German Elections & Politics

[President Johnson]

BREAKING: Tagesschau says it's a yes, numbers will be announced soon.

EDIT: 239,604 66.02% in favor, 123,329; 33.98% opposed. Turnout: 363,494 valid votes (78.39%)

http://www.tagesschau.de/

[President Johnson]

BREAKING: Tagesschau says it's a yes, numbers will be announced soon.

EDIT: 239,604 66.02% in favor, 123,329; 33.98% opposed. Turnout: 363,494 valid votes (78.39%)

http://www.tagesschau.de/

Interesting to note that even if there were 100% turnout and all of those who did not vote voted for No, Yes would have still won.

PS: my prediction was 61-39 for Yes (sadly).

I voted no, but the problem is age. When we had a local county meeting of about 100 SPD members two weeks ago to discuss the situation, almost 90% of the seniors over the age of 60 in favor. The same percentage of the youth was against. The current average age in the party is about 58. That tells you everything why this vote is NOT close at all. Sad!

[President Johnson]

March 4, 2018 - The day the SPD died. You lose 11 points in the first GroKo, 5 points in the second one and then decide to get into this alliance for a third time? How goddamn stupid do you have to be in order to do that?

All the seniors were convinced because the coalition agreement raises their benefits and indeed includes some positive things. Nevertheless, that was also the case in the previous grand coalitions with no success. Instead, the political extremes on the right and left get strenthened. Certainly not a strategic vote. RIP SPD.

[President Johnson]

The way I see it is that there are two possibilities from here (with another, more extreme result possibly happening):

1. The SPD collapses as it has in the past as a result of another Grand Coalition.  However, this collapse will probably be much more extensive than before.
     1a. The SPD falls so much that AfD manages to come in second.

2. Andrea Nahles revitalizes the party and allows it to grow and take a lot of support from the Greens and Linke but still fails to form a government.

Pretty much 1.

My current prediction is that Merkel resigns voluntary a year before the next election and AKK takes over. She'll run in 2021 as the incumbent, the SPD collapses to 10% and AKK forms either a coalition with the FDP alone or FDP and Greens, while AfD is the leader of the opposition at 20-25%. CDU/CSU will improve under the new chancellor to about 34-37%. FDP and Greens will end up in the 10-15% range while The Left remains stable at about 8-10%.

[President Johnson]

Disgraceful that my party has taken out the best man in the cabinet. Sigmar Gabriel is an excellent and very talented politican and was doing a great job at the Foreign Ministry. Very smart guy (met him three times). RIP FF.

[President Johnson]

Disgraceful that my party has taken out the best man in the cabinet. Sigmar Gabriel is an excellent and very talented politician and was doing a great job at the Foreign Ministry. Very smart guy (met him three times). RIP FF.

Nahles knived him. If it weren't for her, he probably would have kept the job.

Very likely since they were at odds for a long time. But there are several people in the party leadership who dislike him for his unpredictability.

[President Johnson]

The SPD ministers are apparently:

Foreign: Heiko Maas
Finances: Olaf Scholz
Environment: Svenja Schulze
Justice: Matthias Miersch
Labour: Katharina Barley
Family: Franziska Giffey

Take with a grain of salt though, my source is not 100% certain.

Hubertus Heil is to become Labor Minister.

And Barley Justice.

That makes more sense imo. Heil is vital for Stephan Weil's political support in Lower Saxony which Miersch isn't. And Heil needed Sigmar out of the way because both are from the SPD district of Brunswick.

Still can't understand why Maas became foreign minister though.

Maybe the SPD wants to establish him as the new chancellery candidate.

Maas is unlikely. I think it'll be either Scholz or Nahles, depending who is polling better in the fall of 2020 or who the base votes for.

Fun fact: If Scholz is to become the next chancellor candidate, all SPD nominees since 1994 have a surname starting with "S". Scharping, Schröder, Steinmeier, Steinbrück, Schulz and Scholz. LOL. In addition, there are Kurt Schumacher and Helmut Schmidt.

[President Johnson]

SPD Bayern dropping like a rock with just a few months until the state election (new Infratest poll for the BR):

Horrible numbers for the SPD. We're a dead party in many states, especially Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg and large parts of East Germany. But the CSU numbers are not much better by their standards. I really don't see how they can keep their absolute majority. It's going to be interesting what coalition will came around in the fall. I think either with the FDP and/or Free Voters or the SPD. The Greens not so much.

