Before anyone starts screaming "LIKELY R!!!1!1!!1!1one!!!1" because of Kentucky, keep in mind that post-jungle polling in the Senate race here last year actually underestimated Landrieu's ultimate vote total.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Louisiana,_2014#Polling_2Sure, Kentucky makes this a little worrying (grrrrr Southern whites, you cruel temptresses), but Edwards is getting much larger margins in the polls than Conway ever did, and Louisiana polls don't have a history of overestimating Democrats the way they do in Kentucky.