How will Romney do among the following demographics?

[Alcon]

I really don't see much actual voting from the Occupy crowd, I'm kind of shocked that you have their participation so high. Very few actual young people choose to vote as compared with their total numbers.

Apply that to metalheads, etc.

Especially since not all Occupy protesters are young, and they're probably disproportionately political (aside from the homeless and anarchist types), a 10% turnout rate seems crazy low.

I also think a 90% non-voting rate by "Bob Marley fans" seems a little excessive...it's not all like they're pot-smoking losers, and besides, plenty of pot-smoking losers vote in Presidential elections; plenty of everyone do.

What exactly are you expecting youth VAT to be in this scenario (or are you including under-18s in your percentages)?

Teaparty isn't going to break for Mitt.

What odds are you willing to put on that?

[Alcon]

I'm assuming you're not expecting only 10% of voting-age youth to turn out in the General...what estimate are you working with?

[Alcon]

One fourth of the under 30s voting and these particular subgroups of youth voters being half as likely.

That would be the worst youth turnout in history by far, as far as I know, unless you're including teenagers too young to vote.