🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

More polls for RP and BW:

Looks good for the Malu Dreyer and the SPD to retain power, while Kretschmann is crusing to a third term. It's incredible how he crushes Eisenmann one on one.

Ha, I was a bit quicker!

Agreed, RLP looks like a redux of 2016 in terms of the Social Democrats' recovery. Kind of surprised that a Free Voter Association could make it into a Landtag beyond Bavaria and Brandenburg, but we'll see whether they'll actually make it.

As Hades pointed out with regards to the previous polls, the voting behavior of most FDP voters is kind of syncretic. In RLP both in 2016 and now, they seem to prefer a CDU led government over one led by SPD, but the Liberals gain instead of losing support. Might be connected to their nationwide recovery. Could very well see them break 10 % again in the federal elections if the current trend holds on.

RLP would probably be a traffic light coalition once again, while the result in BW both allows a Green-Black and a traffic light coalition. A return of Green-Red, a Green-Yellow majority and a "Germany coalition" of CDU, SPD and FDP are within the margin of error though (doubt the latter two are realistic).

It will be interesting to see which coalition is formed in Baden-Württemberg. Unlike in 2016, the FDP actually indicated to be open for talks with Greens and the SPD. I'd definitely prefer a traffic light coalition to the current since the CDU is often blocking good policy. Not to mention how poorly Eisenmann has handled schools in the pandemic compared to other states.

"Germany coalition" is definitely not happening, especially if the Greens come in first again, which is very likely at this point. It's plain obvious voters want Kretschmann at helm and expect the parties to act accordingly. I just wonder whether he'll serve the full term or retire a year or two ahead of the next election to allow his successor to run as the incumbent MP. However, their bench is rather thin at this point, or at least there is nobody who's well known and widely popular. Personally I'd prefer Cem Özdemir, who's a prime example for successful integration and a center-left pragmatist.

[President Johnson]

Furthermore, I think the FDP can't necessarily be counted as part of the right-wing bloc. They're pretty liberal on social issues and staunchly oppose nationalism and the AfD. And while the Union and FDP once were "dream partners" that has changed in recent years both due personell and platforms. They're no longer as close as they once were. It will be interesting to see whether a traffic light coalition also becomes a serious option in BaWü after the election. The FDP has indicated to be open for talks, in stark contrast to 2016.

[President Johnson]

I appreciate the responses from the German posters in this thread (and its sister). I guess I am just going to have to agree to disagree

Tbh it doesn't help that I have a big allergy to grand coalitions other than in very limited circumstances since they kill the junior partner (which happened to be the SPD in Germany) and make extreme parties increase; as well as for some reason me perhaps wrongly seeing the rise of Grüne at least partially as a symbol and clearest example of everything wrong with the modern (European) left (losing working class voters in favour of wealthy bourgeoise voters in cities and hipstery youths).

The SPD also kills the CDU on the other hand, if the Christian Democrats act as their junior partner, as it happened in Brandenburg and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Junior partners are screwed most of the time, especially in governments with high approval ratings. That's just because all the positive news get associated with the head of government. All junior partners under Merkel suffered from this effect, as did The Left in Brandenburg in 2019 or the CDU now in BaWü. There are just few exceptions to the contrary in recent years, like Hesse in 2018, which was an election under different dynamics.

[President Johnson]

I hope the CDU totally collapses, especially in BW. Dropping to the low 20s would be so hilarious in a state they governed for 58 years until 2011. However, it would weaken Armin Laschet, whose clearly preferable to Söder. But maybe a cratering CDU and the scandals change the dynamics at the federal level. Just remember that Schulzmentum in 2017 faded because the SPD blew three state elections in the months leading up to the Bundestag election.

[President Johnson]

Predictions:

Baden-Württemberg:
Greens: 34.5%
CDU: 25.1%
AfD: 12.0%
SPD: 10.5%
FDP: 9.0%


Rheinland-Pfalz:
SPD: 32.7%
CDU: 28.9%
Greens: 10.5%
AfD: 7.8%
FDP: 7.0%

[President Johnson]

Just came back from the voting booth. Actually wanted to vote by mail, but I missed requesting a ballot in advance and actually prefer going to the polling station. No waiting line, and it was done in a few minutes despite Covid safety measures.

It was great to vote for a personal friend from my early days in the party, who's running as the SPD's candidate in our district (BaWü just has one vote for a candidate and party, and the seat allocation is kinda complicated). It's possible he actually gets in, though not easy. With that being said, as a 26 year old city council member he ran an incredible campaign over the past year with countless digital events, knocked on thousands of doors and actually invited voters to his home under Covid measures. I did my part to help him within the range of my possibilities. We'll havr to see what happens now, but he definitely deserves a win.

