The Battle Continues, But The Numbers Have Been Crunched...

[Whacker77]

...and there is virtually no way to deny Romney the nomination short of upsets in winner-take-all California, New Jersey and *drum roll* Utah. Good luck with that!

If Romney wins Mississippi, the polar opposite of Romney's home state of Massachusetts, it is time for Santorum and Gingrich to endorse Romney. If they continue this circus, they are only helping the cause of Barack Obama and Co...

Congratulations Winfield!

Care to revise and extend these remarks?

It's becoming more and more possible each day Willard will need extra help, a deal unpledged delegates, to push him over the 1144 mark.

Romney is starting to get nervous as well.  He's begun to speak about the ills of a convention because he wants scare everyone into voting for him now.  He knows if he doesn't win it on the first ballot, he'll likely not win the nomination.

[Whacker77]

Why do Romney supporters pretend to not understand that the threshold that needs to be crossed for them to claim victory is not that no other candidate can get a first round majority, but that Romney can get a first round majority?  That is not yet certain.  If Romney arrives in Tampa with a plurality but not a majority, then he probably will not be the nominee.

I completely agree with this.  Newt and Santorum are now in this to block Romney from 1144.  If Romney doesn't get that number on the first ballot, he will not win on future ballots.

[Whacker77]

Folks, Romney won more delegates yesterday than anybody else thanks to big wins in Hawaii and American Samoa. Like Obama (and unlike Hillary) four years ago, Team Romney knows that this is about delegates. And the Romney lead in delegates is insurmountable unless Santorum wins most everywhere from here on out, including New Jersey and Utah. Not just that, Santorum would need to crush, not just beat, Romney in places like Connecticut and Rhode Island (Home of the Winfield).

Folks, this game is over. Santorum is like a team trying to comeback from a 48-24 deficit in the third quarter of a football game. Yeah, you got off to a 3-0 start, but you're down 48-24 now. A comeback is not going to happen...

So Romney can lose all the way to the nomination?  Wow, that's exciting.  He'll be on quite a roll, won't he.

[Whacker77]

The Romney campaign is turning into the gang that can't shoot straight.  Last night, they were giddy they might win Mississippi and suggested the race would effectively end if that happened.  Unfortunately, they lost and then Eric Fernstrom went on CNN and said winning AL and MS weren't important.  He then pointed to Samoa.

I understand the Romney gang is doing their best to spin a bad night, but the delegate math argument is a loser for them.  It gives the impression Mitt doesn't actually need to win any of these competitive states to win the nomination.  Maybe I'm old fashioned, but winning ought to matter.

Romney needs to excite the base and some sort of convoluted discussion about delegates is not going to do it.  Still, that's the best case Romney has right now because he knows the conservative base is opposed to him in the primary.  Newt was not a real candidate, yet he got more than 30% in both states and beat Romney.

Romney does not have this race sealed up at all.  He may still win it, but his path to 1144 grows more difficult with each race.  Romney's own numbers say he must win 47% of the remaining delegates, but he's shown no signs of being able to do that.  If Newt and Santorum hold Romney to 1000 delegates or less, the unpledged delegates probably won't put him over the top.

Romney pushing this delegate math argument because he is aware that if he can't win on the first ballot, he probably won't win at all.  When delegates are allowed to vote for whomever they choose, it's hard to envision Santorum and Newt voters abandoning their men in order to save Romney's flagging chances.  Same for the Pail delegates.  It's far more likely Romney's delegates begin to peel off in attempts to find a consensus choice, possibly someone not even in the race.

I will stand by my prediction of more than a month ago.  The nominee will either be Romney or someone not in the race.