Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also the good streak for Hillary in the media likely ends tomorrow morning when the caucus comes in (then there's the rumor of Obama's fundraising + superdelegate bloc.)

Yeah ok.

Hillary's three state comeback > Texas caucus results

Not necessarily in delegates...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The media can do anythig it wants.

If they say Clinton is the new front-runner, then *poof*, she is.

Yeah well they said Giuliani was the frontrunner forever, up until Iowa basically.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know you can keep copying and pasting the FL and MI crap all you like, it doesn't mean sh!t since the DNC doesn't agree with you.

Hate to tell you this BRTD, but the DNC can seat those delegates.  It really depends on who has a bare majority on both the credentials committee and/or if Hillary (this time) can muster a majority of all delegates on the floor (not just the elected ones). 

The Democratic National Committee can even reverse the initial ruling.

It becomes a matter or raw votes.

Sure they can but they don't want to. And the math for Hillary to catch up in delegates not counting FL and MI is still quite daunting.

And you'd have to be a complete braindead hack to say there is no valid argument why Michigan should not be counted in the elected delegate total.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

And Hillary has to eat two big losses before it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

And Hillary has to eat two big losses before it.

Big losses? Wow. I've never heard Wyoming described as "big" in any sense. Whose spinning now?

Big in terms of the margin. Wyoming's not a big state but neither is Iowa or New Hampshire.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know you can keep copying and pasting the FL and MI crap all you like, it doesn't mean sh!t since the DNC doesn't agree with you.

Hate to tell you this BRTD, but the DNC can seat those delegates.  It really depends on who has a bare majority on both the credentials committee and/or if Hillary (this time) can muster a majority of all delegates on the floor (not just the elected ones). 

The Democratic National Committee can even reverse the initial ruling.

It becomes a matter or raw votes.

Sure they can but they don't want to. And the math for Hillary to catch up in delegates not counting FL and MI is still quite daunting.

And you'd have to be a complete braindead hack to say there is no valid argument why Michigan should not be counted in the elected delegate total.

I didn't say there was a valid argument, though there might be (I'm not sure the DNC has the authority to adopt such a rule in the first place, but I have not checked).  Neither candidate will have a valid argument, at least completely so.  The hypocrisy swells no matter what happens, without a clean win.

Then why do you keep saying Obama can't argue he leads in elected delegates excluding FL and MI?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There is something else that is rarely mentioned about superdelegates, some of them are elected (sort of). Every state has at least one "add-on" which is elected either by the state convention or leadership of the state party. Since Obama dominates all caucuses he'll dominate all conventions and thus own the superdelegates elected at conventions. The ones elected by the state committees are trickier, so far two have been elected, one from Oklahoma (a former Edwards supporter now uncommitted) and one from Alabama (an Obama supporter.) These are basically immune to media spin and Obama is guaranteed at least half.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX

Oh, yes. This is clearly the more democratic system.

Is giving 100% of delegates to someone who wins 32% more democratic and proportional?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX

Oh, yes. This is clearly the more democratic system.

Is giving 100% of delegates to someone who wins 32% more democratic and proportional?

Uh, at least the person who won more votes gets more delegates as opposed to someone losing in the vote count yet obtaining more delegates.

But by any mathematical measure of proportionality the Democratic system wins out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX

Oh, yes. This is clearly the more democratic system.

Is giving 100% of delegates to someone who wins 32% more democratic and proportional?

Uh, at least the person who won more votes gets more delegates as opposed to someone losing in the vote count yet obtaining more delegates.

But by any mathematical measure of proportionality the Democratic system wins out.

Sorry but I "proportionality" shouldn't mean more. Someone getting less votes shouldn't get more delegates.

But that's more likely in your system looking at national delegates and votes cast.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Another thing - if I had to guess at this moment, I wouldn't be surprised if my Hillary +3 prediction in Texas nails it...  Unless the missing areas are blacks or upper-income whites.  Hillary's been gaining a good bit in the same-day voting numbers almost everywhere.

