🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

The German Press Agency has apparently asked all members of the AfD caucus whether they've voted for Wegner. So far, five of them have answered in the affimative, bringing the number of coalition MPs who have voted for Wegner down to 81, which is still a majority in its own right.

The spin perpetuated by many CDU and SPD representatives this evening that the 86 MPs who had voted for Wegner in the end were supposedly all 86 MPs of the coalition is a bit dishonest though.

Everybody likes treason, nobody likes traitors. Sometimes I think it would be interesting for these ballots to be non-secret.

[President Johnson]

First prognosis for Bremen:

[President Johnson]

Why is there no AFD ?

Got suspended and all their voters went to BIW.

BIW ("Bürger in Wut", "citizens in rage") isn't entirely identical to the AfD though. While some former AfD members switched to BIW in recent years, they're mostly from the early phase of the party and belonged to the "moderate" wing which plays no role anymore. BIW sees themselves between CDU and AfD in the political spectrum and more of a national conservative and economically liberal party.

[President Johnson]

I am going to become The Joker.

Berlin, having already redone its 2021 state election this February, might have to redo its Bundestag election: https://www.t-online.de/region/berlin/id_100190132/berlin-landeswahlleiter-zur-bundestagswahl-wiederholung-worst-case-.html

Among others, the parliamentary groups of the CDU/CSU and AfD , who are striving for a more comprehensive or complete repetition of the election, have lodged an election scrutiny complaint. The Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe still has to decide on this.

"We are preparing for the worst-case scenario: a complete repeat election to the Bundestag in Berlin because we simply do not know how the Federal Constitutional Court will decide," said Bröchler. "If we were only prepared for the smaller number of polling stations and there were a complete repeat election, then we would have enormous organizational problems," said the administration scientist.

Together with his office and the districts, he is preparing to hold the repeat election after only 60 days as soon as the Federal Constitutional Court has made its decision. Then not only the polling stations and ballot boxes and enough ballot papers have to be available, but also, for example, enough poll workers.

INB4 this causes Linke lose 37 seats

I actually doubt this would cause other members lose their mandates. However, Linke might soon lose their status as official Bundestag faction due to the ongoing feud with Russian propagandist MP Sahra Wagenknecht. Rumors are out she and some of her allies are leaving the party and splitting it up.

[President Johnson]

Disgusting. Even if you think the Scholz government isn't great, it's no reason to vote for a far-right party in a local election.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1673024100938252289

[President Johnson]

AfD candidate got 42% of the vote in the first round of Nordhausen's mayoral elections, but now looks like he might lose in the second round due to a strong anti-AfD vote. Majority of the vote has been counted.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1705992436411945327?s=20

The AfD candidate lost the race 55-45% quite handily in the end. Funny how their officials now downplay the loss as a local one after they tried to nationalize it before.

[President Johnson]

I'm kind of late, but here are my last minute predictions:

Bavaria

36.5% CSU
16.0% FW
15.5% Greens
15.5% AfD
  7.0% SPD
  3.5% FDP
  1.5% Linke

CSU-FW will continue.


Hesse

34.5% CDU
17.0% Greens
16.5% AfD
14.5% SPD
  4.0% FDP
  3.5% FW
  2.0% Linke

CDU-Greens will continue.

[President Johnson]

Here we go:





My predictions were pretty good. Turnout slightly down.

[President Johnson]

this is so stupid

I'm certainly biased here, but more generally, I think both CDU in Hesse and especially the CSU are in power way too long. It's not healthy when one party rules so long, even if democratically elected. A change for at least one term would be a good thing, even for the CSU.

[President Johnson]

Projection as of now:










I actually wonder whether Nancy Faeser can remain Interior Minister at this point. The result is pretty much atrocious, especially for such a high-profile cabinet members. Reminds me of Norbert Röttgen in 2012. He was fired as Environment Minister by Merkel after losing the NRW state election in a landslide.

[President Johnson]

AfD might come in second place in both states. 

That's almost a given at this point. Sadly.

[President Johnson]

You might want to add yesterday's big winner Boris Rhein. Proven vote-getter and also looks like a chancellor.

