🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

3rd projection

However, if Giffey shows some decorum, she ought to accept the will of the electorate.

Giffey should resign from her leader role and certainly not claim any government mandate in my opinion. A CDU-SPD government with new personell from our side would be the outcome that honors the people's will.

[President Johnson]

This is worse than expected for the SPD, no?

Not really, the polls saw it coming. Most just slightly underestimated CDU support. According to exit polls, the party was also successful in winning lots of protest votes. Several of them are former SPD and FDP supporters.

[President Johnson]

Updated projection:

[President Johnson]

kkk a lot of SPD candidates who won in 2016 and 2021 are getting absolutely slaughtered by the CDU in Neukölln 😬😬😬😬😬😬

Suburban SPD-CDU crime voters are real

Somewhere these 51,000 voters that apparently switched need to be, huh?

[President Johnson]

So who's gonna end in 2nd place after all?

SPD and Greens are still tied after numerous updated projections. I guess it's entirely up in the air right now.

[President Johnson]

As much as I support the SPD in general, but there's really no case to make in my opinion to continue R2G, despite maintaining a majority in the legislature. C'mon, man, you can't lead a government with 18.4% of the vote and just 100 something ahead of the Greens. If Greens and CDU can't agree on a coalition, there should be a Black-Red government (it doesn't really deserve the title "grand coalition").

Giffey may not have governed as bad as some want us to believe, but she still screwed up and should resign. And not take any other major role. She should retreat to become a backbencher or go into the private sector.

I don't have any faith in the CDU's ability to govern effectively, but apparently that's what people wanted. So let them get in, and if Wegner does a poor job, fire him in the next election.

[President Johnson]

There's btw one scenario which was ruled out by Giffey today: The Israeli option where she would continue as mayor for half a term before handing the office over to the Greens.

I also heard of that, but this was never tried in any German government as far as I can remember. There was some talk after the 2005 federal election, but never came to fruition.

[President Johnson]

Man Berlin sucks at elections.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1625490766591307778?t=CEv-F8UFP4fQtSwHcR...

It's at least faster than some US states I guess. Still an embarrassment.

[President Johnson]

I just realized that the Berlin election wasn't actually for a full five year term. The next election is still scheduled for 2026 as before. So technically it was indeed just a "repeat election" and not a snap election. The court in its ruling explicitly stated this.

[President Johnson]

According to Tagesschau, some information leaked that SPD will be 53 votes ahead of the Greens in Berlin. Official announcement of the final results is scheduled for Monday.

Honestly, if Giffey attempts to hang on with this, it would be beyond embarrassing.

[President Johnson]

According to Tagesschau, some information leaked that SPD will be 53 votes ahead of the Greens in Berlin. Official announcement of the final results is scheduled for Monday.

Honestly, if Giffey attempts to hang on with this, it would be beyond embarrassing.

Is it correct that Giffey is to be transferred to the Federal Ministry of the Interior?
Do you have insider information regarding that rumor?

Never heard of it, and for sure I hope not. She should either remain a backbencher in Berlin or end her political career.

[President Johnson]

Tagesspiegel reports that the CDU has a preference for a coalition with the SPD.

Not very surprising, on most issues they're closer to the Berlin SPD than Greens. Giffey even preferred a coalition with CDU and FDP in 2021 as far as I know. It was just internal pressure that got her to continue R2G.

[President Johnson]

https://m.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/berlin-giffey-will-spd-koalition-mit-cdu-vorschlagen-18712752.amp.html

Looks like CDU-SPD might happen

While I'm not happy about this, it is clearly what the electorate apparently wanted the most. Just to continue with R2G would have looked like a slap in the face of voters.

I just wonder whether Giffey will seek to become a "senator" (state minister) in the cabinet. It happened just rarely that a former chief executive took another cabinet position. The only one I remember is Hans Ehard, who was (actually twice) Minister-President of Bavaria and then Minister for Justice. However, that was in the 1960s.

[President Johnson]

CDU apparently prefers a coalition with the SPD, which is hardly a surprise. I think that's ultimately going to happen. The big question is what Giffey is going to do as there's no chance the CDU won't demand the mayor's office. Especially when they're ten points ahead.

[President Johnson]

How willing would the CDU be to let the SPD keep the top job?

0% chance.

How important is keeping the top job in Germany anyway?
I'm getting the impression that the answer is "Not much".

It's pretty important, both for the prestige and the executive powers it entails ("Richtlinienkompetenz"). But there's also unwritten rules that will probably never be broken, like the largest party in a governing coalition will always get the position of head of government.

Why does the SPD then foreit the mayorship anyway despite the fact that it had the theoretical option of continuing with Red-Green-Red? The realities of political sustainibility or rather the lack of it. Look at the post-election polls what Berliners say which coalition they'd prefer and where Red-Green-Red stood there after the election. Look at the inernal discord among the Berlin SPD's rank and file regarding the continuation of Red-Green-Red.

Interestingly though the Mayor of Berlin doesn't have a full authority to issue policy guidelines (Richtlinienkompetenz). According to the constitution of Berlin, these guidelines need approval by the legislature. Bremen is the only other (city) state with a similar provision.

It's also an open debate among political scientists how much the Richtlinienkompetenz is actually worth, both at the state and federal level. Some argue that it's pointless because a chief executive has just limited options to enforce his/her guidelines without either passing a law anyway or outright fire a cabinet member. You can hardly do the latter when a cabinet member of a coalition party is involved because any government coalition would consequently break up.

