🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

The FDP's entrance into the Landtag in Thuringia has now officialy been certified. 73 votes made the difference.

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article203127374/Thueringen-Wahl-FDP-schafft-Einzug-in-CDU-hofft-auf-Viererbuendnis.html

[President Johnson]

Two and half months after the election Thuringia still hasn't a new government, although CDU state leader Mike Möhring has now made another attempt at selling a Left-CDU cooperation to his own party, this time calling it a Projektregierung ("project government").

There are also talks with the FDP for some projects. The state will get a red-red-green minority government. But I sincerely doubt it will last for the whole five year term. Minority cabinets rarely went well in Germany, even though it's regular in other European countries like Denmark.

[President Johnson]

Only with the parties currently in the legislature:

1.) SPD, 71.1%
2.) CDU, 59.2%
2.) Greens, 59.2%
4.) Left, 53.9%
5.) FDP, 47.4%
6.) AfD, 43.4%


With all parties, SPD is second to Free Voters (75%).

[President Johnson]

What a mess. It's clearly ignorant to the voters, who wanted to keep Ramelow minister-president. He's one of the best members of his party.

I predict there will be a snap election within a matter of months. A CDU-FDP minority government that is far from an own majority won't get anything done since SPD and Greens already ruled cooperation out. If not earlier, as soon as a new annual budget needs to be passesd, the Kemmerich cabinet is finished and new election will take place. Hopefully this strenghtens Ramelow's support and costs the AfD votes.

[President Johnson]

Sad to see Bodo ousted in such a way.

He was one of the better, leftwing Governors ...

Yes, he is one of the best members of his party. But I think it's likely he will return after a snap election. Curious to see new polling after these events.

[President Johnson]

There is new poll from today (Source)

Left: 34% (+3)
AfD: 23% (-0.5)
CDU: 19% (-)
SPD: 6% (-2)
Greens: 6% (+1)
FDP: 7% (+2)


Would be hilarious if the SPD drops below 5%.

[President Johnson]

Just wondering what would happen if say the afd ever won a outright majority in any of the Landtag?

They need to double their support in these eastern states, which isn't very likely. I guess it would cause a huge backlash on the streets.

[President Johnson]

If I was Ramelow, I'd be going for a snap election. Maybe he at first rejected the idea because he thinks it may be a risk to demand a new call to the polls too early, but he could actually win back a working majority for his coalition. Even if he's ultimately successful with forming the minority cabinet, I don't see it lasting for a full five year term. CDU is obviously against a snap election since their numbers are in the tank.

[President Johnson]

Another fresh Thuringia state election poll, this time from Infratest dimap. It essentially confirms the earlier numbers from Forsa (Left up, CDU way down, FDP out).

Left 39%
AfD 24%
CDU 13%
SPD 10%
Greens 5%
FDP 4%

Majority for Left-SPD.

I think they might still bring in the Greens here to have a larger majority and due to the fact a coalition agreement already exists and is approved by all involved parties.

[President Johnson]

The CDU clearly wants to buy time by rejecting Remelow's rational offer to have Lieberknecht as caretaker for 70 days to a new election. They know, they will lose another ten points while Remow is at 40% now. I predict (and hope) the CDU's arrogance fires back.

[President Johnson]

Prognosis at 8 pm:

[President Johnson]

FDP & AfD could both be out ?

LOL.

AfD out would be absolutely glorious.

[President Johnson]

This probably means no realistic coalition without SPD.

No, the Greens already said the want to continue the red-green coalition. It's the most likely outcome.

[President Johnson]

AfD and FDP could still enter. Projections as of 8.47 pm:



_{https://www.tagesschau.de/}

[President Johnson]

The CDU politician in question has been issued a clean bill of health which means the election can go forward tomorrow. Better to act quickly now before any more infections can occur.

Justed wanted to post this on the next page, now I read he's negative on this site rather than the news.

Thankfully he's not infected. In my county, however, all for CDU candidates for the state election next year are under home quarantine because they had contact with a postive patient.

[President Johnson]

I'm a member of a dead party Why can't we have something like En Marche?

[President Johnson]

Meanwhile, there is government crisis in Saxony-Anhalt: The "Kenya coalition" of CDU, SPD and Greens, that was formed after the 2016 election, is sharply divided on approving a small increase of the national public broadcasting fee (all state government must approve such, and all other states have done so far). CDU MPs are very opposed to the increase, most likely because the AfD is. There's going to be a state election next year, and the AfD finished a strong second four years ago. Meanwhile, SPD and Greens support the increase.

After Interior Minister and Chair of the State CDU, Holger Stahlknecht, publically floated to break up the governing coalition during an interview and finish the remaining months of the term with a CDU minority cabinet, Minister-President Rainer Haseloff fired him today. That in itsself was a controversial move, as Stahlknecht is chair of the state party. However, he announced his intention to step down from this role now after being dismissed from the cabinet. But it looks unlikely the CDU MPs won't abandon their opposition to the fee hike.


Thuringia also made news today: The Landtag rescinded immunity for Björn Höcke, the far-right AfD leader at prosecutors requests. There are charges of incitement to racial hatred. Immunity for Minister-President Bodo Ramelow (The Left) was also rescinded after he showed the middle finger to a AfD MP earlier this year after the said MP filed a defamation complaint.