As for 2025, I would much keep a much closer eye on Daniel Günther and Hendrick Wüst. Günther in particular in my view would be a formidable candidate for chancellor. He's just 50, won in a landslide last year and entered a coalition with the Greens despite the fact the FDP was also possible. The question would only be whether he can appeal to enough centrist swing voters without losing too much ground on the right flank. Wüst might be better for that, but he also governs with the Greens and a sound communicator. Not sure though whether Merz would forgo a candidacy, since party leader usually are seen as natural candidates (often referred to as "erstes Zugriffsrecht"). He repeatedly said that Merkel stepping down as party leader in 2018, three years before leaving the chancellorship, was a huge mistake and that a CDU chancellor should always be party leader as well.

Meanwhile, Söder remains an open question. His performance wasn't poor enough just to write him off, though cracking 40% would have put him in a better position for another pitch.

[President Johnson]

Are CSU/FW in Bavaria and CDU/Greens in Hesse still the most likely coalitions, or is it possible we see a change in one of these states?

Yes, CDU/FW is pretty much a given.

In Hesse, CDU/Greens is still most likely to be continued, though CDU/SPD is also an option. Both Greens and SPD expressed readiness for serious talks. However, Rhein and the CDU can chose between the two who don't have a lot of leverage in this situation.

[President Johnson]

LINKE Bundestag member Thomas Lutze has officially left the LINKE and its parliamentary group and joined the SPD. I would think, it has much to do with the intra-party infighting in the Saarland state party. Connected to this there have been several allegations of fraud etc. over the years. Btw, the SPD of the Saarland did not want him, so he joined the Berlin state party.

Hopefully Dietmar Bartsch is next. He's often a voice for reason and would fit into the SPD's left wing. The government has now 417 seats and SPD 207, ten more than the Union.

[President Johnson]

LINKE Bundestag member Thomas Lutze has officially left the LINKE and its parliamentary group and joined the SPD. I would think, it has much to do with the intra-party infighting in the Saarland state party. Connected to this there have been several allegations of fraud etc. over the years. Btw, the SPD of the Saarland did not want him, so he joined the Berlin state party.

Hopefully Dietmar Bartsch is next. He's often a voice for reason and would fit into the SPD's left wing. The government has now 417 seats and SPD 207, ten more than the Union.

What’s the expected ideology of a post-Wagenknecht Linke? Are the moderates potentially leaving because they regard it as too extreme or because it’s a sinking ship?

Democratic socialism, I guess, though I think the party will run out of existence. I'm skeptical though a Wagenknecht party would actually be able to emerge as a serious force. They lack prominent faces besides her and putting together a functioning party apparatus isn't that easy.

[President Johnson]

Regarding government formation in Hessen:

The CDU has said they will talk only with the Greens, SPD, and FDP to form a government.

Formal talks will likely start only next week, but this past Tuesday the CDU did have a preliminary meeting with the Greens and today (Wednesday) the CDU will have a preliminary meeting with the SPD. The FDP did not get a meeting this week, but will likely have one only next week.

Interestingly, the Hessen SPD will retain Nancy Faeser as lead negotiator for the coalition talks. That is rather awkward, because while she is indeed the state SPD chairwoman, she was simultaneously an election loser, and also will be retained as Minister of the Interior in Berlin. Faeser's claim that she would only go to Hessen if she won was not received well amongst the electorate, so why have her be the negotiator if she's definitely not staying on...? Maybe it's some kind of face-saving move if the CDU chooses to coalition with the SPD ("I lost the election but at least I got us into power!"). But that would also make it more embarrassing if she failed in that too. Oh well.

Either way, it seems like there really isn't any rush to get a new coalition in place ASAP. If I am reading this correctly, the new state parliament will only be seated on January 18th of next year. That's a very long time for a state parliament; is that normal?

German states are just starting to adopt American traditions, having two/three months long lame duck sessions

Kidding aside, I already wondered about that in 2013/14 and 2018/19 as well. Now I was curious and actually looked it up in the state constitution. It says elections are held each five years and the each election must be held before the term of the current parliament expires. There is a specification though, providing a 18-day time span between the election and the opening session of the new parliament or after the regular five year term expires. Since the previous terms expired in January as well, the election on Sunday was just held three months before the new term is about to begin, which is in full accordance with the state constitution. It works differently in other states and at the federal level (the Basic Law requires a newly elected Bundestag to meet within thirty days after the election).

Here are the relevant provisions (in German, the bolded parts are important):

Art. 79
Der Landtag wird auf fünf Jahre gewählt (Wahlperiode). Die Neuwahl muss vor Ablauf der Wahlperiode
stattfinden.


Art. 80
Der Landtag kann sich durch einen Beschluss, für den mehr als die Hälfte der gesetzlichen Zahl seiner
Mitglieder gestimmt hat, selbst auflösen.