[President Johnson]

Yes but when a state government is a coalition (which it almost always is) doesnt that mean that the state delegation to the Bundesrat is mixed - in other words if there was a CDU-SPD coalition in Berlin and Berlin had 5 Bundesrat members - it would send 3 CDU and 2 SPD members or something like that.

State delegations to the Bundesrat must vote as one as they represent the state government, not individual parties.

Correct.

Somewhat off-topic, but I always considered the Bundesrat some sort of constitutional error. It's in dire need of some reform.

[President Johnson]

Somewhat off-topic, but I always considered the Bundesrat some sort of constitutional error. It's in dire need of some reform.

Joschka Fischer proposed abolishing the Bundesrat in 2003 at a time when the Merkel CDU obstructed any agenda of the red-green government by misusing the power of that constitutional organ.

Wolfgang Schäuble made a similar statement in 2009, when SPD and Greens were blocking some stuff, lmao.

[President Johnson]

I think there's a good chance a coalition contract with the CDU might be defeated by a membership vote

The district chairs of Mitte, Marzahn-Hellersdorf, Steglitz-Zehlendorf, Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf, Tempelhof-Schöneberg and Neukölln, plus three of the sitting Bundestag representatives have already expressed skeptical to decidedly negative reactions to the GroKo.  

So rejection isn't common just among the "usual suspects". Has a government coalition proposal ever been defeated by a membership vote in Germany?

Not that I remember of. These membership votes are relatively new, though, was that ever done before the famous SPD vote after the 2013 federal election?

I think the CDU will just give SPD enough policy wins that a small majority votes in favor at the end. CDU overall is much more interested in power rather than actual issues. So they have no issue with selling out big time if that is what is necessary to gain power. Also, is there even going to be a membership vote? Giffey could just to ram the coalition agreement through a state party convention rather than holding a membership referendum?

[President Johnson]

Why does Bremen have 4 year cycles instead of 5 like every other state. Come to think of it, why does most state governments get 5 year terms when the federal government has 4.

It's a relic of the past. Most states switched from four year to five year terms during the 1990s. Bremen and Hamburg were the last, though latter for the first time adopted five year terms now (last election was in early 2020, next will be early 2025).

It's basically the equivalent of Vermont and New Hampshire still having two year gubernatorial terms, which was often the norm in the US a century ago. Or Virginia still having a one-term limit which was the case in several Southern states before.

[President Johnson]

Frankfurt am Main has elected a new mayor: SPD candidate Mike Josef defeats CDU challenger Uwe Becker in a close 51.7% to 48.3% runoff election. In the first round, Becker came in first with 34% of the vote over Josef at 24%. The Greens narrowly missed the runoff and came in third at 22%. Apparently most of their voters flocked to the SPD candidate.

The election was held a year early after corrupt SPD Mayor Peter Feldmann, tainted by several scandals, was recalled in November with 95% of the vote. Mayors in Hesse are elected for a six-year term.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1640053287746519040

[President Johnson]

The CDU-SPD governing contract has been released: https://www.morgenpost.de/bin/bmo-238061059.pdf

Basically no major changes from the previous reports, no major surprises either. It really is the SPD programme, just painted with the color black.

If even half of this is accomplished, or at least set in motion over the next 3.5 years, it will be good for Berlin and an extraordinary accomplishment in this perpetually gridlocked city.

I think the CDU and SPD will actually try very hard to deliver on their promises, as both of them really don't want the next 3.5 years to be an electoral gift to the Greens. To their luck, they may also find that the districts, now with their much more cooperative alliances, will act as less of an impediment to the Senate's policies as they have been over the past 10 years.

Agreed. I was skeptical any contract would be approved by party members, but I'm relatively certain it's going to pass now. However, successful governing might pay off for CDU and Wegner in the end since most accomplishments tend to be associated with the head of government.

[President Johnson]

A bit closer than expected maybe?

Not really in my opinion. I expected something like 52% to be honest, as internal opposition was pretty strong. From the Youth Wing in particular, but not only. Still kind of hurts to lose the top job after more than two decades and becoming junior partner.

I wouldn't have been surprised for the vote to fail, to be honest here. That would have been interesting.

[President Johnson]

CDU also has approved coalition agreement in Berlin via convention vote. Wegner scheduled to be elected governing mayor by the House of Deputies on April 27.

Giffey is set to become Deputy Mayor (formal title is "mayor") and senator (minister) for economic affairs. CDU meanwhile introduced their cabinet positions, among them music manager Joe Chialo as senator for cultural affairs. He hasn't served in public office before and would be the second black state cabinet member in Germany.

[President Johnson]

I am sceptical of "grand coalitions" generally, but no this one doesn't seem so bad.

Could be worse, yeah, though we have to see. I'd prefer a SPD-led grand coalition obviously. And it seems like that's what Giffey banks on for 2026. Whether it's going to work out or not is a completely different question though.

[President Johnson]

Really, this city is such a joke.

It may not actually be SPDers who are voting against. I would assume a number of CDU deputies are voting against, considering the contract is 98% the SPD platform, and Kai Wegner has brought in many "outsiders" that rubs the old-timers the wrong way.

But we'll never know for sure. Maybe we can ask for the first names

Berlin at this point should just be merged into Brandenburg

I wouldn't rule out some CDU members voting against Wegner, though not that many. Most opposition votes came from the SPD, I'm sure. CDU in the end doesn't care that much about policies. They never have. All they care about his getting in power and keeping that power for themselves and their special interests. Markus Söder is the biggest example of them all. This guy has turned like a pretzel multiple times over last few years on pretty much every issue.