Conservatives have been in denial about Virginia for years

[DesertGator23]

We'll see in 2016 when the Democratic Nominee will be somebody else besides Obama. I do believe the high turnout of the African-American community in Virginia and North Carolina led to Democratic success in 2008, and again in Virginia in 2012. I don't think Hillary would bring the kind of turnout that Obama did, but she'll help swing moderates to vote Dem.

 

[DesertGator23]

We'll see in 2016 when the Democratic Nominee will be somebody else besides Obama. I do believe the high turnout of the African-American community in Virginia and North Carolina led to Democratic success in 2008, and again in Virginia in 2012. I don't think Hillary would bring the kind of turnout that Obama did, but she'll help swing moderates to vote Dem.

In 2012 Obama got 93% of the black vote in Virginia.  If you compare that to the 87% that Kerry got in 2004, the difference is less than the margin Obama won by.  Meaning ... if Obama would have gotten the same percentages in turnout and votes of the black community that Kerry got, he would have still won the state.

Also with Hillary as a candidate, even if the share of the black vote she got dropped by 10%, a slight 3%-4% increase in the women's vote would more than cover the difference.

Obama won Virginia by roughly the same amount he won the national vote. I think the turnout of african-americans would have been around 3-4 percent lower if he wasnt the nominee, which would swing the election. But i agree Hillary would pull the women vote in, which is the majority of the electorate.

But, Hillary is not guaranteed the nomination in 2016. If she does get nominated, shell have alot of dirt she'll have a tough go. Plus, her age and health problems might be a factor for a presidential run. I think the Republicans need to have people like Jindal and Martinez on the ticket in 2016 to have a serious shot at taking back the white house.

[DesertGator23]

Obama won Virginia by roughly the same amount he won the national vote. I think the turnout of african-americans would have been around 3-4 percent lower if he wasnt the nominee, which would swing the election.

The weird thing is that while more african-americans voted in Virginia in 2008 and 2012 than they did in 2004, they made up a slightly smaller percentage of the electorate.  In both 2008 and 2012 they accounted for 20% of the vote, but in 2004 it was 21%.  But putting that to the side.  Even if in 2012 the african-american vote in Virginia was only 18% instead of 20% and Obama got 87% of the vote instead of 93% ... he still would have won.  It would have been like Florida in 2000, but unless something would have changed during the recount, he would have still won.

The one factor I never hear in the whole "Obama won Virginia because the black community came out and voted in large numbers" theory is the reverse side.  That a part of the white community came out and voted in large numbers against Obama.  Therefore reducing the effects of a large african-american turnout.

Even if they were more of the vote in 2004, some of them went to Bush because of his social conservative stances. Thats how he was able to secure Ohio and Florida in his reelection bid by targeting the minority communites with ads purpoting his social conservatives views. A large number of whites did come out and vote against Obama, but they dont make up the percentage of the electorate back in the day.

[DesertGator23]

Non-swing voter,

We see you're a non-swing voter and we see why. The last time I checked Obama won Virginia last year. Whether or not it was because he was the Democratic nominee will never be known but isn't likely. You say it voted Democrat not Obama. The last time I checked Obama was the 2012 Democratic nominee. If I didn't know better I'd say you're in denial about Virginia being a battleground state. It's almost as if you only read liberal leaning articles. You definitely aren't a swing voter.

I agree, most of the voters who voted democratic were obama voters not democratic voters. I think the Democratic Party is in for a rude awakening in 2016, and probably 2014.

[DesertGator23]

Non-swing voter,

We see you're a non-swing voter and we see why. The last time I checked Obama won Virginia last year. Whether or not it was because he was the Democratic nominee will never be known but isn't likely. You say it voted Democrat not Obama. The last time I checked Obama was the 2012 Democratic nominee. If I didn't know better I'd say you're in denial about Virginia being a battleground state. It's almost as if you only read liberal leaning articles. You definitely aren't a swing voter.

I agree, most of the voters who voted democratic were obama voters not democratic voters. I think the Democratic Party is in for a rude awakening in 2016, and probably 2014.

Actually, you are in for a rude awakening.

Im just saying, those who voted for Obama in the last 2 presidential elections didn't vote for the Democratic Party ideals, but for the candidate himself. When the dems are looking for a nominee in 2016. they better find a candidate that can turn out young people and minorities like Obama did, because Biden sure as heck wont. Hillary will be able to definitely swing Women voters towards her, but she does have alot of baggage.

I really dont see how the current trend is toward the dems. We all know Republicans turnout more during midterms then dems, and with the current political winds shifting away from the President, and the economy is still staggering along. The stock market is looking to atleast a 10 to 20 percent dip after the Fed tapers their Bond buying program (QE2), which will leave a sour taste in some voters mouths. Unless the Republicans lose the narrative on the upcoming budget battle (which is very likely),  I think the reps are going to make minor gains in the house, and a seat away from a majority in the senate. The only problem i can see for Republicans is with 3 governors races (PA,FL,MI) and potentially OH, but I think the republicans will only lose 2 of those races at the most.