Washington GOP caucus **results thread**

[Alcon]

AP is reporting that Klickitat is Paul 81, Gingrich 61 (?!), Romney 58, Santorum 53

IIRC some of the caucuses voted early.

Pretty sure they were all held today.  That part of Washington is a weird place so I'm not stunned.

[Alcon]

Big new dump is great for Romney, and good for Santorum.  Strong Romney wins in Thurston, Clark, Benton and Kitsap, with Paul struggling.

Santorum may take 2nd here.

Paul nearly wins San Juan.

[Alcon]

We are at 31% of precincts reporting, and like bgwah says, King County has unusually small precincts with low numbers of Republicans (although, conversely, Pierce has big precincts.)

More at about 6 PM PT, sayeth GOP

[Alcon]

King in, 52% Romney.  Strong Romney win in Pierce, too.

Paul now narrowly leads Santorum; he beat Santorum narrowly in both Pierce and King.

[Alcon]

If you believe the report, it's only a quarter of King.

[Alcon]

I don't see Santorum making a comeback.  It'd even be a really far longshot for Paul.  I'm guessing the networks will be calling it soon.

They should call it now.  This is a small bloodbath.

[Alcon]

I'm not seeing why the remaining counties are clearly Santorum > Paul.  All of them seem fairly ambiguous besides likely Paul counties (Spokane, Stevens.)  While Kitsap was 2-to-1 Santorum over Paul, Paul beat Santorum in the more working-class Pierce County.  Weird distribution of votes all-around...

[Alcon]

"The King County districts that are in: 1st, 31st, 47th and 48th"

That means that the reports are a mix of suburbs and exurbs, with no Seattle.

[Alcon]

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The only areas that have gone solidly Paul are sparsely populated areas. Spokane is a large rural city. Even in Seattle and the environs - also heavy Paul areas. he's not getting any margin vs Santorum. He's up, by what 1 vote in King? He's not going to win vs Santorum unless he beats Santorum in heavily populated areas.  

All the areas outstanding voted Bush in Bush vs Gore, and are fairly heavily populated areas, matching up with Kitsap.

The Paul people's organization in Spokane is fantastic, and early anecdotal reports from the 3rd LD saw him beating the pants out of Romney there; plus I think he was leading a report out of Spokane Valley.  Paul is beating Santorum in all of the urbanized counties but Kitsap: King, Clark, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston.

The counties remaining:

Snohomish - A bit like Pierce and Kitsap, although that obviously doesn't help us much.

Whatcom - Has some Dutch calvinists, but also has a university town.

Skagit - Early report had Santorum leading Paul 202-170.

Chelan - Hard to say, but enough Western Washington transplants that I doubt it will be solid Santorum.

Douglas - Probably good for Santorum, but low-population enough to get a weird result.

Grant - Probably Santorum.

Stevens - Almost certainly Paul.

Spokane - I think Paul, you think Santorum, we'll see.

Overall, hardly looks like a slam-dunk for Santorum, and King County has plenty left to go (including all of Seattle.)

[Alcon]

CNN on Snohomish County: Strong Romney win, good Paul showing

Also, forgot to mention that Island County is out too.  Seems like another place where a Santorum run-away seems unlikely (Kitsap results notwithstanding)

[Alcon]

CNN on Snohomish County: Strong Romney win, good Paul showing

Didn't Paul beat Rick by 100-200 votes or something in Snohmish?  In fact, unless I misheard, Paul won the county, but I suspect I may have.

I'm not watching CNN; I got that from Twitter.  I haven't seen any official results come up yet.

[Alcon]

Jon Ralston ‏ @RalstonFlash  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
Ron Paul tonight will quadruple the number of states he has won. (4 times 0 = 0) #WAcaucus

[Alcon]

Eric Earling, who's a major GOPer in Snohomish County, reports it was a solid Romney win with Paul narrowly beating Santorum.  Makes more sense to me than a Paul win there, but nothing official from the state GOP yet.

[Alcon]

Snohomish: Romney 42%, Paul 25%, Santorum 22%

[Alcon]

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Santorum's beaten Paul in every moderately sized county, on both sides of the mountain. None of the counties outstanding fit the profile of the counties that Paul has beaten Santorum.

