Washington state megathread

[Alcon]

I was wondering how long it might be before Grays Harbor turns into a Lean R county. I decided to see how much more Democratic it has been than the state using gubernatorial and senatorial elections dating back to statehood and added a polynomial trend line (that's what Excel calls it, at least). As the graph shows us, the direction it's trending can change, but on its current course it could definitely be a Republican county by the 2020s.

I wish I knew more about politics in the coast counties.  Another interesting thing I noticed is that both coastal counties had big partisan swings between the 2008 primary and General.

Grays went from to 64% Democratic to 56%, and if you subtract primary ballots from the GE result, you get only about 50.7% of "new" ballots being Democratic.

Pacific went from 63% Democratic to 55%, making 53% of the new ballot estimate Republican.

I wonder where the Dems are losing support: if the Democrats have just been running candidates that are bad for the area, or if swing voters are genuinely trending GOP there long-term.

It's interesting, because they're not exactly rabidly socially conservative areas, and Obama didn't exactly get destroyed there in the primaries.

[Alcon]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_062612.pdf

According to PPP, the most popular city in Washington is Spokane (56-14) over Seattle (58-26).  I'm not a Spokane hater -- Brown's Addition seems nice and all.  But this is gross and strange.  Also faring well are Vancouver (49-10), which some people might have thought meant Canada's, and Olympia (48-20).  Tacoma (33-40) did not do so well.

Our local companies are pretty popular: Starbucks (46-25) and especially Microsoft (72-14).

Washingtonians prefer PCs over Macs, 44%-22%.

Only 7% of Washingtonians self-identify as hipsters, while 76% do not, and 17% are too old to know what that means.

Republicans hate Seattle, Tacoma, and Macs, and are ambivalent on Olympia.

Democrats like everything, especially Starbucks.

Republicans are more likely to call themselves hipsters -- 11% versus 7% for Democrats, proving that no hipsters call themselves hipsters, and Republicans have problems with irony.

[Alcon]

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/02/re-the-littlest-pundit

haha, isn't that the kid from that fox show you guys did?

yep.

We got a laugh out of that this afternoon.

[Alcon]

No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Although realistically, none of the things are that big enough of  deal to me to care what the results are and I may not even end up voting.

Why No on R-74?

[Alcon]

Mercenary: Oh, cool.  That was actually basically was I was going to argue I appreciate that you've been thinking on it.

I also agree on the 2/3 issue.  I also think it's a fairly arbitrary way of restricting governmental spending.  I think a lot of voters think that this requires the legislature to build consensus on "moderate, sane spending" but in practice it just throws a monkey wrench in the legislation process.  There's definitely plenty of people in the state who are fine with that, but it's nowhere near the percent who keeps voting for Eyman's stuff.

***

The stuff I hear about charter schools is fairly gnarly.  I also understand the concern about lack of local control.  However, I'd like to look more at the vaunted Stanford study that showed that charter schools generally have worse results.  I'm a little suspicious, honestly, because if this study is as damning to the empirical case for charter schools as it's said to be, I don't understand why the reformers are so passionate about this.  Unless it's "if A is flawed, then B" thinking.

I'm glad the other ballot items are pretty straightforward, because I-1240 is pretty complicated either way (some questions about the wording)

[Alcon]

I've seen some of his signs around houses in Lakewood and Spanaway.  They seem to have a decent campaign infrastructure and a fancy web site.  Maybe that's worth 1/3 of a Clint Didier.

[Alcon]

I haven't seen any McKenna signs in Pierce County outside of Steilacoom.  Bizarre, how statewide campaigns work.

[Alcon]

i can only imagine how the strategy conversations on this IE went.

[Alcon]

Does anyone have any strong feelings on State Supreme Court Pos. 9?  I'm not a fan of the liberal standard-bearer in that race, but don't know much about Hilyer or McCloud.

It's my last statewide undecided, since Randy Dorn's opponents seem pretty blah.

[Alcon]

Napoleon, I think the most damning piece of evidence there is that Reichert was the only Republican congressman (who I'm aware of) to lose vote share between 2008 and 2010.

***

The SUSA poll also shows:

Attorney General
Ferguson (D) 37%
Dunn (R) 37%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell (D) 51%
Baumgartner (R) 40%

Still nothing on the SUSA web site.

Ballots will be arriving statewide between yesterday and Monday.

[Alcon]

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/07/20/friday-briefing-obamas-lead-in-washington-narrows-a-bit-polls-on-marijuanal-charters-same-sex-marriage/

Charter schools at 46%
Gay marriage at 50% (indicates probably +5 or so)
Two-thirds majority at 56%

They don't give No numbers.  Super helpful!

