🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

Winfried Kretschman and Greens in BaWü are expected to announce their decision with whom to start coalition negotiations tomorrow. Either a continuation with the (weakened) CDU or a trafficlight coalition with SDP and FDP. There were talks with all four potential partners since the election, which went over pretty smoothly with no insider stuff leaking. All sides just said the talks were constructive and occurred in good faith. So it's pretty much 50/50 at this point, though I expect negotiations with the CDU. However, I hope for a Green-SPD-FDP government.

In RP, there are already talks going on between SPD, Greens and FDP to continue the governing coalition.

[President Johnson]

Winfried Kretschman and Greens in BaWü are expected to announce their decision with whom to start coalition negotiations tomorrow. Either a continuation with the (weakened) CDU or a trafficlight coalition with SDP and FDP. There were talks with all four potential partners since the election, which went over pretty smoothly with no insider stuff leaking. All sides just said the talks were constructive and occurred in good faith. So it's pretty much 50/50 at this point, though I expect negotiations with the CDU. However, I hope for a Green-SPD-FDP government.

In RP, there are already talks going on between SPD, Greens and FDP to continue the governing coalition.

Aaand... it's gonna be another green-black coalition.

I knew this was coming. Too bad, since a trafficlight coalition would have been a true chance for innovation, environmental protection and social safety in one package. I'm disappointed.

[President Johnson]

Final prediction:

CDU: 26.7%
AfD: 25.5%
Die Linke: 11.7%
Greens: 9.5%
SPD: 9.2%
FDP: 6.6%

[President Johnson]

I hope the Greens flop big time to stop their momentum.

[President Johnson]

[President Johnson]

I hope the Greens flop big time to stop their momentum.

You jinxed it.

Well, unfortunately, the SPD won't benefit with this disastrous result.

This result is a huge relief for Armin Laschet though.

[President Johnson]

It's interesting that all Minister-Presidents since spring 2017 have been reelected so far. The incumbency is a huge factor these days, especially with this party system.

[President Johnson]

#EastGermanyTitanGenosseOlaf

[President Johnson]

Exit polls show that most voters, including 53% of CDU voters, want a "Germany coalition" between CDU-SPD-FDP, while just 39% of latter want a continuation of the Kenya coalition.

[President Johnson]

New numbers, little movement:

[President Johnson]

Update; the number of seats is now 95 and not 83. A CDU-SPD coalition would have a narrow majority.

[President Johnson]

I'm confident there will be a black-red coalition without the FDP. Latter has indicated not to enter a coalition government for the sake of bolstering Haseloff's majority. I'm not even aware there is any precedent in German history that a party was added to the government not needed to reach a majority.

[President Johnson]

Greens have now officially declined to join another Kenya coalition. FDP also de facto ruled out a Germany coalition. This leaves Haselhoff with either Black-Red or Jamaica coalition. The former is definitely most likely at this point.

[President Johnson]

Saxony-Anhalt will probably get a Germany coalition: Coalition negotiations are set to begin soon.
It already had seemed like a coalition of CDU/SPD would be the less likely option, as this constellation doesn't have a majority in most state legislature committees.

It's worth mentioning that CDU and SPD alone would have a very narrow majority themselves (49 out of 97 seats; the slimest possible). After initially declining to join a coalition, the FDP quickly walked back. If I recall correctly, this is the first governing coalition that has one partner more than actually needed for a majority. At least in most recent history, and relatively uncommon in Germany.

[President Johnson]

The Landtag of Thuringia will not be dissolved. After the red-red-green minority government formed the stability pact with the Christian Democrats following the governmental crisis in February 2020, it was originally planned to schedule elections for 26 September, coinciding with the federal elections.

Four CDU and two Linke deputies opposed the dissolution, with the 2/3 majority needed for the dissolution not possible to achieve without the votes of the AfD - which supports a dissolution.
Hence, R2G retracted the motion for dissolution to not be dependent on the votes from the far-right.

On 26 September, we'll thus have elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as of now.
A dissolution of the Landtag in Thuringia might theoretically still be achievable if Bodo Ramelow submits a motion of confidence.