No idea what you're talking about.

Paul > Santorum
Asotin
Clark
Ferry
Grays Harbor
Jefferson
Klickitat
Okanogan
Pacific
Pend Oreille
Snohomish
Thurston
Wahkiakum

Paul roughly = Santorum
Clallam
Cowlitz
King (so far)
Lewis
Lincoln
Pierce (so far)
San Juan
Whitman
Yakima

Santorum > Paul
Adams
Benton
Columbia
Franklin
Garfield
Kitsap
Kittitas
Mason
Skagit (unofficial)
Walla Walla

No report
Chelan
Douglas
Island
King (part)
Pierce (part)
Skagit (official)
Spokane
Stevens
Whatcom

[Alcon]

About as I expected, the rest of the Puget Sound was a bit of a Paul-Santorum wash.  Stevens County was about a tie (terrible for Mitt.)  I expect Santorum to beat Paul by enough in Skagit to bring them back to around a tie.  Unless I'm wrong about Spokane County, it's up to remaining King and Pierce (plus possible small contributions from the Wenatchee area) if Santorum wants to overtake Paul.  I'd give it less than 50/50 odds.

[Alcon]

And there we go Whatcom.

What was I saying again?

You were saying that the remaining areas were clearly Santorum>Paul, and that Santorum had beaten Paul in every "moderately sized" county, neither of which were true.

Because of Lynden, no one here is surprised that Santorum beat Paul (and by just 5 points) in Whatcom.  Unless you think Spokane will be heavily Santorum, or Santorum will just slaughter in the Wenatchee area, I'm not sure why you were so certain that Santorum would win the remaining areas by enough to overtake Paul.  You were certainly wrong about Snohomish.

[Alcon]

Santorum overtakes Paul in Pierce County based on new votes, leaving Paul only 12 votes ahead.  Pierce up to 31% reporting.

With unofficial Skagit results, Santorum leads.  No news out of Spokane or the other chunk of King.

I'm hearing Spokane turnout numbers (about 5K) but no results.

[Alcon]

Actually, looks like Spokane was about a three-way tie, no Paulslide, according to Twitter:

Romney 1,521
Santorum 1,511
Paul 1,340
Gingrich 411
Uncommitted 273

Paul may be in trouble for 2nd.

[Alcon]

Skagit and Spokane added in (reports wre legit), plus some more Pierce.  In all cases, Santorum led by Paul by a bit and has taken the lead.  Santorum +226.

All of Chelan and Douglas are outstanding, plus parts of King (75%) and Pierce (57%).

Paul has a few hundred to make up in the remaining King, Pierce and Wenatcheeland totals.

[Alcon]

Douglas County: Santorum 121, Romney 87, Paul 67, Gingrich 66.

Santorum +280.

[Alcon]

Edit, CNN has the reverse, Paul up by 250 with not Skagit, Chelan, Douglas or Spokane.

Paul is up 250 because King reported another 25% and Paul now leads Santorum 27%-18% there.

And, no, you said something about all moderately-sized counties being Santorum>Paul

[Alcon]

Aren't the odds of Paul coming in second close to about 90% now?  Chalin is an empty county no?

Chelan should be about 1.5% of the state vote, although it's hard to know how it will go.  You could make a good case for Romney, Santorum and even Paul.

This is all about Pierce and King.  The last King dump may have been Seattle, by the way, so we may only have the working-class Seattle suburbs left, plus Pierce County.  Hard to say though.

[Alcon]

Yeah, Colorado looks downright bizarre in retrospect.

[Alcon]

That's double Douglas. That's good news for Santorum. Add another 100 votes swing and he only needs to get within 3 of Paul in King, assuming that Peirce doesn't swing some more his way too.

Chelan is a tougher county demographically, though.  Douglas has East Wenatchee and then a sprawling farmland dotted by small towns.  Part of Chelan County (Wenatchee to Cashmere) is similar to Douglas County, although more urbanized, but other parts (Leavenworth, Lake Chelan) have a lot more Western Washington influence.

I think Santorum will probably beat Paul there (hell, he creamed him in Kittitas County, a college county) but I'd guess Romney will win Chelan.

That is, if they don't follow WAGOP tradition and stop counting for no reason.