[President Johnson]

Which are the districts/cities of you 2 guys ?

Mine is Leonberg-Herrenberg (German Wikipedia). Essentially the whole Landkreis (county) with Böblingen-Sindelfingen excluded, which is an own district in state elections (but not at the federal level).

[President Johnson]

Interesting exit polls via ARD: The COVID pandemic is not the dominating issue. Economy, climate, social safety and eduction are ahead of the pandemic.

[President Johnson]

Numbers could change though, as this is just a prognosis. But if it holds, very bad for the CDU. I hope Greens and SPD get to a majority in BaWü. It's very close at this point.

[President Johnson]

Turnout in BW is estimated at 62%, RP at 70%. That's less than in 2016. But would be very high by American standards.

[President Johnson]

FGW exit polls:

BW:

Greens: 31.5
CDU: 23
AfD: 12.5
SPD: 10.5
FDP: 11
Left: 3.5
FW: 3

RLP:

SPD: 33.5
CDU: 25.5
AfD: 10.5
FDP: 6.5
Greens: 9.5
Left: 3
FW: 5.5

SPD is at 12% per ARD. About the same as five years ago, but a hilariously terrible result.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1371145066849447936
https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1371144736707391492

[President Johnson]

Since it's pretty evident the incumbency played a massive role in both states and helped their parties to win again, Greens and SPD would be well advised to find a successor in time. Especially for Kretschmann, who at 73 probably won't run for a fourth term (Dreyer can easily run again in 2026). If I were Kretschmann, I'd resign around 2024 so that my successor can establish a reputation and run as the incumbent Minister President in the 2026 election. Personally, I'd prefer Cem Özdemir as his successor.

[President Johnson]

It's noteworthy that the Greens almost always underperform their polling numbers. They were expected to be in double digits in RP and BW polls saw them between 32% and 35%. Same pattern in the last few federal elections.

[President Johnson]

Baldauff and Eisenmann have de facto given concession speeches now, congratulating Dreyer and Kretschmann. My wife just turned to me and asked to imagine them calling the results rigged and a steal in the fashion of Donald Trump. That's so freakin' unimaginable.

[President Johnson]

SPD and Greens are climbing in their respective states. Malu would actually be a great chancellor candidate as well. She's awesome.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1371167385751797761
https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1371166936969658371

[President Johnson]

How likely is an Ampelkoaliton in Baden-Württemberg? Do you think the Greens would be at all eager to kick the CDU?

(As an anecdote, my grandmother, who lives in Freiburg and is usually a staunch SPD supporter, voted Green.)

I'd say 50/50 at this point. The SPD definitely wants to be back the cabinet table and unlike in 2016, FDP leader Hans-Ulrich Rülke has expressed openness for talks. At this point, it's pretty much up to the Greens. What speaks for a continuation of Greens-CDU is that exit polls show voters preferring this coalition and a two party coalition is always easier to manage than having three governing partners.

[President Johnson]

How likely is an Ampelkoaliton in Baden-Württemberg? Do you think the Greens would be at all eager to kick the CDU?

(As an anecdote, my grandmother, who lives in Freiburg and is usually a staunch SPD supporter, voted Green.)

The FDP candidate Hans-Ulrich Rülke already stated that he's expecting Kretschmann to send him invitations to coalition negotiations. He seems open towards that option. Plus, Eisenmann was a bit hesitant when she was asked about the continuation of the Black-Green coalition.

Wouldn't exclude the possibility of a Green/SPD or Green/FDP coalition yet, tho.

Greens and SPD are currently just one seat away from that. 72 seats are needed in the 143 member body, both are at 71 as of now. Greens and FDP are at 70. However, Kretschmann already said the coalition must be reliable and I'm not sure he wants to govern with exactly the number of seats needed. Coalitions with the CDU and SPD+FDP would have a 60% majority in the legislature.

At the same time, the traffic light coalition in RP has expanded its 51 seat majority to 54 or 55 (out of 101 seats).

[President Johnson]

Exit polls show Winfried Kretschmann with a nearly 80% approval rating/favorability. He's even approved by 89% of SPD and 81% of CDU voters. Even among CDU voters, he'd win head to head with 56% to 35% against Eisenmann. The guy is literally Emperor of Baden-Württemberg at this point. He actually reminds me of Phil Scott when compred to American politicians.

[President Johnson]

Exit polls show Winfried Kretschmann with a nearly 80% approval rating/favorability. He's even approved by 89% of SPD and 81% of CDU voters. Even among CDU voters, he'd win head to head with 56% to 35% against Eisenmann. The guy is literally Emperor of Baden-Württemberg at this point. He actually reminds me of Phil Scott when compred to American politicians.

