It is becoming increasingly clear by now, even in these early days, that Hillary Clinton has a lock on the Democratic Presidential nomination.
I disagree...
Clinton is seen as intelligent, well spoken, experienced, well versed on the issues, has instant name and face recognition, and has celebrity status in her own right.
Agreed, there.
She is polling well. She is well liked and admired by rank and file Democrats.
She is polling well, but not great. Here's a secret: most mainstraem Democrats are well-liked and admired by rank-and-file Democrats. Primary voters, unless they have a litmus test issue, tend to be pumped about anyone they think may be the eventual nominee. Most liked John Kerry well too.
Barack Obama is not catching on. The Democrats are not about to hand over their Presidential nomination to a Senator in his first term. Frankly, the electorate, ultimately, would not hand over the Presidency to a Senator in his first term. Obama is stalled, and has no momentum or traction, and is not likely to gain much.
It's really too early to concern ourselves with momentum all that much. But I disagree that the electorate will refuse to elect Obama on the basis of him being a first-term senator. They elected George W. Bush, a politician who came from a similarly nothing background. One-line attacks rarely work alone. Obama is solid elsewhere, and the Republican will probably face a problem at least of equal force to Obama's lack of experience -- being a Republican in 2008.
The John Edwards campaign is coming apart. His rhetoric about inequality in America is becoming tiresome to the public. He spends hundreds of dollars on personal grooming, lives in an $8,000,000 house, and the public is increasingly wondering how he could possibly relate to the poor. Edwards is faltering and will continue to do so.
As much as the public does love a good soundbite, and as much as I doubt he will get the nod, what exactly does the U.S. expect from their politicians at this point? Bush ain't no rural rancher.
Al Gore will not be running. He would be starting from too far behind, and he realizes that. He does not want to become involved in a losing candidacy.
No major disagreement.
Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Christopher Dodd are minor candidates with limited support, limited money, and will have little impact on the outcome. Their campaigns for the nomination will go newhere.
I think Richardson deserves to be separated from Biden and Dodd, but I fundamentally agree.
Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel are more or less nuisance candidates.
Agreed.
