WA-GAY MARRIAGE: Washington, get your gay horses going (and married)

[Alcon]

As promised, a day earlier than I promised:

New effort to legalize same-sex marriage begins

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2016755891_gaymarriage13m.html

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[Alcon]

Considering the chance this goes to ballot is high, I don't want to force those only interested in gay marriage to listen to us complain about Tim Sheldon

Actually, I do, but they'd probably resent that.

I will probably fold coverage in if this topic doesn't heat up.

[Alcon]

I think it's probably better to make a single thread for gay marriage developments (polling, initiatives, and referendums) in general rather than state specific ones as this issue is everywhere.

I'm not against that, I guess, but it would potentially make election nights really confusing.

[Alcon]

I think it's probably better to make a single thread for gay marriage developments (polling, initiatives, and referendums) in general rather than state specific ones as this issue is everywhere.

I'm not against that, I guess, but it would potentially make election nights really confusing.

How so?

If any states are in the same time zone (or within two, really) it could turn into a mess of unidentified results, confusing questions, and that annoying thing where you can't actually reply because too many posts are being made at the same time.

It's happened before, and it drove me crazy, but there's a chance I'm alone I suppose

[Alcon]

What's Gregoire's position?

Public position:  As of the 2009 domestic partnership bill signing, she "has to see a bill on her desk" and "wants to see a bill on her desk."  She has no publicly endorsed gay marriage.

Private position:  Totally for it

[Alcon]

It would be very close and it would rely on turn out from Thurston, Whatcom, and King counties. Especially Seattle's close suburbs, if Bellevue/Sammamish/Kent/Auburn areas vote for it 55%+, that bodes well for it passing.

Yeah, it would need at least 60%-65% of the vote in King County. R-71 had 67% and it passed by 6%. I presume the rest of the counties would be across the board slightly more against such a vote than R-71. I could easily see only King, Jefferson, San Juan, Thurston, and maybe Whatcom voting for it.

Yep, it really only needs four counties to pass (King, Jefferson, San Juan and Thurston.)  I expect Whatcom too, since it will be more favorable with Obama on the ballot, is my guess.  Kitsap and Island are the real tipping-point counties.  If it's up in Clallam, Snohomish or Skagit, it'll almost certainly pass.  On the other hand, if Thurston comes in early as very competitive, it's probably game over.

[Alcon]

I think Snohomish is more likely to pass it than Kitsap or Island.

The order I would put after the usual suspects of King, Jefferson, San Juan, Thurston, and Whatcom are Snohomish, Island/Kitsap, Skagit, then Clallam.

I'm just basing this all on Referendum 71's results.  Harder to tell in an election year, although you may be right:  The conservative areas of Snohomish (middle-class and exurban) probably had decent turnout already in 2009, while the conservative area of Island (military-heavy Oak Harbor) probably has a lot of Presidential-only voters.

If the measure wins in most of the swing counties outside the Liberal Four, I think it'll be solid.

[Alcon]

Besides, winning a referendum would enable gay-marriage backers to deflate somewhat the charge that this is all a result of liberul-eeleets.

Indeed.  Everyone knows Seattle doesn't win elections, and it's kind of awkward to engage in King County-bashing when your newly elected GOP state reps are in the gay-friendly Eastside of the county.

[Alcon]

The Seattle Times's definition of "bold" seems to be "supported by fewer than 55% of state voters."  Glad to see the early endorsement, though.

[Alcon]

The Seattle Times's definition of "bold" seems to be "supported by fewer than 55% of state voters."

Let's factor in how much that number melts away when people actually vote...

Yeah, I highly doubt 55% of Washingtonians will vote for marriage equality.

I doubt it will get 55% either, I was just ribbing on the Seattle Times for being so bravely aligned with the voters east of Lake Washington.  Nothing says "cutting edge of social progress" like high-income, moderate suburban voters.