🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

Looks like this is going to be a CDU-Greens government. SPD-Greens won't get a majority now that the FDP is clearly in and there's no real mandate for trafficlight when the two senior parties are almost ten percentage points apart, even if NRW Greens would usually prefer the Social Democrats over CDU. It also seems to me this is the preferred coalition of the electorate. Certainly painful for my party and the chancellor, but that's the way it is.

Lower Saxony is going to look better later this year, with a popular SPD incumbent running for reelection against Bernd "Little Donald" Althusmann.

[President Johnson]

One additional word on FDP: They have lost a fair amount of voters to CDU in these past elections, especially in NRW. I guess that's because a good many of them are disaffected with the party joining a coalition with SPD and Greens at the federal level. Most of them would have preferred Jamaica, I guess. It's still kinda odd because the party negotiated pretty well and has actually gotten a lot more than they deserve given the fact that we're talking about the smallest governing partner here.

Also seems Lindner (and Scholz) isn't as good as Baerbock and Habeck in explaining why he does the opposite of what he campaigned for: Greens advocating for fossil energy imports from Qatar and fracking gas from the US. Meanwhile, Lindner presides over a 200 billion euro budget deficits and needs to barrow an additional 100 billion for the Bundeswehr.

[President Johnson]

SH: Surprisingly, the Greens have decided against another five years of Jamaica - “there is no common foundation for a coalition in which one of the partners is not needed.”

Sounds strange and Günther seems irritated. Now he has no choice but Black-Yellow (or Black-Green but that would be a little ridiculous).

I guess black-yellow may cause some backlash because it's not what people "voted for". Sure, there's a majority, but it seems to me black-green is easily preferred from the electorate.

[President Johnson]

CDU and Greens will go into formal coalition negotiations in Schleswig-Holstein, shunning out the FDP from government.

I guess this is actually what most voters in that state prefer.

[President Johnson]

So the polls were basically spot on. While not a landslide, still a respectable result for the SPD. I don't know why the media tried to make this a horserace after survey after survey showed CDU trailing and Weil with a substantial lead over Althusmann in head-to-head matchups, clearing 50%.

Will be interesting to see whether the FDP now seeks even more to distance themselves from SPD and Greens within the federal government. As of now, however, I don't think they're left with much of an option other than to continue and just be glad the next federal election won't take place for another three years.

[President Johnson]

Haven't been following this - what is seen as the reason the CDU are losing more than the SPD?

I guess Althusmann is not a very strong candidate, and the CDU for some reasons lost major "competence questions", especially on internal safety and the economy.

[President Johnson]

Numbers update; FDP continues to be stuck at 4.9%. A red-green coalition would now have 78 of 142 seats, easily clearing an absolute majority.

[President Johnson]

Would the SPD prefer red-green or a grand coalition?

Red-Green obviously. The already governed between 2013 and 2017.

2017 was a snap election that was triggered less than six months before the regular end of the term after a SPD Green MP switched to the CDU, causing the coalition to lose its one-seat majority.

[President Johnson]

Another interesting point: This will be the first Red-Green coalition in a large, non-city state ("Flächenland") after the last one lost its majority in the 2017 NRW state election. Only Hamburg has a Red-Green coalition since 2015, all other SPD-led states are either grand coalitions, traffic light, R2G or a Kenya coalition.

[President Johnson]

Numbers update; FDP just dropped to 4.8%. Seems relatively safe now that they're not in. Meanwhile, 146 seats are projected. Red-Green reaching a comfortable majority at 81.

[President Johnson]

Very, very, very bad news for PUTP and MAE, but good new for me, Baden-Württemberg and Germany: 😈

Germany's most popular Green politician, Boris Palmer, has won the mayoral election of the university city of Tübingen in the first rounds, despite the smear campaign by the Antifa and the left-green media. He has been mayor of Tübingen since 2007, and is one of the most potential hopefuls for Governor Kretschmann's succession.

I somehow still like him for most of the other stuff, especially for being a practical administrator. However, he will never be Minister-President, lmao.

I think Cem Özedmir has a good chance should Kretschmann, who's long post his prime and just became an old fool lately, step down before the end of his term. Özedmir would at least be my preferred candidate here.

[President Johnson]

Frankfurt Mayor Peter Feldman (SPD) has been recalled with 95% (!) of the vote after a long battle with the city council after alleged corruption. Furthermore, he was criticized for multiple occasions of inappropriate behavior during a soccer game as well as inappropriate comments towards female flight attendants. Political parties, including his own, called for his resignation months ago, but Feldmann refused to step down after a vote of no confidence by the city council. His refusal triggered the recall election, in which 30% of all eligible voters were required to vote him out, which just happened. A court trial with regard to corruption is still pending.

https://twitter.com/faznet/status/1589328345803755520

https://twitter.com/hanvoi/status/1589330269450166272

[President Johnson]

RIP Franzi. I don't think the SPD will come out on top in a snap election, although CDU, Greens and SPD were virtually tied in the latest INSA poll (21%, 20% and 20%, respectively).

