BRTD's county map predictions

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Did you see the latest polling from SD when you constructed this? It's referenced on Daily Kos, which has its own poll coming out soon, and Obama's showing strength in the Sioux Falls area if not the southeast.

Yeah I saw it, McCain +7 and based this on it. Two things though:

1-I don't read much into subsamples due to the MoE>
2-It's going to take a lot more to swing Sioux Falls, due to the whole urban vs. rural partisanship thing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And all the black haters on Staten Island look like jokes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh what the hey. Let's get controversial:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BRTD, when are you gonna do VA?

Very possibly tonight, I'd been putting it off for so long because of the annoying independent cities but there's little interesting left.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When are you going to do NC?

Possibly tonight, if not likely tomorrow if I have the time (I'll probably be busy lit dropping.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Might as well get this boring one out of the way:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

*yawn* This is actually a rather boring state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here you go. Those independent cities are a huge huge pain.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a state that'll be tough to predict, but that I seem to have a strange talent for predicting right if the primary is any indication:

Tippecanoe will go Obama, though it will be extremely close.  In 2004 Bush did only 1% better statewide than he did in the county, BUT the massive swing in Indiana towards Obama has occurred among industrial workers such as are found in Lafayette.  And Purdue turnout will be vastly greater this time around.

Marion needs a deeper shade of red.

I spend a great deal of time in Porter County, though mostly in the Valparaiso area, which appears to be heavily conservative Republican.  Unless there are some liberal areas with which I'm unfamiliar, I can't see it going Obama.  This was a Goldwater county, though oddly enough it was also a Clinton '96 county.

Tippecanoe is possible, but I'm conservative with any 59% Bush county flipping.

Porter was only 53% Bush, so yes, clearly there are some other liberal areas (well actually industrial areas, like most of Lake and LaPorte.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Fairfax is rather polarized. Breaking 60% there is hard unless it's a just plain not competitive at all race (like Warner will.) But if that happens one will easily win Loudon, Webb did, Obama should easily.

More coming tonight.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who wins in NC?  According to your map, it looks awfully close.

Consider it a tie. It won't look much different depending on whichever one pulls off a narrow win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why does this state have so many counties anyway?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That'll come election eve when I'll give the numbers for every state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And all the black haters on Staten Island look like jokes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh God yes. I just drank the perfect amount of alcohol. You know how you're tipsy but can still walk straight? Just more flexible? Buzzed but not anywhere near being sick? That's what I got. It's fucking perfect. I hate to go overboard now but I think I'll press my luck with one more shot.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Finally, some Kerry-McCain counties.

You weren't paying attention in the past.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Virginia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A little less.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Appleton and Green Bay were tough ones. I decided to trust Beef's judgment:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually the county I hate most (beside the obvious choices of Waukesha and the like) is Brown. Hate hate hate hate hate that place. The reason should be obvious.