2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections (user search)
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  2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections  (Read 66567 times)
International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
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Posts: 651


« on: July 19, 2017, 10:43:11 PM »

Phil Murphy could win Morris County, the first Democratic gubernatorial nominee to win red Morris in a long time.

Interesting. Do you have an idea on how folks in Morris feel about this race?

I know a couple of people from Morris, it's a wealthy, Wall Street trader suburban bedroom community place, and it's also Christie's home. Murphy could win the county if Guadagno gets low and unenthusiastic turnout from the GOP. I don't think Trump supporters would vote for her.

I live in Morris and I would believe there are lots of typically wealthy, well-educated people around here that could be swayed to the Dems nationally under certain circumstances (i.e. Clinton v Trump) but would never vote for the state Dems bc of property taxes and state Dems being associated with "urban", "ghetto" (i.e. Black and Hispanic) areas of the state like Newark and Paterson, with many of the older residents being white flight "refugees" from those areas. But if Trumpist and general Republican enthusiasm is low and Dem enthusiasm is high, as seems likely will be the case, then I could see it flipping.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 651


« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2017, 08:58:24 PM »

Ouch, Murphy is winning big in Cloucester County.

Gloucester is a rather Democratic county. What's so surprising?

It narrowly voted for Trump last year
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 651


« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2017, 09:47:14 PM »

LD 25 (home base for me) is currently 50/50 according to NYT with 61% reporting. Hillary won by 200 votes after Romney won it comfortably in 2012
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 651


« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2017, 10:29:28 AM »

Dems seem to have a pretty hard ceiling of 45-46% in Morris County... the margin can vary based on third party performance (they got 4-5% in 2016 and Trump barely crossed 50% in the county, for example) but Dems just can't seem to get that last 5%. Taxes is probably the key thing here and as long as any Dem runs on raising them Republicans here will come out in droves against it.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 651


« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2017, 11:45:16 PM »

Looks like Somerset just narrowly flipped back to Murphy after all.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 651


« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2017, 11:47:54 PM »

Looks like Somerset just narrowly flipped back to Murphy after all.

Also the Dem is now leading for County Clerk there by 128 votes. If it holds he'll be the only countywide Dem elected official and the first one in God knows how long
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