Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Senator Cris]

Regional elections: LIGURIA

Assessor Raffaela Paita won the centre-left primary with 53% against MEP Sergio Cofferati that gained 46%. After a lot of controversy, Cofferati left the Democratic Party. In the general election, Paita will be supported by the Democratic Party and two civic lists. In the previous days, Paita was investigated for the flood that hit Liguria.

Forza Italia's spokesman Giovanni Toti will be the centre-right candidate for Governor. Initially, the Northern League was supporting Edoardo Rixi, but it done a deal with Berlusconi that provided the support of the League for Toti in exchange of the Forza Italia's support for Governor Zaia in Veneto. Toti will have the support of Forza Italia, Northern League, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, Popular Area (New Centre Right and Union of the Centre), Liberals and New Socialist Party. The coalition is united behind Toti, but he is not a strong candidate.

Member of Parliament Luca Pastorino, a member of the left-wing of the Democratic Party, left the Democratic Party and is now running for Governor of Liguria with Left Ecology and Freedom, local Left lists and with the support of some PD's members of the Civati wing.

Five Stars Movement is running Alice Salvatore.
Former Senator Enrico Musso is running with a centre-right civic list.  
The Other Liguria (a left movement) is running Antonio Bruno. Matteo Piccardi will be the candidate of the Communist Party of Workers.

Latest Polls:

Paita 33.5% Toti 29% Salvatore 23% Pastorino 13%

In my opinion, it's LEAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY HOLD. Both Paita and Toti are not great candidates, but Paita has the advantage of being supported by the Democratic Party that, in my opinion, will lead Paita to victory. The big questions is if Paita will be able to get a majority in the Regional Council.
As of today, I think Paita wins by a margin of 3-7 points.

[Senator Cris]

Will Lega of North keep its regions?

The only North League's incumbent of this cycle is Governor Luca Zaia of Veneto, that is challenged by former MEP Alessandra Moretti, Verona Mayor Flavio Tosi and M5S's candidate Jacopo Berti.

Zaia will be supported by 5 lists: North League, Forza Italia, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, President Zaia and Independence - We Veneto.

Moretti (the centre-left candidate) will be supported by 5 lists: Democratic Party, New Veneto (Left Ecology Freedom - Socialist Party - Greens), Civic Veneto, President Moretti for Veneto and Project Veneto Autonomo.

Tosi left the Nothern League and will be supported by 6 lists: Tosi for Veneto, Popular Area (New Centre Right - Union of the Centre), Family Pensioners, Razza Piave Veneto Stato, Veneto del fare and Project North East.

Berti will be supported by Five Stars Movement. Morosin will be supported by Indepencence. Coletti by the Other Veneto (extreme left). Sartori will be supported by New Force (extreme right).

It's an interesting race. Tosi will take some Zaia voters, but looks like that Zaia is still the favorite her. A good national environment and a strong commitment of Renzi in the campaign trail can help Moretti.
In my opinion, Zaia will win, but it will be close. I'm guessing a 1-5 points victory for the incumbent.

[Senator Cris]

Regional Elections in 7 regions will be held on 31 May. In Tuscany, if no candidate breaks 40% there will be a runoff (very unlikely). In the other regions, a plurarity is needed to win.

* = incumbent

TUSCANY. Incumbent Governor Rossi is running for re-election. He will win without a runoff. CS SOLID.

ROSSI * (Democratic Party, Tuscan people)
GIANNARELLI (Five Stars Movement)
BORGHI (North League, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance)
FATTORI (Yes - Left)
MUGNAI (Forza Italia, Toscana League - More Toscana)
LAMIONI (Passion for Toscana - NCD-UDC)
CHIURLI (Direct Democracy)

VENETO. Incumbent Governor Zaia, a member of the North League, is running for a second term. Verona Mayor Flavio Tosi, a former member of the North League, is also running with another centre-right coalition. MEP Alessandra Moretti is the center-left candidate. Looks like Zaia will be re-elected, but a strong environment for the CS might help Moretti. LEAN CD.

