Barely Republican States

[roadkill]

Virginia is your classic urban vs. rural voter split.  The vast majority of counties lean strongly in support for Republicans, but they have a much lower population that the left(ish) leaning counties with large urban centers.  A lot of states are like this and more are on their way as urban centers grow at a much greater rate than their rural counterparts.  Having said that, Virginia's urban centers are not that left leaning when compared to those in the North East, just when compared to the rest of Virginia.  They are not so far gone that they are safe for Dems.  They could easily turn for Republicans with the right candidate.  It's just not likely to happen consistently. 

[roadkill]

Like I said, the only claim that Virginia is a "Republican" or "Solid South" state is that there still are very conservative places in the mountains. Even Virginia Beach is steadily moving away from being a "Southern City".

The vast majority of Virginia easily fits within the characterization of being a part of the "Solid South".  You don't have to stay in the mountains.  They are as conservative as their peers in Georgia, Tennessee, or Alabama.  They're just becoming outnumbered by the more liberal populations in the D.C., Richmond, Charlottesville, and large population coastal areas.  If you drive between Charlottesville and Richmond you'll easily notice the cultural split happening in Virgina.  Plus, Southern cities are always more liberal than their rural counterparts.  That's par for the course.

[roadkill]

I think VA is going to take PA's place in the "toss-up" category.  They are very similar as far as the reasons behind the closeness of Presidential elections.  It's not like they have a large population of moderates that can swing from one side to the other depending on the election.  They have a large population of strong conservatives and liberals that are almost equal, with a small population of moderates that can tip the balance either way.  However, it looks like PA's liberal population has grown to the point that it fairly easily outnumbers the conservatives.  They're not really a toss-up anymore.  They're a pretty safe bet for Dems now.