[President Johnson]

Two ministers of the Baden-Württemberg state government from two (!) different parties generated headlines today.
On the one hand: Culture Minister Susanne Eisenmann (CDU) for pandering to the Covidiots by claiming that the "Leopoldina", the German National Academy of Natural Sciences, which provides the federal government with professional advice on Corona issues, "hasn't kept pace with the times", as they counseled the state government to temporarily suspend compulsory school attendance as of next week.
And on the other hand: Environment Minister Franz Untersteller (Greens) for driving 177 km/h (≙ 110 mph) within a 120 km/h (≙ 75 mph) zone. Oh, did I mention that this consummate hypocrite is a member of the motorist-hating Greens? 😒

By the way, the next state elections will take place on March 14, 2021... 😏

Eisenmann is a complete lackluster candidate the CDU nominated for Minister-President, but they don't have anybody else. Strobl probably knows he's doomed against Kretschmann and much rather wants to hang on as chair of the state party and remain Interior Minister and Deputy Minister-President.

[President Johnson]

Eisenmann is a complete lackluster candidate the CDU nominated for Minister-President, but they don't have anybody else. Strobl probably knows he's doomed against Kretschmann and much rather wants to hang on as chair of the state party and remain Interior Minister and Deputy Minister-President.

Oh, Eisenmann is the Spitzenkandidat? I didn't even know about that. I always took it as settled that Merkel loyalist Thomas Strobl would receive the nomination, after he unexpectedly lost the primary against Guido Wolf in 2015.

Yes, she has been nominated months ago. Strobl withdrew after poor polling numbers. However, Eisenmann barely gets into double digits when polled one-on-one with Kretschmann, who's in mid to high 60s.

Some individual polls showed the CDU barely leading, however, I expect the Greens to go back up once Kretschmann actually starts campaigning. At this point, there isn't much public attention on the state election. It will be interesting to see whether Kretschmann serves out his full third term (he turns 73 next year) or whether he retires ahead of time. I could see him resigning a year or two early so that his successor can run as an incumbent then.

[President Johnson]

Looks like agreeing to delay the Thuringa next state election to April this year, which will be further postphoned due to the pandemic, may have screwed Minister-President Bodo Ramelow. He currently is in hot water for belittling Merkel in an online-post and playing a smartphone game during a video conference with her and other state MPs. Even SPD and Greens are going after him now, and his party (The Left) has already lost support in polls conducted before.

Ramelow is known for being unhinged at times; just last year the state parliament rescinded his immunity for showing the middle finger to an AfD politician during a legislative meeting. However, he enjoyed solid approvals for most of his term so far.

[President Johnson]

Looks like agreeing to delay the Thuringa next state election to April this year, which will be further postphoned due to the pandemic, may have screwed Minister-President Bodo Ramelow. He currently is in hot water for belittling Merkel in an online-post and playing a smartphone game during a video conference with her and other state MPs. Even SPD and Greens are going after him now, and his party (The Left) has already lost support in polls conducted before.

Ramelow is known for being unhinged at times; just last year the state parliament rescinded his immunity for showing the middle finger to an AfD politician during a legislative meeting. However, he enjoyed solid approvals for most of his term so far.

Why should The Left's voters care if he disrespects Merkel or flips off a AfD member? Seems like a plus!

Because it hurts his image of being a pragmatic de facto Social Democrat and there's a lot of ticket splitters who'd vote for the CDU on federal level but for the Left in state elections.

This. And right now he's facing backlash from across the spectrum.

[President Johnson]

Because it hurts his image of being a pragmatic de facto Social Democrat and there's a lot of ticket splitters who'd vote for the CDU on federal level but for the Left in state elections.

Ah ok, I completely didn't realize he was viewed as a de-facto Social Democrat. For whatever reason I assumed that The Left could afford--at least in the East--to be a bit more hard-left and less open to criticism on grounds of aesthetics or respectability.

What's interesting about Ramelow is also that he's a devoted Christian.

[President Johnson]

Some polling updates for the March 13 Baden-Württemberg state election: Two seperate polls from February 4 and February 5 found the Greens of Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann leading the CDU 34-27% and 34-28%, respectively. That's outside the margin of error. Kretschmann is absolutely crushing the CDU's MP candidate, Eduction Minister Susanne Eisenmann, in head-to-head polls, winning 65% and 70%, while only 13% and 16% would favor her has head of government.

Meanwhile, the SPD is stuck at 10% and 11% and the FDP at 9%. AfD at 10%, which is five points less than in 2016. No other party would clear the 5% treshold.

The major question is whether the current Green-CDU "grand coalition" will be continued after the election, or whether the Greens can form a government with the SPD again, as they did in Kretschmann's first term from 2011 to 2016. It would be close if these polls hold up, though the FDP recently expressed openess for a "Traffic light coalition" with the Greens and SPD, something they rejected in 2016. Both these options would be preferrable in my opinion and the CDU needs to be back in opposition.

[President Johnson]

So there was a TV debate yesterday between incumbent Winfried Kretschmann and his CDU challenger Susanne Eisenmann, the sitting Minister of Education. Not much new to learn, Covid essentially took the first half hour of the 60 minute discussion, in which Eisenmann pushed for faster openings in the lockdown. Obviously it remained pretty civil with not a whole lot controversies. I don't see how the debate changes anything, Kretschmann with his 70% approval rating remains the favorite for a third term and Eisenmann is sort of a lackluster candidate.

Other parties were not represented since SPD, AfD and FDP have a nonexistent chance to win the state's top job.

[President Johnson]

More polls for RP and BW:







Tagesschau

Looks good for the Malu Dreyer and the SPD to retain power, while Kretschmann is crusing to a third term. It's incredible how he crushes Eisenmann one on one.