🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

Berlin will get a continuation of R2G in all likelihood as Franziska Giffey has announced she'll continue having coalition talks with Linke and Greens.

Meanwhile, the now resigned Head of Board of Elections of Berlin will participate in a complaint against results in 2 districts, which were so close that the severe problems in the whole election process in some precincts (lacking ballots, long waiting times, wrong ballots) might have flipped those seats, being relevant for seat distribution. If the lawsuit is successful, those 2 districts will have special elections.

Meh, that's certainly a result of pressure from the base. I was hoping for a trafficlight coalition here as well. Giffey prefered that as well, I believe. But at least she'll be governing mayor either way. She's definitely one of the best SPD politicians despite the plagarism issue.

[President Johnson]

After being sworn in as member of the Bundestag today, Armin Laschet has officially resigned as Minister-President of NRW since the state constitution doesn't permit him to serve in both roles at the same time. His deputy Joachim Stamp (FDP) has taken over as acting head of government.

Traffic Minister Hendrick Wüst (CDU) is scheduled to take over the role tomorrow. Something to watch here: The CDU-FDP government only as a one seat majority in the Landtag (100 of 199 seats). So there's absolutely no margin of error. And if successfully elected, Wüst immediately has to run for reelection since the next state election will take place in May.

Another fun fact: Outgoing Governing Mayor of Berlin Michael Müller (SPD) was also sworn in as Bundestag member today, but can remain in his role until a new government is formed (expected for December). Unlike the case in NRW, the Berlin state constitution has no such provision that prevents a governing mayor from being in the Bundestag. However, the outgoing Berlin state cabinet is just a caretaker government at this point.

[President Johnson]

Somehow I thought this might end up as a Heide Simonis 2005 situation, where at least one member of the coalition refuses to vote for the Minister-President in multiple secret ballots. Only a snap election could have resolved the issue then and the SPD currently has momentum in state polling.

[President Johnson]

It's early and many recent state elections have shown a dramatic shift towards the incumbent, but a new Schleswig-Holstein poll shows potential trouble for Daniel Günther (CDU), who wants to be reelected in spring next year.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1452987903785713671

[President Johnson]

Government formation in Berlin is finished. Franziska Giffey has been elected Governing Mayor by the legislature, making her the first woman to hold the position. Her SPD-Greens-Left cabinet is actually majority female.

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1473290135496130560

[President Johnson]

Awesome Saarland poll! I just hope that keeps up for the final stage of the campaign. Usually there have been pretty hard swings towards the incumbent Minister-President in the closing weeks and days in all recent state elections, regardless of the senior governing party. I wonder why Hans seems to struggle that much, it's not that he has been a very controversial chief executive at all and seems more of the rational pragmatist. Maybe voters just want a change after the CDU has held the Staatskanzlei for that long?

If the SPD indeed ends up victorious, it would definitely boost Scholz' standing and may create some momentum for the NRW and Schleswig-Holstein elections later on, where CDU incumbents catched up to the SPD's polling lead lately. The opposite "domino effect" basically happened in 2017, which also helped to derail the Schulz train.

Anyway, my preferred coalition would obviously be trafficlight.

[President Johnson]

If the SPD indeed ends up victorious, it would definitely boost Scholz' standing and may create some momentum for the NRW and Schleswig-Holstein elections later on, where CDU incumbents catched up to the SPD's polling lead lately. The opposite "domino effect" basically happened in 2017, which also helped to derail the Schulz train.

On this point, I have noticed that the Union has retaken the lead in national polling to decent degree, and Scholz's honeymoon is over and his approvals are now underwater. Is that just the fight with King Soder taking it's toll, the confusion over Germanies Ukraine policy, or something else?

Scholz was lately criticized for not being visible enough, especially the Ukraine situation and the debate over Covid restrictions, including the proposed vaccine mandate. However, SPD has lately regained ground, though, and Scholz currently recives very positive press coverage for his visit in Moscow. Söder has not regained popularity and still is way behind Scholz. Most popular politicians at the moment are President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (both SPD).

[President Johnson]

New Saarland poll: Unless there's a dramatic last-minute shift, it looks like the SPD will win the Saarland election and oust Minister-President Hans, picking up a governorship. Very possible the grand coalition will be continued in switched roles. I wonder whether Tobias Hans would continue to serve as minister and deputy MP, return as a backbencher or outright quit politics.

Rehlinger also leads Hans in a head-to-head poll 49-33%. Actually an atrocious number for an incumbent.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1504505573928230912

[President Johnson]

I don't think an absolute majority is likely at this point, though a red-green government is within the range of serious possibilities.

Really interesting that the latest trend towards reelecting the incumbent will be broken here. Not a single Minister-President was ousted since 2017, with almost all states having a state election in the meantime. However, I think CDU will defend NRW and Schleswig-Holstein this year, and Stephan Weil (SPD) in Lower Saxony is also on track to win a third term.

[President Johnson]

I think CDU will defend NRW and Schleswig-Holstein this year, and Stephan Weil (SPD) in Lower Saxony is also on track to win a third term.

It will be interesting to see what happens in NRW. Its usually been an SPD stronghold but currently has a CDU/FDP coalition. Looking at the polls there seems to be zero chance of that being repeated after the May 2022 elections. Looks like the math may be there for a SPD/Green government or a grand coalition led by either SPD or CDU

Red-Green is not very likely in NRW. CDU and SPD are neck-in-neck, though I expect a last-minute shift towards the incumbent. Jamaica or Trafficlight are more realtic, I think. Possibly Black-Green.

