Oregon Is Turning Republican

[Alcon]

This article just seems to quote statistics that show a long-term GOP trend, and then continue repeating the same "Oregon is trending Republican" lines.

Is there any sort of chart which tracks changes in voter registration against long term partisan control in a state (well short and long term, and partisan not only in party control, but political culture--if this makes sense, a state can be republican with a democratic statehouse and vica versa)?

Ie...is there a relative gain of Republican voters in say...Hawaii or Massachusetts,, West Virginia or a similar sampling of Democrats in Arizona/Wyoming/Idaho/Montana

I know Oregon regularly posts registration information, but I can't find it right now, and I don't remember any major GOP trend.

I jut do not see the reason that Oregon would be trending Republican in any meaningful way.  Certainly, the 2000/2004 results didn't.  Granted, it was more Democratic in 1976, but - uh - gee, so?

[Alcon]

This has more to do with liberal Independents not alligning themselves with the Democrats more than naything else.  As long as Dems have the advantage among Indpendent voters at Election time (which they have, and recent elections show that advanatge is growing) it doesn't really matter.

Exactly.

Democrats are losing the rural working-class voterbase.  Morrow County, which voted 2-to-1 Bush, recently had a Democratic registration advantage.  The new guard that will keep the Dems in power in Oregon is an increasingly liberal independent constituency.  This is also true in Washington.

[Alcon]

That as well. That issue probably played much better in the Northeast than in the Midwest or West.

Indeed; most socially conservative blue collar workers around here have shifted to the GOP already.  Not all union Democrats are socially conservative at all.  A lot of union/service industry workers are actually just plain liberal.  Non-affluent Democrat does not mean populist/communitarian.

[Alcon]

No, this state is Democratic and will stay so until the GOP ceases to be a religious party.

I'd have to agree. The Pacific Northwest has the largest proportion of nonreligious and atheists, which makes it difficult for anyone with strong religious viewpoints to win here easily.

I think that is what he was saying.

[Alcon]

Is Oregon becoming more independent?

Not...especially.  Independents pretty much consist around 20% of the population in every Oregon county (registration-wise).

Independent-minded does not necessarily equate to friendly to third-parties.  Maybe we'd start seeing differences in states if independents could actually establish themselves.

[Alcon]

How did Perot do in Oregon?

You know, there is a large chunk of this site dedicated to listing election results.

In 1996, he received 8.80% (8.40% nationally).  His performance ranged from 6.50% (Multnomah, containing Portland) to 14.40% (Harney).

In 1992, he received 24.21% (18.91% nationally).  His performance ranged from 19.52% (Multnomah) to 32.66% (Grant).  Perot placed second ahead of Clinton in Grant, Harney, Malheur and Wallowa.  He placed second ahead of Bush in Columbia and Lincoln.

Perot did unexceptionally.  Why do you ask, though?

[Alcon]

Oregon is one of the least religious, but its religious population is not exceptionally liberal (unlike the Northeast, the PNW is liberal because it is less religious more than because the religious population is less conservative).  There are a lot of conservative, traditional areas, even if most people in them don't go to church.  I would argue that Washington is probably less influenced by religion, in that our religious population is probably less conservative and less evangelical.  But statistics basically show a three-way tie between NV, OR and WA for "most secular."

I can mostly see Oregon remaining the way it is now, all depending on whether or not the Democrats can do in Clackamas County what they did in Washington County.