[Alcon]

It's like she's trying to lose: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/20/1112130/-An-adult-conversation-about-guns

"It’s time we had an adult conversation about guns in this country. The NRA can go to hell."

sigh

[Alcon]

Full results:

Ref. 74 - Marriage equality
Approve 50%
Reject 43%

Eyman two-thirds
Yes 56%
No 19%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 56%
No 32%

Charter schools
Yes 46%
No 29%

[Alcon]

The somewhat bad news for the Republicans here is that undecideds tend to be Democratic voters.  For instance:

* In the Governor's race, 8% of respondents are undecided Obama voters; only 3% are undecided Romney voters.

* In the AG race, 12% of respondents are undecided Obama voters; only 6% are undecided Romney voters.

Charter schools undecideds split 10%-10% between Obama and Romney voters.

Eyman issue splits undecideds 13%-7% Obama.

Also, apparently Cupcake Royale's pro-R74 cupcakes raised $7,000 this month.  Not bad.

[Alcon]

Fwiw, Eyman's polling numbers almost always deteriorate as the election approaches (although there would have to be a hell of a lot of deterioration, especially since the voters have passed this before.)

[Alcon]

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[Alcon]

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The last line makes no sense, but this is Elway after all.

[Alcon]

It's The Stranger.  I wish I had the maps still, but McCraw's performance on Cap Hill -- which was  amazing, >30% in a few precincts -- was pretty impressive.  So were the performances of the losing, Stranger-endorsed City Council candidates last year.  There were also echoes of the Stranger effect in Fremont and the U-District.

I was just telling other nerds at the bar tonight that it'll be interesting to see how the anti-fluoridation Lt. Governor candidate they endorsed fares on Cap Hill.  That might be the "Stranger floor."

[Alcon]

Isn't she a write-in?  That's going to make it hard.

[Alcon]

You can also request a replacement ballot to any address.  I'm on vacation with like 15 people, and if they didn't vote, I got them sent here.

It's actually kind of ridiculous how easy it is to get a hold of someone else's ballot, which might make it possible to nullify someone else's vote...

[Alcon]

Jay Inslee is doing very well in Snohomish County.

[Alcon]

Spokane is not great for Inslee...and he's trailing in Mason an Cowlitz.  A theme about suburban vs. working-class voters is starting to appear here

[Alcon]

The Gonzalez/Danielson map is really mind-blowing.  I never would have expected such a little-publicized race (that was so easy to vote in) to have such predictable polarization.  75-25 in King and 29-71 in Adams.  Damn.

I think it's pretty clear that the lack of a Voters' Pamphlet hurt Gonzalez significantly.  Compare King, Pierce and Kitsap (Danielson's home county) to other comparable counties.  (Did Snohomish publish a pamphlet? If not, kind of throws that off, but oh well)

Other observations:

* 3rd LD Rep #1 The 3rd LD (Spokane) is very tight.  Young Democrat Marcus Riccelli clearly leads with 27%, flanked by conservative Democrat Bob Apple, Republican Tim Benn and Democrat Jon Snyder, all with about 20%.  Both of the trailing Dems are on Spokane City Council; Apple is a social conservative.

* 5th LD Senate Cheryl Pflug's mutiny seems to have helped -- Democrat Mark Mullet leads 53%-47%.

* 10th LD Senate Rep. Barbara Bailey has a thin lead in her attempt to unseat long-time incumbent Mary Margaret Haugen.

* 10th LD Rep #2 Democratic Tom Riggs narrowly leads Republican Dave Hayes in Bailey's abandoned seat.  I have no idea who either of these people are.  Google says Riggs is a park ranger and Hayes is a sheriff's deputy.

* 11th LD Rep #2 Democrat Steve Bergquist leads with 28%, followed by certifiably insane Republican Sarah Sanoy-Wright at 25%, and Democrat Stephanie Bowman with 23%.  This downscale Seattle/Renton district added to its Republican minority in redistricting.

* 16th LD Rep #1 Incumbent Republican Maureen Walsh, who voted for marriage equality, is trouncing right-wing primary challenger Mary Ruth Edwards, 63%-37%.

* 17th LD Senate Republican incumbent Don Benton is barely beating Democratic Rep. Tim Probst -- only 133 votes' difference.

* 17th LD Rep #1 Monica Stonier, Probst's Democratic hopeful replacement, is in some trouble -- she's got only 47.3% against two Republicans, the easy winner being Julie Olson (40.4%).