ZAIA * (North League, Forza Italia, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, President Zaia, Independence - We Veneto)
MORETTI (Democratic Party, New Veneto (Left Ecology Freedom - Socialist Party - Greens), Civic Veneto, President Moretti for Veneto,Project Veneto Autonomo)
TOSI (Tosi for Veneto, Popular Area (New Centre Right - Union of the Centre), Family Pensioners, Razza Piave Veneto Stato, Veneto del fare, Project North East)
BERTI (Five Stars Movement)
MOROSIN (Indepencence)
COLETTI (Other Veneto)

[Senator Cris]

LIGURIA. After a divisive primary, the Democratic Party's candidate is Raffaella Paita. The centre-right is united behind Giovanni Toti. Paita will be also challenged from the left by Member of Parliament Luca Pastorino, a former Democratic Party member that has the support of the left. It's probably the most interesting race. I'd say TILT CS.

PAITA (Democratic Party, 2 civic lists)
TOTI (Forza Italia, North League, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, Popular Area (NCD-UDC))
SALVATORE (Five Stars Movement)
PASTORINO (Pastorino List, Left)
MUSSO (Free Liguria)
BRUNO (Other Liguria)
PICCARDI (Communist Party of Workers)
BATINI (Fraternity Women)

APULIA. Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano is the center-left candidate. The centre-right is divided here. Initially, Francesco Schittulli was the candidate of all the centre-right, but Forza Italia refused to insert Raffaele Fitto's candidates in the lists. Fitto is strong in Apulia and this move angered Schittulli, that wanted competitive lists. After a lot of controversy... Adriana Poli Bortone, a member of Brothers of Italy, is the candidate of Forza Italia, We with Salvini (The South's North League). Schittulli remained in the race and will be supported by a Fitto's list, New Centre Right, a Schittulli list and Brothers of Italy - National Alliance (that is the party of Poli Bortone). The centre-right is divided and so it's SAFE CS.

EMILIANO (Democratic Party, 3 civic lists, We at left (Left Ecology Freedom and others), Communist Party, Populars (Union of the Centre, Democratic Center, Realtà Italia), Populars for Italy)
POLI BORTONE (Forza Italia, We with Salvini, Liberal Party, National Apulia)
SCHITTULLI (Oltre with Fitto, Schittulli Movement - Popular Area (New Centre Right), Brothers of Italy - National Alliance)
LARICCHIA (Five Stars Movement)
ROSSI (Other Apulia)
RIZZI (Communist Alternative)
MARIGGIO' (Greens)

[Senator Cris]

MEP Fitto is leaving Forza Italia and the EPP (European Popular Party). In the European Parliament, he will join ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists).

[Senator Cris]

CAMPANIA. A rematch in Campania. Incumbent Governor Stefano Caldoro is running for re-election and he will be supported by the same 2012 coalition except the Union of the Centre, that is supporting Vincenzo De Luca, the 2010 centre-left candidate. De Luca was involved in a lot of controversy on the presence of a lot of candidates under investigation in his lists. I'd say LEAN CS, but a Caldoro victory is not impossible. Unlikely but still possible.

CALDORO (Forza Italia, New Centre Right, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, Caldoro List, We South, Populars for Italy - Italian Republican Party, South League - Ausonia, 2 civic lists)
DE LUCA (Democratic Party, Union of the Centre, Democratic Centre, Italian Socialist Party, Italy of Values, Greens, 4 civic lists)
CIARAMBINO (Five Stars Movement)
VOZZA (Left at work for Campania)
ESPOSITO (Mò List)

UMBRIA. Incumbent Governor Catiuscia Marini is running for re-election to a second term. She will be challenged by Assisi Mayor Claudio Ricci, that united the centre-right behind him. Marini is not so beloved and Ricci is a strong candidate, but it's still Umbria and Marini will be re-elected. The interesting thing will be the margin of victory. LIKELY CS.