Wouldn’t a better comparison be an extremely popular Tom Wolf or Roy Cooper ?

I don't think so because BaWü is traditionally a CDU state and the Greens are not doing that well in federal elections. Like Scott or Baker, Kretschmann defies partisan gravitas here and became popular by governing as a moderate, especiallc compared to his party as a whole. And like Baker, he barely won his first election mainly because of an inept opponent.

[President Johnson]

BW Update: Size of the Landtag is now 148 seats, and Greens + SPD would end up winning 75 seats. That's one more than needed for majority.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1371202015121043465

[President Johnson]

BW Update: Size of the Landtag is now 148 seats, and Greens + SPD would end up winning 75 seats. That's one more than needed for majority.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1371202015121043465

Would you agree with me on my opinion that BW has the most complicated (albeit not complex, that would be HH and HB) of all German states?

Absolutely. That needs to be reformed, though the CDU has always blocked a modifaction (requiring a two-thirds majority). If I'm correct, the seats are being allocated by individual results of the candidates in their district. So 20 seats for party X means the 20 best performing candidates are elected, but subdivided into the four governing districts for equal representation. Popular vote winners of each district automatically win the seat though, no matter how weak the plurality is. AfD's candidate won the Mannheim seat in 2016 with 19% of the vote.

[President Johnson]

Could you let me know where Eberdingen-Nussdorf is on this map? I was there over Christmas in 2019 and am curious

In District 13, which is neighboring the 6th, which is my homedistrict. These towns are just a few miles from here. German Wikipedia: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahlkreis_Vaihingen

[President Johnson]

I think it is not stated enough that these results are totally satisfactory for the SPD, which, after all these years, means something.

Their losses in RLP were marginal.

They lost two percent in BaWü, but these losses are nothing in comparison to the downward trend people often like to ascribe to the party. Funnily, despite the losses, they are in a better position than they were in 2016 because they might very well be included in a government this time around.

I seldom agree with Olaf Scholz but I think he was right last night when he stated that these elections have shown that a CDU-government is not inevitable. The center-left bloc has grown in both states; the CDU is the definitive loser.

Agreed, though the Union (unfortunately) still has a 75-80% chance to retain the chancellorship as of today, I guess. That being said, I think they absolutely need to go back into opposition after the Merkel years. It's time for something new, the Union is tired and lacks new ideas or much policy ideas in general. A traffic light coalition might actually set new impulses for digitalization, social safety and a smart environmental policy that's combined with sound economic policy. However, that not just depends on the election results in September, but also the FDP. The Dreyer SPD and Kretschmann Greens are more pragmatic and centrist than at the federal level, where the left wings of both parties have more influence. Bringing that together with the FDP could be tricky, although Scholz, Habeck and Lindner themselves could probably work together just fine.

[President Johnson]

In a not surprising announcement, CDU candidate and outgoing Education Minister Susanne Eisenmann has announced her retirement from politics.

[President Johnson]

In a not surprising announcement, CDU candidate and outgoing Education Minister Susanne Eisenmann has announced her retirement from politics.

What do you think is gonna happen to Thomas Strobl? As CDU state chairman, it's not like he has no responsibility at all for the result and afaik, he didn't manage to win a seat on his own either.

Well, Strobl's gamble of not running as MP challenger has paid off so far. He for sure knew Winfried Kretschmann was not going to lose reelection, leaving the role of sacrafical lamb to Eisenmann, an equally lackluster candidate as he himself would have been. Ultimately I think his fate will depend on what Kretschmann does, who's free to pick his coalition partners at this point. If there is a new Green-CDU government, Strobl is likely to hang on as state chair, Interior Minister and Deputy MP and once again be the CDU's leading figure in that alliance. Just as he was in 2016, when he stepped in the role following Guido Wolf's humiliating defeat (remember that Strobl wanted to challenge Kretschmann back then, but lost a referendum among CDU members to Wolf back in 2015).

However, if the Greens decide to negotiate and form a trafficlight coalition, he'll probably have a hard time to remain state chair for longer than a few more months. And this time around he doesn't have any other job or office. Back in 2016, he was not just CDU leader in the state, but also a member of the Bundestag. A seat which he only resigned after the second Kretschmann cabinet was formed in May 2016. Strobl ran for a Landtag seat in 2021, but lost the race. So in the latter scenario, he's most likely done politically. I don't know whether there is a chance to return to the Bundestag this year, assuming he wants to. I guess it's too late for that since parties are already selecting their candidates for the September election. Given these circumstances, I could see the CDU really offering many concessions to Kretschmann just to hang onto power (with Strobl having a personal interest in a contination of the Green-CDU coalition).