What a circus. The real reason CDU MPs blocked the vote is because they're afraid of losing their mandates. As simple as that. The entire situation is basically on the CDU in my opinion and Laschet stays out as well. The CDU didn't even renew the "stability pact" with the minority government so far and isn't very likely to do so. At least the FDP has signaled willingness to negotiate a budget.

It's doubtful Ramelow submits his resignation or demands a confidence vote, especially since he's about to become President of the Bundesrat in fall.

[President Johnson]

AfD Thuringia will introduce a motion of no confidence against Minister-President Bodo Remelow this week. The motion would only succeed with a majority of votes (46 of 90) electing a successor and the AfD has proposed Björn Bernd Höcke. It's doomed to fail obviously, as CDU and FDP have rejected the move immediately.

[President Johnson]

These polls are insane. Never thought my party would get 40% anywhere anymore. I hope MV gets a trafficlight coalition and no longer SPD-CDU. Kinda surprising the Greens are so weak there.

It will be interesting to watch if MV and Berlin both go for the SPD; Manuela Schwesig and Franziska Giffey will definitely play an even bigger role in the party and national politics. Both are pragmatic women in their mid 40s with experience and proven ability to win. Both could very well be chancellor material in the future. I like both, though slightly prefer Giffey. Seems like her doctorate issue hasn't damaged her.

[President Johnson]

Meanwhile in AfD: the head of the Berlin branch apparently thinks Berlin and Warsaw should jointly host the Olympics... in 2036. I have some doubts as to the viability of this proposal.

Lmao, they're not even trying to hide anymore, aren't they? It's a disgrace this party has as much support as it does.

[President Johnson]

Another Berlin poll. The previous one with SPD and Greens nearly tied was probably an outlier. I hope Giffey will form a trafficlight coalition.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438898537295712265


SPD headed for a landslide in MV:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438900196402995214

[President Johnson]

Berlin result:





So Franziska Giffey pretty much has the opportunity to form a government of three parties of her choice. I'm not sure RRG will continue, so either "Kenya" with Greens and CDU or "Germany coalition" with CDU and FDP are possible. The incumbent RRG government has pretty weak approvals and Giffey ran a campaign closer to the center and expressing openess for a Germany coalition.


MV:





Not much to say, it's up to Manuela Schwesig to chose between CDU or Die Linke. I doubt there will be a trafficlight coalition with three partners since two two-party coalitions are possible.


Overall strong results for the SPD, though Berlin was closer in the end than expected. I'm glad both Schwesig and Giffey won and see both as future chancellor material. However, now it's Genosse Olaf's turn!

[President Johnson]

What's the odds of SPD-Grüne coalition in Berlin and Mecklenburg?

Both not arithmetically possible. In Berlin, it seems to either be SPD-Greens-Linke or SPD-CDU-FDP, while in MV there is a chance for both SPD-CDU and SPD-Linke.

SPD in MV would've clashed with the Greens anyways - Manuela Schwesig is a vocal supporter of North Stream 2.

In Berlin, there also a chance for a Kenya coalition with Greens and the CDU.

[President Johnson]

Some news out of Berlin: Apparently SPD and Greens differ on the question for a third coalition partner. While Greens would prefer to continue the partnership with Die Linke, most SPD leaders including Governing Mayor designate Franziska Giffey aim a trafficlight coalition with the FDP. Talks with the latter already happened and are expected to continue.

[President Johnson]

Two new state polls suggest massive SPD gains, mostly at Green expense. CDU continues to struggle.

Baden-Württemberg (note that the next election is in 2026):

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1447863355067277315


More important: NRW (next election in May 2022, Laschet's successor Hendrick Wüst won't have much time to turn it around):

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1447854970972352512

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Bavaria not looking good for Sönnenkönig Söder at this point, though he has plently of time to turn it around. But it disproves the myth that Söder is so popular.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1447977540765769731

[President Johnson]

With the end of the pre-negotiations in MV, Manuela Schwesig just announced that she will go into formal coalition negotiations with Die Linke. SPD and Linke (then PDS) had governed the state until 2006, ever since there has been a Grand Coalition.

I think the Bundesrat may have played a role in that decision as well since each state government with CDU participation could be an obstracle for a potential trafficlight coalition. Die Linke as junior partner in this Schwesig government would be easier to handle for a federal government that is led by Olaf Scholz.