MARINI (Democratic Party, Left Ecology Freedom - The Left for Umbria, Socialists and Reformer, Civic and Popular Umbria)
RICCI (Forza Italia, North League, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, Popular Umbria, President Ricci, Change in Umbria with Ricci)
LIBERATI (Five Stars Movement)
DE PAULIS (Reformist Alternative)
VECCHIETTI (Umbria for another Europe)
FABIANI (Communist Party of Workers)
DI STEFANO (Sovereignty)
MAIORCA (New Force)

MARCHE. Incumbent Governor Gian Mario Spacca was elected in 2010 with a centre-left coalition, but now he is running for re-election with the support of Forza Italia, Popular Area and his list because of some problems with the local Democratic Party. The Democratic Party is running Pesaro Mayor Luca Ceriscioli. North League and Brothers of Italy - National Alliance are running a different candidate. SAFE CS (DEMOCRATIC PARTY)

CERISCIOLI (Democratic Party, United for Marche, Populars - Union of the Centre)
SPACCA (Forza Italia, Marche 2000-Popular Area, Christian Democracy)
MAGGI (Five Stars Movement)
ACQUAROLI (Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, North League)
MENTRASTI (Other Marche - Left United)

[Senator Cris]

Polls can't be published in Italy in the fifteen days preceding the elections and so there are some conclaves, cycling races or street racing horses with the camouflaged data. The latest data are confirming a close race in Liguria and Campania. Veneto is still leaning to a CD hold and the race is tightening in Umbria.

[Senator Cris]

The Antimafia Commission released the list of the unpresentable candidates. Between these candidates there is Vincenzo De Luca, the PD's candidate in Campania, but he is not accused of a mafia crime.

Also there are a lot of controversy about De Luca because he'd be ineligble because of the Severino Law, but looks like Renzi will change it...

[Senator Cris]

Has the electoral reform changed the regional elections in any manner?

Are you referring to the outcome of the elections or to the regional election laws?

[Senator Cris]

The latter.

Tuscany is the only region that has an election law very similar to the Italicum.

The various electoral systems:
 
VENETO: If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will win 50% of the vote --> 60% of the seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will gain between 40% and 50% of the vote --> 57.5% of the seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will not exceed 40% of the vote --> 55% of the seats are allocated to the winner.
 
LIGURIA: 80% of seats is proportionally allocated. 20% for the President's list (list of names selected by the candidate that don't need preferences to be elected). If the coalition is at 50% or over 50% of the seats with only the proportional part allocated, only 3 candidates of the President's list will be elected.
 
TUSCANY: If a candidate will not exceed 40% of votes, there will be a runoff.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will exceed 45% of the vote --> 60% of the seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will not exceed 40% of the vote --> 57.5% of the seats are allocated to the winner.
 
UMBRIA: 60% of the seats are allocated to the winner, instead of the % of the vote.
 
MARCHE: If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will exceed 40% of the vote --> 18 the seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will gain between 37% and 40% of the vote --> 17 seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will gain between 34% and 37% of the vote --> 16 seats are allocated to the winner.

APULIA: If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will exceed 40% of the vote --> 29 seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will gain between 35% and 40% of the vote --> 28 seats are allocated to the winner.
If the coalition (of lists) of the elected Governor will not exceed 35 of the vote --> 27 seats are allocated to the winner.

CAMPANIA: The winner will have at least 30 seats, instead of the % of the vote.

[Senator Cris]

De Luca is probably toast at this point. Berlusconi must be rejoicing, as FI will at least keep one region.

To be honest,I am not sure Campania's voters will care all that much.

Me too.

Rosy Bindi (a PD member, hostile to Renzi) made the list of unpresentable candidates with De Luca on it and a lot of PD members are accusing Bindi to use the Antimafia Commission in order to hurt Renzi.

I still think that De Luca will win, but there might be consequences in the other regions.

[Senator Cris]

Marini won in Umbria.
Toti won in Liguria.

[Senator Cris]

PD lost in Enna.

[Senator Cris]

New Ipsos poll:

Democratic Party 31.5%
5 Stars Movement 27.5%
North League 14.7%
Forza Italia 12.4%
Left 4.4%
Popular Area (New Centre-Right + Union of the Centre) 4.3%
Brothers of Italy-NA 4.2%
Others 1%

Runoffs:

Democratic Party 51.2%
Five Stars Movement 48.8%C

Democratic Party 61.5%
North League 38.5%

United Centre-Right 53.5%
Democratic Party 46.5%



Link of graphic (extra-large) --> http://www.corriere.it/politica/15_giugno_21/incognita-ballottaggi-sull-italicum-pd-batterebbe-di-poco-5-stelle-27589286-17dc-11e5-b9f9-a25699cf5023_foto_zoom_big.shtml

[Senator Cris]

Salvini is now supporting an alliance with Forza Italia in the next general election. "It's the only way to beat Renzi" he said.