[President Johnson]

And last but not least: The trustworthiness of certain countries; it's the first time that the Germans consider the USA less reliable than Russia:

Great job, Donald!

[President Johnson]

For the first time in 70 years, the Bavarian Governor (Söder, CSU) will not invite the leader of the CDU to his final campaign event ahead of the Bavarian state election this fall.

Instead of inviting Merkel to campaign with him, Söder will invite Chancellor Sebastian Kurz to campaign with him:

https://derstandard.at/2000082146041/Wahlkampf-in-Bayern-Soeder-will-Kundgebung-mit-Kurz-statt-Merkel

Arent' foreign leaders supposed to be neutral? It's like Merkel campaigning for Theresa May or Donald Trump for the AfD.

[President Johnson]

New polls! https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/crbilderstrecke-495.html

Great job Merkel and Seehofer, 78% disapprove the job performance of the federal government.




Approval of the cabinet:




Approval of leading politicans:




Good that Scholz is surging.

[President Johnson]

New polls! https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/crbilderstrecke-495.html

Great job Merkel and Seehofer, 78% disapprove the job performance of the federal government.




Approval of the cabinet:




Approval of leading politicans:




Good that Scholz is surging.

Do they have approval rating crosstabs by party? I'd be interested to see what CSU voters think of the CDU leadership (and vice versa)

They have. Even 63% of CDU/CSU supporters and 73% of SPD supproters disapprove the government's performance.

[President Johnson]

AfD in a battle for first place in Brandenburg according to Civey.



https://app.civey.com/shares/1984

Holy sh***. The SPD usually gets over 30% in Brandenburg. If these numbers hold to be true, the red-red coalition is toast. More toast than Bruce Rauner is in Illinois.

I have a feeling that one journalist who recently wrote an opinion piece on Tagesschau is right: The time of the SPD as a political factor may just be over, no matter what they do.

[President Johnson]

Another poll, by Infratest Dimap (not INSA), showing AfD at 17% and the Union at an all-time low. I'm sure our German posters in denial will call this one a Lügen-Umfrage too, though.

This here is really bigly:



74% disapprove the job performance of the federal government. Really a great job Merkel and Nahles!

[President Johnson]

The times that CDU and SPD are the leading parties is over. We're going to have a lot more instability on the federal and state level.

I wish there would be a party similar to Macron's En-Marche emerging as leading political force.

[President Johnson]

I wonder what will happen if this is the result of the Saxony election next fall:

AfD: 30%
CDU: 28%
Linke: 20%
Blaue: 6%
Grüne: 4.9%
SPD: 4.8%
FDP: 4.7%

In that - indeed realistic - scenario, the CDU would be forced to form a coalition with the Left.
(If those result come true, the AfD would become the only party represented in each state legislature.)

There would be no coalition agreement and new elections be called. I just don't see it. The Left or AfD may tolerate a CDU minority government that quickly fails as soon as a budget has to be passed, again leading to new elections.

Btw, you even don't need all of them (SPD, Greens, FDP) out of the legislature, it gets complicated if the AfD and the Left have a majority. It almost happend in Magdeburg in 2016.

[President Johnson]

Btw, you even don't need all of them (SPD, Greens, FDP) out of the legislature, it gets complicated if the AfD and the Left have a majority. It almost happend in Magdeburg in 2016.

I've posted this chart before. It shows that none of the common coalitions would work in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, if the Bundestag election results were state election results.

Well, just like in the US, state elections are not federal elections. The Greens would never come close to 30% in my homestate of Baden-Württemberg in federal election. It was the Kretschmann-effect. Same in Lower Saxony, the SPD, in a national election, can't reach the 37% they received in the 2017 state election.

I hope the splitting trend stops at one time and gets reversed; too many parties is just counterproductive for effective government. I don't want to be like the Netherlands or Israel in this regard. A stable four party system (SPD, CDU, FDP and Greens) was much better and more stable. The best would be a two party system with a center-right and a center-left party.