[President Johnson]

A new poll basically replicating what we know so far.

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1505297136866504705

Hans is pretty much done at this point.

[President Johnson]

New Saarland poll, the SPD is running away with it. Rehlinger also leads Hans in MP preference 57-30%, an atrocious showing for an incumbent.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1507098067664789509

[President Johnson]

Here is my very cautious prediction:

SPD: 39%
CDU: 30.5%
AfD: 6.5%
Grüne: 5%
FDP: barely over 5%
Linke: 4%
bunt.saar: just below 3%

Grand coalition is the safest bet, although there might be some pressure from the federal party to consider a red-green coalition now that the composition of the Bundesrat is suddenly important again. As vice-chair of the federal SPD, this argument may weigh quite a lot on Rehlinger.

At this point, it's even possible the SPD wins an absolute majority. Anyway, if polling is remotely accurate and it's indeed a clear mandate, I could actually see Rehlinger as chancellor material in post-Scholz era during the second half of this decade. If her tenure goes well, she'd definitely be among the frontrunners.

[President Johnson]

Last minute Saarland prediction:

SPD: 37.8%
CDU: 32.4%
AfD: 6.2%
Greens: 5.3%

---

FDP: 4.8%
Linke: 3.8%
bunt.saar: 2.5%

Equal chance for SPD-Green coalition and Grand coalition with SPD as senior partner.

[President Johnson]

First exit poll at poll closing:



SPD currently with an absolute majority:

[President Johnson]

So, with Greens and FDP out, the SPD has a pretty comfortable governing majority, something not accomplished since Olaf Scholz' victory in Hamburg 2011. Actually the biggest SPD win since Scholz was reelected in Hamburg in 2015 with 45% of the vote. And a year ago, the SPD was considered dead. To quote Joe Biden: "We're very much alive!"

Final results:

[President Johnson]

Linke is behind Tierschutz in many towns 🤣

Would SPD do the ungerman thing and govern alone? Or coalition with die grünen

Almost certainly govern alone. Majorities are rare but when they happen, i am unaware of the winner forming a coalition just for the sake of it 🤔

Well, Reiner Haseloff (CDU) did so in Saxony Anhalt last year by forming a coalition with the SPD and FDP, although there was already a one seat CDU/SPD majority. However, since he had issues with the conservative wing of his state party, the FDP's entry took away de facto veto power from a group of potential CDU defectors. I remember one commentator writing that "Haseloff needed the FDP to save himself from the CDU". As it turned out, it was the correct move since he needed a second ballot to get reelected as MP because he had no majority on the first. And it's pretty much certain these defections weren't SPD or FDP members (most likely a group around Holger Stahlknecht, whom Haseloff dismissed as Interior Minister months prior after he floated a coalition with the AfD).

In 2006, Kurt Beck won a narrow SPD majority in Rhineland Palatine and offered the FDP to continue their Social-Liberal coalition, although the FDP wasn't needed anymore. However, they declined the offer and after the 2011 election, a coalition with the Greens was formed (and later trafficlight under Malu Dreyer).

[President Johnson]

NRW state election a week later is going to be a lot more interesting, where the polls continue to be neck-in-neck.

[President Johnson]

Meh, but Günther actually has a relatively good record for a CDU politician and his centrist or even liberal stances helped to gain a lot of votes from folks usually preferring the SPD and some disaffected FDP voters.

Will be interesting to see whether he prefers the Greens or FDP as coalition partner. Günther himself probably leans towards the Greens, though the FDP as smaller partner would give CDU more influence.

[President Johnson]

Interesting news: Daniel Günther wants to continue governing with a Jamaica coalition, although CDU is just one seat away from an own majority and one partner would already be enough for a working majority. A CDU convention has already approved this move. So this will be some sort of hyper-grand coalition, with only SPD and SSW in opposition.

After Saxony Anhalt, this would be the second state governed by a three-party coalition although two would already be enough (though CDU-SPD only have a single seat majority there without the FDP).

[President Johnson]

Last minute NRW prediction (hopefully I'm wrong):

CDU: 31.1%
SPD: 27.5%
Greens: 15.3%
FDP: 9.1%
AfD: 7.4%
---
Left: 2.9%

Incoming government: Black-Green coalition under Minister-President Hendrick Wüst (CDU), or Jamaica if CDU-Greens isn't enough in the end.

[President Johnson]

NRW election:



My prediction wasn't that off, doesn't look good for SPD. This will definitely hurt Scholz.

[President Johnson]

Apparently, turnout is down from 65% to 56% compared to 2017.

[President Johnson]

NRW election:



My prediction wasn't that off, doesn't look good for SPD. This will definitely hurt Scholz.

This could still yield a red-green majority especially if thé FDP drops below 5%

Definitely, though it's still disappointing for Social Democrats.

Even with the FDP, a trafficlight coalition is still possible, though I'm skeptical FDP Leader Stamp is doing it although this could be his only path to staying in government since CDU/Greens don't need him and CDU/FDP lost its majority. I could also see a scenario in which SPD/Greens have a one seat majority and offer the FDP a place at the table to form a larger governing majority. In this case, the FDP might be open for it.

Glorious news, however: The streak of AfD losing votes compared to the last election continues.

And yet another pathetic result for Die Linke.

[President Johnson]

Is there a link to follow the results?

https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2022-05-15-LT-DE-NW/