"Grading" my county prediction maps.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yep, that's what this is for. I'll post a new map of every state, with the counties I called wrong blanked out. I'd like to get actual numbers on how well I did.

Two comments beforehand from what I've seen:

1-The general rule of Republican rural areas being less partisan than Republican urban/suburban areas didn't apply this time for the most part. Though granted the set of issues and the local Democratic candidates for state offices probably had a lot to do with this.
2-There's no question as to who is more racist: Southern rednecks or Rust Belt industrial workers. Or at least less willing to put their economic interests ahead of their racism.

Anyway, coming up...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think you should wait a bit before you do this.  There are some remaining precincts that could tip counties from one candidate to the other.

Which I will. Once Dave has all the official results up.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Don't feel bad about missing Waupaca, Waushara, and Calumet, WI (assuming you picked McCain).  I'm still finding it difficult to believe those.

Obama crushed in NE Wisconsin in a way I never anticipated.

Here's what I care about:

-81/88 counties in Minnesota called correctly (though I narrowly missed the margins in too many.)
-No one getting over 50% in ALL 7 of the missed ones.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK, I can do the ones now that at least don't have obvious glaring errors in them (like Van Zandt, TX):



Some counties swung weird and tough to predict. Jefferson was a big oversight on my part, I forgot that the rural whites who voted for Clinton weren't going to vote for any black and thus Clinton's failure to overcome the white suburbanites was moot if blacks were all that was needed. Pretty good overall though, though I did overestimate the black boost in some places.

Note: Macon was actually weaker for Obama than Shannon, SD and the Bronx. The white Blue Dog population must've abandoned Obama (surprise, surprise.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I predicted an identical map to 2004, almost happened. The county that dropped wasn't the one I expected though.

Obama would've almost certainly have won Maricopa against a non-Arizonan.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looks like old "Zack the Barak Hack" underestimate the swing to Obama. By a lot.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just made my most common mistake, underestimating the swing of southern racists against Obama. And greatly underestimated it in northern Florida as a result. Though I also underestimated the swing to him in Alachua.

My theory about Florida (That moderate Republicans in central Florida were jumping ship over the economic crisis) largely turned out to be correct it seems.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I said they were subject to change.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Figured I'd do the state I care about the most:



Damn >40% counties messing so much up. I called the winner right and the general margin at least close in most. Lake and Cook are just heart-breaking (go check out how much Obama got in both.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK, I deserve some accolades on this one. I called every county except Cass and Traill. Obama's urban appeal here is quite obvious, and that's one thing I greatly underestimated. Another was the swing to him in some of the rural counties, even if he didn't flip them.