Arizona Republic: Clinton up 4 points in AZ (user search)
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  Arizona Republic: Clinton up 4 points in AZ (search mode)
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Author Topic: Arizona Republic: Clinton up 4 points in AZ  (Read 3892 times)
Alcon
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Posts: 30,866
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« on: October 20, 2016, 02:50:37 AM »

There is either a huge typo with this poll or it's complete garbage. There's no way from party reg in Arizona that you could end up with a sample that has 168 Republicans 413 Democrats and 132 Independents. That in no way, shape or form represents the Arizona electorate.

You're also not going to get a self-identified in AZ that is going to be 174 R, 316 D and 218 I. The math just doesn't add up here where it would ever be 2-to-1. I think most of the polls that I have seen are R+, not D+ in the state.

I am not sure what they did on a reweigh (it's not disclosed as far as I can see), but I don't know how you conduct a poll and statistically get numbers, which are that far off.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-republic-morrison-cronkite-news-poll/92390100/
Likely a typo.

Not sure about that.  Their Maricopa County subsample was also super Democratic.  It's completely weird that this poll and the Highground poll are almost in agreement over topline, but the Highground poll had a 42-35 GOP sample.
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