The incompetence is just staggering here, though. Truly an embarrassment for the capital of the Europe's largest economy. Germans should be more cautious by laughing at America right now when it takes days to count the votes. At least the US doesn't have to repeat entire state elections.

[President Johnson]

New Berlin poll... not sure whether CDU or Greens come out on top, but I think the SPD and Giffay are going to lose and come in third. RIP Franzi.

https://twitter.com/Techaktien1/status/1602079850143141888

[President Johnson]

New Berlin poll... not sure whether CDU or Greens come out on top, but I think the SPD and Giffay are going to lose and come in third. RIP Franzi.

The polling number for the FDP could have a very dramatic effect on their already jeopardized re-entry into the Berlin House of Representatives.
Can you conjecture why?

Because a lot of FDP voters/leaners are uneasy with the traffic light coalition. SPD and Greens are considered left of center parties and a decent junk of the FDP base feels uncomfortable with that. However, I'd argue that's more a public perception than reality. The FDP got a lot of their policies written down in the coalition agreement and actually has more influence on the government that it should have based on the election result. I'm fairly sure the Greens would have gotten more in a Jamaica coalition and not FDP, because the Greens would be the ones to leave their "traditional camp".

The FDP generally seems to be more appealing out of government rather than in. The 2009-13 second Merkel cabinet was also a horrible period for the party.

[President Johnson]

INSA for Bild Magazine poll:

SPD: 21%
CDU: 21%
Grüne: 20%
Linke: 12%
AfD: 10%
FDP: 6%

RRG still a comfortable 53%. Many polls show the CDU in the lead with the SPD and Greens exchanging second and third place. Seems like it will be similar to 2021, but even more of a nail-biter. But even still, RRG is almost certainly going to happen again.

I think a continuation of RRG is the most likely outcome, the question will only be who's in the driver's seat. And somehow I'd rather be the Greens at this point. I wonder whether Giffey will take a cabinet position or just retreat to a backbencher in the Berlin legislature.

[President Johnson]

I think Faeser jumping into the Hesse election is a mistake. However, Scholz should actually have forced her to decide between the campaign and government post. Can't have it both ways like CDU's Norbert Röttgen in the 2012 NRW state election. If she wants to run, someone else should assume the role of Interior Minister.

With that being said, I think that CDU will win again due to incumbency. Boris Rhein may be an unelected Minister-President, but he seems a rational calm guy who's doing is job without much drama. So if she loses, then she wants to remain in Berlin? It would be bad optics. Just keep in mind that after losing, Merkel actually dismissed Röttgen as Environment Minister the next day. However, I doubt Scholz would do so.

[President Johnson]

RIP Franzi.

I guess the CDU will win this because their candidate is unknown and a the city state is just poorly managed and has been for a while. Maybe the SPD off power for a term is good for them here, although I sincerely doubt the CDU will get much done.

Perhaps Berlin should be governed by cabinet of technocrats for while who don't have ambitions and just want to solve problems with different support in the legislature.

[President Johnson]

Seems like the polls here herding, CDU most likely to come out on top. The question is by how much and whether R2G can justify to continue their coalition.

There was a similar situation in Bremen after the 2019 election, though the CDU just won a plurality by one point.

[President Johnson]

First projection:

[President Johnson]

So Giffey should be done and not remain in office, although R2G has a majority still. And I'm saying this as SPD member.

[President Johnson]

Updated projection:

[President Johnson]

Si what sort of government gets formed? Do we get some sort of CDU led coalition with either SPD or Greens or do we get an SPD-Green-Linke government?

Unclear at this point, CDU will talk to SPD and Greens. Obviously the former would be easier to match than the latter. As for the SPD, the question could also be whether we land ahead of the Greens or not. If the Greens come in second, then R2G could continue with Bettina Jarasch assuming the mayorship. If the SPD remains ahead of the Greens, it might be easier to continue, although a three-party coalition is more difficult to handle. In the end, it might also come down as to what kind of concessions the CDU is willing to make to either the SPD or Greens.

I personally think the CDU should be leading the government because a nine point lead a major losses for all three governing parties is a clear demand by the electorate for a change. Also, a coalition government with just two partners tends to work more smoothly.

[President Johnson]

Greens are now ahead of SPD:

[President Johnson]

Greens are leading the SPD for 2nd place in both ARD and ZDF now... ironically this makes a CDU/SPD coalition much more likely, I guess.

I wonder whether Giffey would take a government role in such a coalition? It's pretty though to transit from the top job to a second-in-command role, although the Berlin mayor's formal constitutional authority is weaker than most Minister-Presidents of the (Flächen)Länder.