So ARG is right too?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Clinton did better than I thought she would. She won Ohio by a fair amount, although not the sort of margin she needed to have any hope of catching up with pledged delegates. She won the Texas primary, and she's currently up 65-61 with their delegates. That net of 4 should be cancelled out by Obama's expected win in the caucus. She's looking stronger than before, but Obama is definitely still the front-runner, before she was looking like a joke.

Wow, you're such a hack jFRAUD. [/Phil and J. J.]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Clinton did better than I thought she would. She won Ohio by a fair amount, although not the sort of margin she needed to have any hope of catching up with pledged delegates. She won the Texas primary, and she's currently up 65-61 with their delegates. That net of 4 should be cancelled out by Obama's expected win in the caucus. She's looking stronger than before, but Obama is definitely still the front-runner, before she was looking like a joke.

Wow, you're such a hack jFRAUD. [/Phil and J. J.]

No, you see, I applaud when people admit a defeat. You have yet to do so.

I completely agree with his post pretty much.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Bill is heading to WY.

That settles it. WY = Safe Clinton.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If 11 straight wins couldn't deliver Texas or Ohio, how the HELL is Mississippi and Wyoming going to help deliver PA, a closed primary??

It's not, but it could cancel out the delegates.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hillary is not going to drop out after winning PA... This is going to go all the way to the convention. The Democrats are in serious trouble.

I have no facts to back this up, but I have a feeling it will be Obama who drops out. Not now, of course, but in a matter of weeks.

Obama's not going to drop out as long as he has a delegate lead. That'd be just ridiculous.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

LOL

Ok. Want me to name the other polls that had her up over ten points? By the way, those polls with Obama closing in mean nothing now. Easy win in OH = easy win in PA.

You mean a bunch of uni polls? Yeah sure.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

LOL

Ok. Want me to name the other polls that had her up over ten points? By the way, those polls with Obama closing in mean nothing now. Easy win in OH = easy win in PA.

You mean a bunch of uni polls? Yeah sure.

Quinnipiac is a very reliable uni poll but don't worry. We'll have plenty of other polls showing her ahead comfortably and then you'll whine about those, too.

I can't wait to see the margins she runs up in the Pittsburgh, Erie and Scranton areas.

The most recent Quinnipiac has her up only 6.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Please note that my projection here has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And in other places, like across Pennslyvania in the West, there were a lot of 3 Clinton delegates, 2 Obama delegates. With Clinton winning the state by 56%., the delegate split is 82 Clinton, 76 Obama, hardly an exciting firewall for Clinton.

So a Republican's projection is even worse for Hillary by mine with a double digit victory.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've looked at the CD's and the heaviest is 50% African American (but it keeps electing Bob Brady).  Most of even the 5  districts are heavily Caucasian.  PA is not Obama territory.

I think you're missing Chaka Fattah's CD.  Aren't most of the whites in Brady's CD ethnics?  And isn't there a decent Puerto Rican population in Brady's CD too?

Might be trouble if it wasn't odd numbered in terms of delegates, I have it going 4-3.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama's not going to drop out as long as he has a delegate lead. That'd be just ridiculous.

It might be a situation where, in July, Obama is told, "You have a majority of the elected delegates, but to keep that you'll have to disenfranchise FL and MI, if full view of the television cameras, in August."  Even if he wins, he loses.

Obama needs to get a 110 to 165 lead of elected delegates.  He can still do it, but it will be a long fight.

1-The DNC doesn't agree with you.
2-Arguing that Hillary's lead in Michigan is legitimate is hackery of the worst type. For Florida there might be a point, but not Michigan.

On a side note, why have you not answered up for that nonsense you spewed about Wisconsin?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Please note that my projection here has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.

If she wins between 50% and 58.3% of the two candidate vote, and it's uniform, she nets 13 district delegates. Winning by 10 points would net her 18 or 19 delegates.

I have her winning by ten points in that.