[President Johnson]

New MDR/Infratest dimap polls for the 2019 Sachsen and Thüringen state elections:

It's going to be fun if these polls hold true (what I doubt). A four party coalition isn't working with CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP. However, it begins to look like that the European elections become "establishment" vs. "populists" instead of conservatives vs. social dems.

[President Johnson]

Here are two facts about the AfD:
Hesse and Bavaria will be the only two state until October where the AfD is currently not being represented in their respective parliaments.
The last Bavarian state election had been held one week before the 2013 federal election. For strategic reasons, the AfD didn't want to seek ballot status.
In Hesse, on the other hand, where the last federal election took place on the same day as the federal election, the AfD failed to pass the 5% threshold. Hesse is therefore the only state where the AfD unsuccessfully competed for entering parliament.
From fall 2019 on it is possible that the AfD will be the only party that is represented in every state parliament.

Well, the CDU would be represented in Bavaria, so it's hardly a point. Also, I doubt the SPD will fall under 5%. If so, it would be extremely concerning.

[President Johnson]

I think it is going to continue that the AfD and the Greens are the beneficiaries in this polarized environment, because both ultimately represent the pro or against "open borders/globalism" policy. The CDU is unable to win back those "concerned" voters on the right, of whom most are not Nazis. Simply because Merkel moved to party too far to the center and the current composition of the government (with a center-left party) makes it practically impossible. The CSU and Seehofer screwed it up although they were not wrong on the issues during the recent confrontation.

And the SPD, well... is somehow in between as has lost it's grip in the eyes of the public despite enacting some good policies. Several strategic mistakes from over a decade give the rest. And, sadly, I think this is not the end. The situation for the CDU and SPD is going to deteriorate over the coming years. Forming this new "grand" coalition has been a grave mistake. Political scientist and professor Werner Patzelt explained this three weeks ago: Video (in German). I completely share his points, though I hope he's wrong.

[President Johnson]

It is almost always the case that governments lose support and oppositions win support. Let's say, 90% of the time, that happens?

Yes, in most cases, even when they get reelected. It's quite the opposite to the United States, where reelected presidents and governors usually increase their voter share. Of course, there exceptions in both cases.

[President Johnson]

Söder's downfall continues and his Armageddon is coming closer and closer. A new poll from Infratest Dimap has the CSU at an all time low for the upcoming state election in Bavaria on October 14:

CSU: 35%
Greens: 17%
SPD: 11%
AfD: 11%
Free Voters: 11%
FDP: 5%
The Left: 5%

35% for the CSU would mean a drop of over 12% compared to 2013.

Source

[President Johnson]

Söder's downfall continues and his Armageddon is coming closer and closer. A new poll from Infratest Dimap has the CSU at an all time low for the upcoming state election in Bavaria on October 14:

CSU: 35%
Greens: 17%
SPD: 11%
AfD: 11%
Free Voters: 11%
FDP: 5%
The Left: 5%

35% for the CSU would mean a drop of over 13% compared to 2013.

Source

That's correct, but for the SPD the numbers are even bleaker: They are cut in half compared with the previous election. The 35% for the CSU and the 11% for the SPD are the lowest scores in any Bavaria polling so far.

Yes, the SPD numbers are disastrous. It's cut in half from 2013, which was already pretty weak. I see two main reasons: homemade problems (could write pages on this alone) and the polarization between strong immigration opponents and supporters. The AfD and Greens represent these "extremes", what explains the strong numbers for the Greens in nationalwide polling as well. And at the SPD base, a lot of people are frustrated and are not motivated any longer (including myself).

Another poll from my homestate of Baden-Württemberg that just came out has the SPD at 11% as well (2016 result was 12.7%, in 2011 it was 23%, both the lowest in history at the time). I can't talk for Bavaria, but here in Baden-Württemberg, the state party leaders are doing a terrible job. Just few people know who they are and those who do think they're out of touch with little understanding of immigration problems in addition of being way to the left on economic issues.

Nevertheless, I hope the CSU drops "low enough" that Mr. Söder has to go. Ilse Aigner would make a better MP.

[President Johnson]

Oh boy...

Thank you Horst and Mr. Maaßen. And thank you Andrea Nahles for the great deal to make him an under secretary. This whole story was exactly why people hate politics.

[President Johnson]

The latest federal election was held exactly one year ago ...

The worst federal elections outcome since 1949. By far, then followed by 2009.