County That Most Closely Mirrors State Results?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota's bellwether since 1960 is Pine. But the actual best gauge of how the state goes are Washington and Dakota counties, although the Democrat can still win fairly easily and lose those counties, they just have to lose by less than roughly 8-10 points. A Republican needs to win those counties by a very wide margin to carry the state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd say Prince George's, it almost always goes Democrat as does the state as a whole.  If P.G. goes Republican, so will the rest of the state.

Prince George's hasn't voted Republican since 1972, yet Maryland did 1980-1988. It also voted overwhelmingly for Townsend in 2002 despite her losing the election.

Better bellwethers are Baltimore COUNTY and Howard. Of course O'Malley won without winning Baltimore, but that means you just have to hold the GOP margin of victory below 5 points or so.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've analyzed Minnesota a bit closer, and looked at all statewide elections since 2002.

There is no county that voted as a bellwether in every one. The closest is probably Le Sueur, picking the winner every time except State Auditor in 2002 and President in 2004.

What's interesting is the Secretary of State results. Even though Humphrey III lost in 2002 and Ritchie won in 2006, Le Sueur was one of only two counties (the other being Houston) to flip from Kiffmeyer in 2002 to Ritchie in 2006. Lots of rural counties however flipped to Kiffmeyer. Odd.

When I have more time I might actually list how many times each county in Minnesota voted for the winner in every statewide election from 2000 on.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK, here's how many times each county voted for the winner in every statewide race since 2000:

9 times:
Crow Wing
Todd
Chisago
Isanti
Washington
Dakota
Kandiyohi
Nicolett

8 times:
Cottonwood
Blue Earth
Le Sueur
Rice
Winona

7 times:
Roseau
St. Louis
Lake
Itasca
Aitkin
Cass
Hubbard
Stearns
Benton
Mille Lacs
Goodhue
Wabasha
Freeborn
Mower
Nobles
Sibley
Meeker
Kanabec
Douglas
Stevens
La Qui Parle
Big Stone
Swift
Hennepin
Ramsey
Anoka

6 times:
Kittson
Koochiching
Beltrami
Cook
Mahnomen
Norman
Clay
Becker
Morrison
Pope
Chippewa
Renville
Yellow Medicine
Lincoln
Lyon
Watonwan
Waseca
Steele
Fillmore
Houston
Jackson
Martin
Faribault

5 times:
Otter Tail
Rock
Pipe Stone
Wadena
Brown
Redwood
Olmsted
Dodge
Sherburne
Wright
McLeod
Carver
Scott
Wilkin

4 times:
Traverse
Clearwater
Lake of the Woods

3 times:
Grant
Marshall
Polk
Pennington
Red Lake

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LA County, probably.

No, jfern had the answer. Rather surprising.