually for longer thought State Senator Jessica Ramos would be a rising star of New York Democrats. Probably worth keeping an eye on her.

https://twitter.com/jessicaramos/status/1590744097438199814

[President Johnson]

Did we ever end up getting final results?

I thought they're already in. For governor it's 52.4%-46.7%. Around 326k raw votes difference.

[President Johnson]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

It's pretty clear from the results that many blacks and especially hispanics didn't bother to come out to vote this year in New York.

Do you think the Democratic message just failed to resonate in these comminities or did Democrats seem not to bother turning them out? In retrospect, I feel like the Democratic slate of candidate just took the state for granted. Sure, it was always Safe Democratic, but you should also try to win by as much as possible.

[President Johnson]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

It's pretty clear from the results that many blacks and especially hispanics didn't bother to come out to vote this year in New York.

Do you think the Democratic message just failed to resonate in these comminities or did Democrats seem not to bother turning them out? In retrospect, I feel like the Democratic slate of candidate just took the state for granted. Sure, it was always Safe Democratic, but you should also try to win by as much as possible.

IMO it's just normal midterm dynamics. Nonwhite turnout is the first to fall in a midterm like this so it's not surprising to me that in a safe blue state that normal midterm dynamics prevailed

That's certainly a factor, though even 2014 and 2010 were better for Democrats. Especially 2010, when Cuomo destroyed Paladino by 30 points.

[President Johnson]

Is this guy that was nominated really that bad? I used to like Hochul, but perhaps she's not as good as I thought. Meh. Maybe Democrats can have a fresh start all over in 2026. I'm just not sure who would offer such? Maybe State Senator Jessica Ramos? She seems reasonably progressive, but not from the toxic faction. Also checks a few boxed and is relatively young.

[President Johnson]

I can't believe I have to say this, but this was almost certainly not Hochul being a conservadem (though she very much is). This is Hochul trying to check off a few identity representation boxes with this appointment instead.

She still pretty much moved to the left compared to her tenure in the House though.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellNY/status/1620268450668232705

Completely abhorrent

EDIT: It passed pretty overwhelmingly though so she might get overridden?

What are the specifics of that bill? I either couldn't find an independent report or access was denied to EU copyright laws.

[President Johnson]

Hochul should give this a rest. I don't know why he's wasting that much political capital for a guy who's according to most Atlas Democrats medicore at best (obviously I can't judge him, so relying on the posts here). Somehow it feels like she bungled a good start after taking over from Cuomo. Maybe it's time for someone new in four years?

[President Johnson]

Wilson argued the old 22-4 map was not a gerrymander in his dissent LMAO. The new map is getting overturned.

You mean the current map and the Hochulmander will be restored? Ergo, good news for Democrats in 2024?