Obama poll numbers in Fresno, CA and Louisville, KY (user search)
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  Obama poll numbers in Fresno, CA and Louisville, KY (search mode)
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Author Topic: Obama poll numbers in Fresno, CA and Louisville, KY  (Read 3670 times)
Alcon
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« on: November 27, 2009, 03:26:02 PM »
« edited: November 27, 2009, 03:32:33 PM by Alcon »

The Louisville DMA is much more than Jefferson County:



McCain won the DMA 52-47.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2009, 05:18:51 PM »

So are they including the Hoosier counties as well?  I didn't look at the survey and assumed the Louisville results were a subset of a statewide Kentucky poll.

I don't know, but if their survey area is the "Louisville DMA" (anywhere that picks up Louisville television stations, basically) it would have to include parts of Indiana.

If they're only including the portions of the Louisville DMA falling within Kentucky, the result would have been 50.7%-48.0% McCain instead.

If they're oversampling the "Louisville area" sub-section of their state poll, that area would have voted McCain narrowly, 49.7%-48.9%.  I doubt they're doing this; their "Louisville area" sample does not contain four counties -- Carroll, Henry, Oldham and Trimble -- that the DMA does, and "DMA" is a pretty technical term.

No matter what, their sample area voted McCain, and the 52%-47% area is probably what they polled.
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Alcon
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Posts: 30,866
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« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2009, 01:19:23 AM »
« Edited: November 28, 2009, 01:22:58 AM by Alcon »

Louisville DMA in SurveyUSA is the following:

http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_As_Of_081029.htm (click on Kentucky)

Breckenridge
Bullitt
Grayson
Green
Hardin
Jefferson
Larue
Marion
Meade
Nelson
Shelby
Spencer
Taylor
Washington

Like I said, a "DMA" has a very specific technical meaning.  SUSA's regions don't line up with DMAs; they just line up with common regional terms (...generally.)  If SUSA is polling the "Louisville area" subsample of their KY polls, calling it the "Louisville DMA" would make no sense.  Why would they even think to use the term DMA unless they were actually polling based on media market boundaries?
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