NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[President Johnson]

Just got my first ad for Hochul. Basically is betting on liberal turnout in NYC, which tbf is all she needs given NYC.

For the primary? I guess she's definitely sweeping Upstate, as she did in the 2018 lt. governor primary. I could see her losing the Bronx to Williams here, though he won't do nearly as well as four years ago statewide. Still expacting him to place before Suozzi.

[President Johnson]

Last night was the first Gubernatorial debate.

According to the New York Times, Hochul came away the winner. Neither Suozzi nor Williams did particularly well, but it doesn't look like Suozzi did any real harm to his candidacy. It looks Williams might have actually done himself some damage though.

That said, unless Hochul bombs in the next debate, or there is a major scandal, she should easily win the primary.

Yeah, unless something big happens between now and June 28 (very doubtful), she should run away with it. Fully earned, I might add.

Here's the video of the debate:

[President Johnson]

Not that surprising, though the New York Times editorial board endorsed Williams in the 2018 lt. governor primary (but Cuomo for governor and James for AG).

https://twitter.com/nytopinion/status/1536270822180012032

[President Johnson]

Not directly campaign-related, but this picture is so cute

https://twitter.com/GovKathyHochul/status/1537198586018074626

[President Johnson]

Random question: Who do you guys think Cuomo will vote for here?

I'm almost 100% convinced he votes for Suozzi. Definitely not Hochul in my view, because he kept underestimating her and wanted to dump her in 2018 already. Sources also say that before the resignation she was told to be off the 2022 ticket. Cuomo loves being center-stage and probably hates the fact that she has consolidated that much support in less than a year in office. And well, it's obvious he won't vote for Jumaane.

And if I had to guess, Cuomo will leave the Attorney General ballot empty and outright vote for the Republican in November. He'll never forgive Tish James.

[President Johnson]

Leaving this here ahead of the primary tomorrow

Hochul wasn’t supposed to have it this easy

The state's first female governor holds a commanding lead in polls, endorsements and fundraising.

ALBANY, N.Y. — New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s path to Tuesday’s Democratic primary was not expected to be so smooth.

Last fall, she faced the prospect of a major challenger in Attorney General Tish James and questions over whether becoming the unexpected governor when Andrew Cuomo resigned last August would translate into support among voters who hardly knew her.

Flash forward to now: The state’s first female governor appears set to cruise through her primary against Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, using the likely win as a springboard toward the general election in November.

She holds a commanding lead in polls, endorsements and fundraising. But she also hasn’t had to put in the work required in a competitive primary, leaving her to make a cold start against the ultimate Republican nominee.

If she wins the primary and wins again in November, she would become one of the most powerful female governors in the nation, with a sweeping platform to counteract a potential Republican takeover of Congress on key Democratic issues that include gun control, abortion rights and climate change.

[...]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/27/hochul-new-york-governor-primary-00041447

Parts of the article are good, though the suggestion statewide races will be "difficult" for Democrats are nonsense. National environment may be not that great, but we're talking about New York here while Zeldin is anything but a Pataki. Hochul, and with her Schumer, James and DiNapoli, should easily win this.

[President Johnson]

Leaving this here ahead of the primary tomorrow

Hochul wasn’t supposed to have it this easy

The state's first female governor holds a commanding lead in polls, endorsements and fundraising.

ALBANY, N.Y. — New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s path to Tuesday’s Democratic primary was not expected to be so smooth.

Last fall, she faced the prospect of a major challenger in Attorney General Tish James and questions over whether becoming the unexpected governor when Andrew Cuomo resigned last August would translate into support among voters who hardly knew her.

Flash forward to now: The state’s first female governor appears set to cruise through her primary against Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, using the likely win as a springboard toward the general election in November.

She holds a commanding lead in polls, endorsements and fundraising. But she also hasn’t had to put in the work required in a competitive primary, leaving her to make a cold start against the ultimate Republican nominee.

If she wins the primary and wins again in November, she would become one of the most powerful female governors in the nation, with a sweeping platform to counteract a potential Republican takeover of Congress on key Democratic issues that include gun control, abortion rights and climate change.

[...]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/27/hochul-new-york-governor-primary-00041447

Parts of the article are good, though the suggestion statewide races will be "difficult" for Democrats are nonsense. National environment may be not that great, but we're talking about New York here while Zeldin is anything but a Pataki. Hochul, and with her Schumer, James and DiNapoli, should easily win this.

