Let's just say the GOP gets the seats needed to win control through election night, wherever they may be. With the exception of Louisiana as it will likely go into runoff, which race result/poll closing, if any, will trigger the media calling the Republicans have captured the Senate due to getting that particular sixth seat? The tipping point, you could say. I'm thinking Alaska, if it flips. The others, like in NC, will be too close, and if they do flip, will be after control is declared.
If the GOP gets the seats needed to win control, I think that the "tipping seat" will be Louisiana (in a runoff) or Georgia (in a runoff).