Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Remember that there will be a 1 in 20 sample every three weeks statistically, and between the two "main" tracking polls that means one every 10 days, or a week and a half.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The numbers, at this point, are crisis driven; the crisis ends, the Obama lead ends.

SAY SOMETHING NON-HACKISH FOR ONCE

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Winning the debate spin is more important than winning the debate. In 2004 most pundits agreed Bush won the second debate and the third was basically considered a tie, but Kerry's team had better media spin. By the end it became a talking point Kerry won all three debates. That's basically happened with the first debate. I still haven't seen it yet so I'm not saying who actually won but there's no doubt Obama won the media spin. Of course McCain's little suspension stunt no doubt helped in that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Winning the debate spin is more important than winning the debate. In 2004 most pundits agreed Bush won the second debate and the third was basically considered a tie, but Kerry's team had better media spin. By the end it became a talking point Kerry won all three debates. That's basically happened with the first debate. I still haven't seen it yet so I'm not saying who actually won but there's no doubt Obama won the media spin. Of course McCain's little suspension stunt no doubt helped in that.

Not hard when you have the full force of the media at your back, like the wind in sails.

The reason is more McCain's suspending his campaign stunt as I noticed. As for 2004, it mostly came from how awful Bush was in the first debate. He was so bad that the idea of him winning a debate became laughable even if he did perform better later. If Bush had performed decent in the first debate and tanked in the third, he probably would've won the spin for the second.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

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See that little ignore button up there next to my name? Why don't you press it?

This is ghostmonkey's first decent post ever. Incidentally it's also the last I'll ever read.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So the last two nights McCain has cut into the lead? Nice. Maybe by Tuesday we'll be down 4?

If I had a dime for every time someone on this forum committed the trend line fallacy...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It might be noise or the beginnings of a trend.  We'll see.

I have never once heard you say an Obama gain of a point (or an Obama gain of ~0.07 for that matter) may be the beginning of a trend.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL. Another italicized "should" from J. J.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

J. J. would probably fail a 7th grade math test. Remember how Wisconsin was tightening near the end?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LV (new voter formula)
Obama 53
McCain 43

LV (traditional)
Obama 51
McCain 45

which one is better?

Really no way of knowing until after the election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My guess is that the 2nd likely voter model has the party identification as 37-37 D-R like in 2004.

That won't be the case this election.

The prophet ChrisFromNJ speaks again.

We saw the sme claims here for years ago.  Remember how all the new voters swung FL to Kerry.

Deja Vu from 2004. The youth vote is gonna come out in record numbers and shatter all records in  turnout.

And yet the day after Bush was reelected.. it's was clear that the youth vote just didn't show.

The cult of the youth voter remains, once again, the most absurd, bogus, childish, romantic and misguided joke of liberal American politics.

Yes, remember how it was going to turn out big and propel Obama to victory over Hillary but turnout of the youth vote was minimal...oh wait.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A reminder: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?fips=55

PPP claimed the reason for the discrepancy was all other posters (excluding ARG for obvious reasons) were using a traditional turnout model while they were using a new one boosting black and youth turnout.

It turns out PPP actually underestimated Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A reminder: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?fips=55

PPP claimed the reason for the discrepancy was all other posters (excluding ARG for obvious reasons) were using a traditional turnout model while they were using a new one boosting black and youth turnout.

It turns out PPP actually underestimated Obama.

You just violated J. J.'s Second Rule, again.

I think it might be between the two turnout numbers, but any candidate that will count on it is usually in trouble.

He did not, because he is not a candidate.

The rule doesn't just apply to the candidate. 

J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections:  "When a politician or activist talks about a large group of voters that, a. aren't being polled, or b. really going to turn out and swing the election, there is no such group."

The candidate isn't necessarily involved.

As did PPP, and they were more accurate than any other pollster in this case. So then what?

*Ed8t* Actually not really. See Lewis' comment. PPP didn't violate the rule (and really, no pollster can)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's a good thing for Republicans that people who graduate college and earn B. A.s are too stupid to know how to re-register.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd bet any sum of money that does not equal 20% of Obama's young primary voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even if 20% of Obama's young primary voters have changed residences since then, it's obvious that not every single one has not re-registered, or even that a majority haven't. So Obama has not lost 20% of his young voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even if 20% of Obama's young primary voters have changed residences since then, it's obvious that not every single one has not re-registered, or even that a majority haven't. So Obama has not lost 20% of his young voters.

BRTD, where did I say that there would be a 20% drop from the primaries.  I didn't.  I said that there could be a reduction, and that one reason is probably 20% have moved.

Here's the argument in a nutshell:

J. J. (and others) says the traditional voter model is more accurate since youth never vote.
Lief points out there was a huge surge of turnout in the primaries.
J. J. argues some of those have moved and gives the 20% estimate.
Many point out anyone graduating college isn't so dumb they don't know how to re-register.
The other arguments that come that "some" have not, blah blah blah.

While probably a factor in the end equals a very small one and not alone enough reason to argue that there will be no increase in youth turnout after 2004 whatsoever (which is the basis of arguing the traditional model is the correct one.) It also ignores other factors such as same-day registration states, people registered since the primaries, people too young to vote in the primaries now 18, etc. Of course J. J. is a big fan of this type of grasping at straws (see Mormons in Colorado.) so it's hardly a surprise, but the argument that the young voters will never show up no matter what happens in primaries needs to be a bit bigger than this little nitpick.

BTW I'm one of the "20%" if we accept this figure as correct as I have moved since February, and I have re-registered, even though I don't have to since I live in a same day registration state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Must've picked up a 1-in-20 sample last night.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Enough with "Christian Democrat" thing, Dave. You're like a broken record.

That's exactly what Obama is on economic and quality of life issues

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On social issues, I'd say Obama is liberal-leaning

Dave

I think the point is you keep saying the same thing over and over and it's gotten almost as annoying as that "after you the deluge" stuff from J. J. Yes, we know why you support Obama and don't support McCain.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Phew! Good news.

I think all that's going on here is shaky Republicans finally going with McCain. As long as Obama can remain above 50 he should be fine.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What a comeback by McCain, to be down double digits.

If John McCain posted on the Atlas...atleast he wouldn't have frickin' hieroglyphics as his screenname. He's coming back...GET OVER IT!

Well he better get on that "coming back" strategy of his because the polls open in like 70 hours.

He actually is, which is why we've been discussing PA. 

Yep, candidates down double digits in the Gallup poll often win the election. Yup, yup.

Why is a candidate doing so well sending out urgent requests for more volunteers. especially one with a good ground game?

Why wouldn't he? It doesn't hurt him in any way. Just because Obama's ahead doesn't mean he should just sit down and forget everything or instead focus on Idaho or something.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The lady I was canvassing with today got a call from her daughter at the time, who was also canvassing for GOTV. And her daughter lives in Brooklyn.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Which of the Js in J. J. stands for Joke I wonder? He should just be J. P., Joke Poster.