Well the NY Dems are internally quite worried about the general election. They know Hochul needs to run a strong race to bring some state senators and house members up with her. She'll win but it'll be difficult to win big, which is what they want. Thats when cuomo's allies will strike.

Depends on what "win big" means. Obviously she won't win by 30, but I'm sure by double digits. I guess she'll end up between 56% and 60% of the vote and Zeldin between 36% and 41%.

[President Johnson]

I wonder by how much Hochul wins and whether she'll lose some counties? I guess she'll sweep Upstate and may lose Suffolk narrowly to Suozzi, perhaps the Bronx to Williams. Otherwise, she should get an absolute majority quite easily.

[President Johnson]

This was an amazing performance by Kathy Hochul, swept all counties and did very well in Upstate and on Long Island as well. I always insisted that people underestimated her political skills, this victory was hard work and fully earned. She has done pretty well in working with the legislature to get things done and has managed to score up important endorsements by reaching out to various groups.

I don't see the general election remotely competitive or Zeldin as a particularly strong candidate for New York. Just don't see it, he's a generic Republican hack with a strongly pro-Trump voting record and no real accomplishments. Although primaries are not really predictive for general matchups, Hochul should bring this home quite handily.

If she does end up with a strong victory and continues to get stuff done in Albany, I see no reason why she shouldn't be put in national spotlight. She might be one of the strongest Democratic women available then, and certainly stronger than Kamala. Her workingclass background from Buffalo might also be an asset here, and - though that's my personal opinion - comes off as a very likeable person.

Lastly, I was surprised by Delgado's strong performance. I thought he'd only win narrowly. People should keep an eye on him as well. He could go for governor or senator at a point when one seat is open.

[President Johnson]

This was an amazing performance by Kathy Hochul, swept all counties and did very well in Upstate and on Long Island as well. I always insisted that people underestimated her political skills, this victory was hard work and fully earned. She has done pretty well in working with the legislature to get things done and has managed to score up important endorsements by reaching out to various groups.

I don't see the general election remotely competitive or Zeldin as a particularly strong candidate for New York. Just don't see it, he's a generic Republican hack with a strongly pro-Trump voting record and no real accomplishments. Although primaries are not really predictive for general matchups, Hochul should bring this home quite handily.

If she does end up with a strong victory and continues to get stuff done in Albany, I see no reason why she shouldn't be put in national spotlight. She might be one of the strongest Democratic women available then, and certainly stronger than Kamala. Her workingclass background from Buffalo might also be an asset here, and - though that's my personal opinion - comes off as a very likeable person.

Lastly, I was surprised by Delgado's strong performance. I thought he'd only win narrowly. People should keep an eye on him as well. He could go for governor or senator at a point when one seat is open.

I agree with your assessment. I was surprised both of them won every county. She should win fairly easily.

I've met Hochul. She is extremely likable.

Delgado very likely will run for Governor or Senator. I think the former is more probable.

Could also depend on how long Hochul is in office since Delgando has plenty of time while Tish James may give it another shot whenever the seat opens. I personally would favor James to replace Merrick Garland though.

[President Johnson]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

Aren't these suburban countries with upper middle class whites that tend to the political center? How would a right-wing candidate like Zeldin appeal to them? I feel like Hochul is a good fit for that.

[President Johnson]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

Aren't these suburban countries with upper middle class whites that tend to the political center? How would a gard-right candidate like Zeldin appeal to them? I feel like Hochul is a good fit for that.

Zeldin is from Long Island, so he should have strong regional support in both Nassau and Suffolk.

Richmond is much further to the right than both Nassau and Suffolk, quite honestly, and I'd be surprised if Hochul even comes within ten points there.

As for Richmond (Staten Island), I definitely agree. It heavily leans Republican.

[President Johnson]

Interesting.

"For the first time in 80 years, the gubernatorial race will only be a two-way contest. Only Kathy Hochul (D) and Lee Zeldin (R/C) qualified for the ballot."

So after all, Hochul has a chance to crack 60% of the vote?

[President Johnson]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

Aren't these suburban countries with upper middle class whites that tend to the political center? How would a right-wing candidate like Zeldin appeal to them? I feel like Hochul is a good fit for that.

