BRTD's county map predictions

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I can't believe I forgot this easy one:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I still object to Asotin R>60, but you're doing a pretty good job, especially considering the rigor of the task.

Hmmm, >60 is another error. Needs to be dropped a notch.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Something in particular about this is going to piss StatesRights off a lot...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's based off Obama +4-5, roughly the current polling numbers in Florida.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's based off Obama +4-5, roughly the current polling numbers in Florida.

FL will be about 4-5% more GOP than the national, so if he wins by that, he probably wins Florida by 1-2% at best. I can't see the entire western coast of FL trending that hard left in that case.

The bolded part is where the logic goes wrong as that hasn't happened since 1988.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

     Still not much South, though I can kind of understand why. Southern states have tons of counties.

Tons of counties + boring = a toxic combo.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's based off Obama +4-5, roughly the current polling numbers in Florida.

FL will be about 4-5% more GOP than the national, so if he wins by that, he probably wins Florida by 1-2% at best. I can't see the entire western coast of FL trending that hard left in that case.

The bolded part is where the logic goes wrong as that hasn't happened since 1988.

You mean 1992.  

GHWB got about 40% in Florida and 37% nationwide.

I think his point is that if the trend continues in FL, it will be about 4 points more GOP than the national average.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=84653.0

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I based the FL map off 2000 so I might've overestimated a bit and'll probably revamp it. But I have a theory about FL based off the current polling which if true will give some surprising results (trying to be vague Sam Spade-style.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll do some later, but some comments for now:

-As said above, Florida was probably a bit of an overstimation thanks to me basing it off the 2000 map, and will be revised, but I have a theory about parts of Florida that if true will lead to some surprising results. And the part that would piss of StatesRight is Hillsborough county, which is not changing.
-Kerry's performance in rural Missouri was not normal for a Democrat, even one losing by that margin. Nor was Gore's even. Look at the 2006 Senate map, McCaskill won some 2004 >60% Bush counties, and won a lot more than Kerry or Gore even though she did only three points better than Kerry in percentage of the vote. Kerry even lost Columbia county, which he had absolutely no business doing, and if Obama does I'll eat my shoe. For that map btw I'm assuming basically a tie, I have it going Obama but that might be wishful thinking, if you want to consider it an almost tie going McCain go ahead, there won't be much difference.
-If you note, Monmouth is >40, aka very close. I don't know about the demographic changes Verily mentions, but overall it seems to be a generally Republican county Gore overperformed in. Hell, Gore even almost won Ocean.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a state that'll be tough to predict, but that I seem to have a strange talent for predicting right if the primary is any indication:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a state that'll be tough to predict, but that I seem to have a strange talent for predicting right if the primary is any indication:

I think, though I could easily be wrong, that Vanderburgh might fall before some of the river counties or even, maybe, before the likes of Porter.

Maybe. It's >40 though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Determining where exactly the swings were going to take place here was kind of tough:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I was thinking in terms of how boring most of Mississippi would be.

Anyway, I bet my Iowa map will probably give WalterMitty a heart attack when he sees it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Virginia gogogo!

It's a shame you got all those annoying independent cities.

Could you post the margin whoever wins by along with the map, even if it's just a rough margin?

OK but I rarely have more than a rough margin in my head.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a boring as shit one:



Obama doing just very slightly worse than Kerry.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've seen Sioux County license plates here. It's weird. I'd figured here would be the last place any such person would go, they probably consider Sioux City an evil hotbed of debauchery much less Minneapolis. Then again maybe they're some of the few sane people escaping.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've seen Sioux County license plates here. It's weird. I'd figured here would be the last place any such person would go, they probably consider Sioux City an evil hotbed of debauchery much less Minneapolis. Then again maybe they're some of the few sane people escaping.

Madison County has almost no blacks or Catholics, and tends to float a bit, and has some commuters to Des Moines. I suspect it will swing more than the nation.

That's a valid reason it might not.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Al would know a lot more for this:



Imagine McCain by about 7 or so. No he's not winning by double digits, yes, he's winning by less than Wyoming, no he's not close to winning every county.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wyoming? It voted for Gore by over 10 points, and this margin is assuming a lot closer to Gore's numbers than Kerry's.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So I suppose there was no way Bush could've won Wayne County in 2000.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You're not getting any during the day because that's when I work. Though as I'm not working overtime this week I'll have more time to make them.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]