Will Obama win white evangelicals in Utah?

[Alcon]

BK's link is spot-on.  This is a ridiculous suggestion.  Maybe if the question were white Protestants

[Alcon]

BK's link is spot-on.  This is a ridiculous suggestion.  Maybe if the question were white Protestants

Consider how skewed that could be by the south though. Do you think Obama won white evangelicals in Seattle? (I believe he did, like in Minneapolis. I mean if you have a serious problem with gays, then you probably aren't going to live in Seattle or Minneapolis for one.) That makes at least Salt Lake City pretty realistic.

Are you an evangelical now, BRTD?

I go to and was baptized in an evangelical church, (that is no doubt voting heavily for Obama), yes.

Am I an evangelical? I suppose that depends on the standard used. I mostly certainly am not by the Barna group standard. I might not be by the Pew standard either, which has white evangelicals quite a bit more conservative than the CNN exit poll standard.

No, I don't think that he probably did win evangelicals in Seattle.  I really doubt that SLC and Park City have a progressive enough evangelical population to make up for the Protestant population in other counties.  I don't have anything to back this up really, but liberal evangelicals are just a small population.

[Alcon]

If Obama got 29% of white evangelicals statewide, why is a majority in Seattle so far-fetched?

I don't think it's far-fetched, but I know Mars Hill Church is a big evangelical power in Seattle.  I guess I'd like a better sense of how many independent Protestant types identify as evangelicals before I hazarded a guess.  But I'm not sure what the point of the debate is -- we both just have vague intuition and non-representative anecdotal evidence.

Since the Census won't ask religion questions we really don't have any way of knowing, but I doubt that there are too many white evangelicals in rural Utah or BYU-land. But here's the big question: How many of them in Utah are ex-Mormons?

I'm not sure; the "Other Christian" population (Utah's biggest non-Mormon population, who don't identify as "Protestant") is nebulous to me.  Are these generi-Christian Park City types, lapsed Mormons who still identify with the Christian faith, progressive Christians of some type, evangelicals, or what?  When we're talking a 10% population (Protestant + "Other Christian") there don't have to be many.  Is the Utah fundie population really that microscopic?  Shrug.

Then again, I guess we've seen exit polls that say the non-Mormon population is heavily Democratic.  I'm not sure what to think, honestly.  The data we have are fairly terrible.