It’s not an ideology thing, it’s a regionalism upstate vs downstate thing. Cuomo was the downstate candidate, Molinaro was the upstate candidate. The results reflected that. This time it’s reversed. Hochul is also far western, from Buffalo/Niagara. I wouldn’t be surprised if she wins Niagara while losing Nassau.

Remember that Paladino won in Erie County in 2010 while losing massively statewide.

I think I even read that this was a reason Cuomo picked Hochul in 2014. Erie subsequently flipped blue, but Cuomo lost a ton of Upstate counties.

[President Johnson]

911? I'd like to report a murder. lol
https://twitter.com/KathyHochul/status/1547694016451358723

Textbook sexism here. That "somebody's wife" is gonna trounce you big time in November, you clown.

[President Johnson]

If Hochul wins, NY will continue to be run into the ground

I think she's been very good so far and is easily the best of the previous four Democratic governors since 2007 (although that's not a particularly high bar).

It's almost certainly not an "if", but a "when". She's going to cakewalk this.

[President Johnson]

Today marks exactly one year of Kathy Hochul as governor. She was actually not supposed to have it that easy, especially in the primary. Actually a pattern of her career, she was constantly underestimated.

[President Johnson]

Today marks exactly one year of Kathy Hochul as governor. She was actually not supposed to have it that easy, especially in the primary. Actually a pattern of her career, she was constantly underestimated.

Agreed. I thought it would be a much more crowded primary and much closer than it was.

I was locked in a room with Tish James on Valentine's Day (long story) and she made it very clear that Cuomo's allies forced her out of the race. I don't think this was an "underestimation" of Hochul, just Cuomo's long revenge.

I don't know, how are Cuomo allies supposed to "push her out"? And why in favor of Hochul, who was not very liked by him either (already wanted to dump her from the ticket in 2018). James withdrew because she didn't gain traction and her candidacy seemed unnecessary against a scandal-free governor (and first woman chief executive) who just took over the positions and was about clean things up. Unlike Williams and Suozzi, she didn't even oppose Hochul for ideological reasons.

Hochul played her cards very wisely right after taking office, not just by managing to raise a ton of money, which James failed at. She also established many personal relations into the state legislature, which allowed her to get things done quickly. She also built a solid network of connections all over state, which she crisscrossed during her time as lt. governor (as such, she was barely in Albany and just out meeting a lot of people and leaders from all walks of life, promoting the government's agenda).

[President Johnson]

Its over

Over? It has never begun.

[President Johnson]

Hochul is doing worse than I thought she would at the beginning of the year, but I still don't think Zeldin has any real chance of winning. She might still improve on Cuomo's abysmal upstate performance in 2018, but even that is questionable.

More seems like polling is flawed in safe states, just like Washington state, Oklahoma and - to a lesser extent - South Carolina. Zeldin doesn't strike me as strong opponent since he's way out of the New York mainstream, having voted to overturn the 2020 election and on right end of the political spectrum on all major issues. I'd be really surprised with a margin smaller than 15%.

[President Johnson]

It’s not a real possibility. Hochul will win easily but, at least in my circles (NYC liberals mostly) there is no enthusiasm for her and people generally don’t think highly of her. I imagine almost all will still vote for her though.

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. I'm not enthusiastic about Hochul but I'm still voting for her (and Democrats straight down the ballot).

May I ask what's your explanation why some apparently not that thrilled about Hochul?

To me it seems that she has done a good job including a few legislative wins during her short period of time in the driver's seat. She's also the first woman as governor and ideologically pretty much in the mainstream of the party, neither a DINO nor far-left. Hochul generally strikes me as a likeable personal capable of connecting with average people. In my opinion, she deserves a strong mandate.

[President Johnson]

It’s criminal bronz can’t offer his insights on this election.

I wonder what his predictions for State Island, Nassau and Suffolk Counties are. And how the police vote is going to break down.

[President Johnson]

I would actually love to see so many heads explode here if Hochul still ends up winning by my initial prediction: 58-42%.

[President Johnson]

Hochul will win easily. Why is there so much nonsense being said and discussed in here?

The narrative this might be competitive just seems fun to some. Gonna be a disappointment coming Tuesday.

[President Johnson]

There's hasn't been much talk about the Attorney General race here lately... James is obviously safe, but if Hochul actually underperforms, will James do much better? I guess Schumer will have the best performance of all statewide Democrats, including DiNapoli.