stevekamp
Rookie
Posts: 65
|
 |
« on: April 23, 2014, 10:36:57 PM » |
|
Reeps need 64 EV to move up from 206 to 270.
Easiest -- two states -- is the Right The Left Coast strategy -- CA 55 + WASH 12 (or COLO 9) = 67 or 64 = 273 or 271. Of course, the obama 2012 margin is 22 points in CA and 14 in Washington, about 5 in Colorado.
More likely -- three closest Romney loss states, two of which Obama 2012 % underperformed national -- FLA 29 and Ohio 18. Both are must wins. Then Virginia (13) where Obama overperformed by only 0.07 -- but another must win. Win all three, need one more -- New Hampshire (Obama by 5, contrarian Eastern state) or Penna (Obama by 5, big white whale for GOP) or Colorado (Obama by 5) or Nevada (but the Las Vegas Dem increase probably too much). Reps gave up on N MEX (Bush 2004 state) in 2012; another possible is Iowa (6).
As for Penna., the Obama 2012 margin is 309,840. The Philly margin is 492 T. Obama won the Philly suburbs (net, big margins Delaware and Montgomery, small Bucks, lose Chester), plus Eastern Pena Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northampton, Monroe, Lehigh). Ds have permanently flipped Dauphin (Harrisburg). Obnly downside is Allegheny margin has fellen from 117 T for Dukakis to 90 T for Obama. Still, if the Philly margin statys at 492 or goes up (Rs leave town, plus lots of registered Dem nonvoters), how much of a margin in Philly suburbs and Eastern Penna will Rs need? The "T" R turnout has maxed out...
Final strategy: Scranton-St. Paul: Penna (20), Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Wisconsin (10) or Minn (10) = 64. No margin for error. Minnesota last voted for a nonincumbent R in 1952.
|
