Gravis poll MO (user search)
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Alcon
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Posts: 30,866
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« on: August 26, 2012, 06:10:15 PM »

"On the whole, about 80% of individuals disagree with the statement, with about 61% of likely Romney voters indicating disagreement and 82% of likely Obama voters."

I may be dense here, but how is that mathematically possible in a poll where Romney leads by 17?
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Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,866
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2012, 08:11:38 PM »

"On the whole, about 80% of individuals disagree with the statement, with about 61% of likely Romney voters indicating disagreement and 82% of likely Obama voters."

I may be dense here, but how is that mathematically possible in a poll where Romney leads by 17?

Well, the undediced voters are strongly disagreeing with the statement.
It's the only thing possible.

So, 82% of Obama voters disagree, and 61% of Romney voters...together, that's 89.2% of the electorate, so...

0.82*0.361 = 29.6% of votes are Disagree/Obama
0.61*0.531 = 32.4% of voters are Disagree/Romney
= 62.0% of decided Obama/Romney voters disagree

In other words, to get to "about 80%" (let's call that 75.0%) at least 13.0% of the remaining electorate has to agree.  However, there's only 10.8% worth of electorate leftover between Johnson/Undecided.  So, Johnson/Undecided voters would have to agree with the statement at a rate of 120% for those numbers to be possible. Tongue

Either I'm missing something, or this pollster is a little shoddy, at least this time.
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