* 20th LD Senate Incumbent Dan Swecker's three-way GOP primary is actually endangering him.  He's only up 46%-41% over John E. Braun.

* 25th LD Rep #1 Dawn Morrell, who Hans Zeiger defeated, did very well tonight, earning 49.3% against a field of mostly Republicans (although another Dem got 4.8%.)  The easy winner among the GOP was Shelly Schlumpf, at 28%.

* 27th LD Senate Rep. Jeannie Darneille easily dispatched self-funding, socially conservative trial lawyer Jack Connelly, 59%-41%, in the state's most expensive leg race.

* 27th LD Rep #2 Tacoma City Councilman Jake Fey (D) narrowly leads Tacoma City Councilwoman Lauren Walker (D) 52%-48% in a battle to decide who gets to vote the same on everything.

* 28th LD Rep #2 Democratic incumbent Tami Green, who I will refrain from disparaging, has 52% to Republican Paul Wagemann's 36%.  Green's showing means she's probably lower-priority from the GOP, but the 28th is always a swing district.

* 29th LD Rep #1 Despite rumblings of a possible D-vs-D race, Democrat David Sawyer (41%) dispatched fellow-D Ben Lawver (24%), and will crush Republican Terry Harder (35%) in the General.

* 30th LD Rep #1 Republican Linda Kochmar (27%) advances to face Democrat Roger Flygare (26%) in a crowded open-seat field where the partisan vote split 53%-47% Republican.

* 30th LD Rep #2 Freshman Republican Rep. Katrina Asay had a somewhat weak showing (47%), and will face somewhat weak Democrat Roger Freeman (33%).

* 36th LD Rep #2 Gael Tarlton (30%) and Noel Frame (21%) advance.

* 39th LD Rep #1 Not sure who Democrat Linda Wright is, but she's giving a scare (48%) to incumbent Republican Dan Kristiansen.

* 46th LD Rep #2 Dem Jessyn Farrell (28%) will advance, probably against Dem Sarajane Siegfriedt (22%).

* 47th LD Rep #1 Incumbent Republican Mark Hargrove, who seems dumb, narrowly leads Democrat Bud Sizemore, 52%-48%.

* 48th LD Rep #2 Bellevue open seat.  Ridiculously impressive Democrat Cyrus Habib leads Republican Hank Myers 55%-45%.

[Alcon]

State race thoughts:

Governor
This is a pretty obvious win for Jay Inslee tonight.  First, his win of 4 points will probably expand -- King County tends to have more late-counted ballots, and they tend to be more Democratic, although Inslee's performance there is already impressive.  Second, the primary electorate is widely assumed to be more pro-McKenna (frequent voters, older, conservative) than the General.  Third, minor Republicans did more poorly than many expected, and Democrats actually lead the partisan ballot here by 4 points.  It's not a disaster, but it's a bad result for McKenna.

Lt. Governor
It looks like Brad Owen will, once again, bleed some affluent social liberals who are paying attention -- probably a little more this time.  The main difference here appears to be that the Republicans are viewed as more credible, and Owen seems to be getting a lot less Republican cross-over than he did last time.  That's enough to finish probably just across the 50% line.  Fools' gold, I'm afraid.

Secretary of State
Greg Nickels being competitive for second kind of surprised me -- he did better outside of King County than I expected (i.e., Kastama didn't slaughter him.)  I think the big surprise here is that Kim Wyman, who a lot of insiders here were expecting to be really tough to beat in the General, didn't even hit 40%.

State Auditor
On the other hand, I think the Republican -- James Watkins -- had pretty impressive performance (46%) here.  I'm also mildly surprised that Troy Kelley beat Craig Pridemore (24%-20%).  I hope Mark "Single Digits" Miloscia feels like a dick.

Attorney General
I know anti-gay Stephen Pigeons's 9% will almost all go to Reagan Dunn, but I still think Bob Ferguson's showing was reasonably impressive.

Commissioner of Public Lands
Does anyone else think that Stephen Sharon got 8% of the vote because he looked so damn friendly?  I think most of his vote will go to Goldmark, but I think Goldmark's 52% against Didier was a little under my expectations.  Didier is just ridiculous.

Superintendent of Public Instruction
Ron "Sexual Anarchy" Higgins, seriously?

Insurance Commissioner
Yawn.

[Alcon]

I wonder why John Koster did noticeably worse on the vote to fill the unexpired one-month term than in the primary overall.

Does King seriously have only 46 ballots on-hand to be processed?  Maybe turnout was just so godawful they finished counting everything they had tonight, and the only thing left is tomorrow's mail receipts.

I'm running out of interesting observations until I look at precinct stuff more closely.