Art. 81
Nach Auflösung des Landtags muss die Neuwahl binnen sechzig Tagen stattfinden.


Art. 82
Die Wahlperiode des neuen Landtags beginnt, falls der alte Landtag aufgelöst worden ist, mit dem Tage der
Neuwahl, im Übrigen mit dem Ablaufe der Wahlperiode des alten Landtags.


Art. 83
(1) Der Landtag versammelt sich in der Regel am Sitze der Landesregierung.
(2) 1Der Landtag tritt kraft eigenen Rechts am 18. Tage nach der Wahl zusammen. 2Falls an diesem Tage die
Wahlperiode des alten Landtags noch nicht abgelaufen ist, versammelt sich der neue Landtag am Tage nach
dem Ablauf dieser Wahlperiode.
(3) Fällt einer der vorgenannten Tage auf einen Sonn- oder Feiertag, so tritt der Landtag erst am darauf
folgenden zweiten Werktag zusammen.
(4) Der Landtag bestimmt über Vertagungen, den Schluss der Tagung (Sitzungsperiode) und den Tag des
Wiederzusammentritts.
(5) 1Der Präsident des Landtags kann den Landtag jederzeit einberufen. 2Er muss es tun, wenn die
Landesregierung oder mindestens ein Fünftel der gesetzlichen Zahl der Mitglieder des Landtags es verlangt.

https://starweb.hessen.de/cache/hessen/Hessische_Verfassung2018.pdf

[President Johnson]

...aaaaaand it's the SPD. Thus marks the end of the first CDU-Green state government in Germany after 10 years.

Apparently migration was the biggest motivation, not only at the state level, but also potential Bundesrat votes and policy for the federal government. Rhein is the chair of the State Minister's Conference and has approached Scholz with tougher rules around asylum and refugees, and does not want the Greens to potentially undermine him.

Agriculture policy was also a major source of contention, since farmers have been protesting in Hessen. The CDU said that the SPD has accomodated them on all areas during the exploratory talks.

I wonder whether Nancy Faeser then gives up the leadership of Hesse SPD. Something she should have done shortly after moving to Berlin upon her surprise appointment by Scholz. She already ruled out to go back to Wiesbaden and join the state cabinet.

First reactions from the Greens are pretty negative. Especially national co-chair Omid Nouripur seems really p*ssed.

[President Johnson]

Federal Constitutional Court rules that Berlin must repeat the 2021 federal elections in 455 precincts no later than February 11th, 2024.


F*****g embarrassing

Indeed embarrassing.

At least the Ampel's majority isn't in danger at all. The bigger question is what happens to Linke when they lose a constituency. Their list only won mandates because they won three districts directly, which is exactly the number needed to bypass the 5% threshold.

[President Johnson]

Moved from the federal thread:

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/online-umfrage-wahl-hammer-in-sachsen-86596620.bild.html

Theoretical AfD-Linke majority in the latest poll in Saxony.

What's the likelihood of an AfD-Linke government? Has Linke not ruled out working with them?

Yes, every party ruled out to form a government with AfD or even rely on their support. A "negative majority" of AfD and Linke would still be complicated though, especially since the CDU passed a resolution into their books a few years ago to rule out any coalition with AfD and Die Linke.

In Thuringa, such a situation already exists since the 2019 election. Die Linke later formed a Red-Red-Green minority cabinet with SPD and Greens (which have no tradition in Germany and are the exception). Initially, a snap election was planned in 2020 that according to polls at the time would have resulted into a majority government of Linke, SPD and Greens (like in the 2014-19 term), but then the pandemic hit. Later on, the CDU walked back from their initial promise to allow a snap election after they started tanking in the polls and their MPs were endangered to lose their seats (Landtag can only be dissolved with a 3/5 majority, ergo the CDU's support was needed). Earlier in the term, a "stability pact" was agreed upon between the Ramelow government and the CDU to pass budgets and other important things, but the agreement expired last year and wasn't renewed. Occiassionally, FDP provides enough votes for laws to be passed and now the next election is scheduled for the next regular date in the fall of 2024.

[President Johnson]

I also took the test with regard to Wagenknecht Party. Hardly a surprise these results:

Overall: 42%
Criticism of the Establishment: 35%
Economic policy: 47%
Social policy: 68%
Liberty: 30%
Climate and energy: 35%
Immigration: 77%
Foreign policy: 10%


@Clarko: Could you scale the image? That would make the page more readable.