[Senator Cris]

Would Berlusconi agree to a coalition headed by Salvini?

I think that there would be a centre-right primary. Salvini as the North League candidate, Governor Toti of Liguria as Forza Italia candidate, Giorgia Meloni as Brothers of Italy candidate, Former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto as candidate of the Conservatives and maybe Verona Mayor Flavio Tosi as candidate of the moderate wing.

[Senator Cris]

Salvini is now supporting an alliance with Forza Italia in the next general election. "It's the only way to beat Renzi" he said.

Fair enough, you were right and I stand corrected.

Though it's still far from a done deal.

It's not a done deal, but both Salvini and Berlusconi know that without an alliance (that means an unity list), the runoff will be Democratic Party vs. Five Stars Movement. If they want to push Five Stars Movement out of the runoff, an alliance is the only way.

[Senator Cris]

North League and Forza Italia will run togheter. It's the only way to get the runoff.
Without that alliance, it will be Democratic Party vs. Five Stars Movement. Both Forza Italia, Salvini and the other centre-right parties don't want that.

[Senator Cris]

Renzi wants to start the final process for the Senate reform this week.
The left-wing of the Democratic Party is against the reform (no surprise, they are more conservative than the right) and some of them doesn't want even a deal with the big majority of the party. They want to do as they want. Hilarious.

[Senator Cris]

Rome mayor Ignazio Marino resigns, accused of spending taxpayer cash on dinner parties.

[Senator Cris]

Next mayoral elections (May 2016) are going to be very interesting: Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin, Cagliari, Bologna, Trieste.

[Senator Cris]

Raggi,Muraro,Di Maio and all of the M5S leaders had denied for over a month that she was under investigation,even though they all knew about it.

Today Di Maio (the one who would be PM if M5S won national elections) said that he "read the email about Muraro but didn't fully understand it"...

That's an hard blow for the "movement of honesty".

[Senator Cris]

New polls after the Rome scandal:

SWG
PD 31 (+0.6)
M5S 25.1 (-4.4)
LN 14.1 (+1.3)
FI 13.9 (+0.3)
FDI 3.9
AP 3.4 (-0.1)
SI 3.4 (+0.9)

IPR
PD 32 (+1)
M5S 27 (-3)
LN 12.5 (-0.5)
FI 11 (+1)
FDI 5
SI 3.5
AP 3
Others 6 (+1)

Tecnè
PD 31.5 (+0.5)
M5S 27.5 (-3)
LN 13.5 (+1)
FI 13.5 (-0.5)
FDI 4.5 (+1)
SI 3.5 (+1)
AP 2.5 (-0.5)
Others 3.5 (+0.5)

[Senator Cris]

WinPoll poll: M5S loses more than 4 points in two weeks:

PD 32.8 (+1.1)
M5S 24.3 (- 4.5)
FI 12.4 (+0.4)
LN 12.2 (+1.1)
FDI 4.8 (+0.2)
SI 4.2 (+0.5)
AP 2.5

PD 33.2 (+0.9)
CD Unity List (FI + LN + FDI + Others CD) 30.8 (+2.3)
M5S 24.4 (- 5)
SI 4.1 (+0.3)
AP 2.7

They also polled the runoff. As of now, it would be a PD vs. CD runoff.

PD 55.5 (+0.5)
CD 44.5 (- 0.5)

M5S 51.5 (- 2.5)
PD 48.5 (+2.5)

M5S 54 (- 2.5)
CD 46 (+2.5)

[Senator Cris]

The fact is that if NO wins (in this case we'd keep the clause that the Senate will have to give confidence to the government) and assuming Renzi resigns, there'd be a House law that guarantee a majority to one party, but there's a Senate law that means 3 parties that almost equally split the seats, so no governability and infinite elections like Greece, unless the NO parties (5 Stars, centre-right, PD left-wing, left) can find an agreement on a new Senate electoral law, but I think it's pretty unlikely.