Are dems punching above weight in Iowa?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Admittedly it's a statistical tie with the margin of error and all that and that the DRA numbers are actually kind of funky to begin with but notable that Trump possibly did better amongst white voters in Virginia than in West Virginia.

EDIT: But per the exit poll Trump won 54% of white voters in Virginia. I just think the DRA numbers are real off.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Admittedly it's a statistical tie with the margin of error and all that and that the DRA numbers are actually kind of funky to begin with but notable that Trump possibly did better amongst white voters in Virginia than in West Virginia.

EDIT: But per the exit poll Trump won 54% of white voters in Virginia. I just think the DRA numbers are real off.

DRA numbers for the state as a whole are probably more accurate than exit polls, since data smudging and the absentee ballot vagueness of VA disappear in the aggregate.

I'm not seeing how it's mathematically possible Biden did only 4 points better amongst whites in Virginia than he did in Tennessee.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Admittedly it's a statistical tie with the margin of error and all that and that the DRA numbers are actually kind of funky to begin with but notable that Trump possibly did better amongst white voters in Virginia than in West Virginia.

EDIT: But per the exit poll Trump won 54% of white voters in Virginia. I just think the DRA numbers are real off.

DRA numbers for the state as a whole are probably more accurate than exit polls, since data smudging and the absentee ballot vagueness of VA disappear in the aggregate.

Just did some quick math and indeed the VRA numbers are impossible.

Virginia was about 58% white alone and 62% white self reported last census. If we take the lower number and don't regard higher whire turnout 0.58×0.75=over 43%, and Trump received 44% in VA. That means he would have to received almost no votes whatsoever from the non-white voters. 1/42=2.3% so accounting for third parties Biden would still have to have won over 95% of the non-white vote!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Admittedly it's a statistical tie with the margin of error and all that and that the DRA numbers are actually kind of funky to begin with but notable that Trump possibly did better amongst white voters in Virginia than in West Virginia.

EDIT: But per the exit poll Trump won 54% of white voters in Virginia. I just think the DRA numbers are real off.

DRA numbers for the state as a whole are probably more accurate than exit polls, since data smudging and the absentee ballot vagueness of VA disappear in the aggregate.

Just did some quick math and indeed the VRA numbers are impossible.

Virginia was about 58% white alone and 62% white self reported last census. If we take the lower number and don't regard higher whire turnout 0.58×0.75=over 43%, and Trump received 44% in VA. That means he would have to received almost no votes whatsoever from the non-white voters. 1/42=2.3% so accounting for third parties Biden would still have to have won over 95% of the non-white vote!

Yeah I would not take the stats of the OP as an accurate measure of the statewide vote. Doing some back of the envelope calculations, the statewide vote is around ~37% for Biden, which is basically in line with Adam Griffin's estimates in 2012. I also assumed around 95% of Black voters for Biden, so if your model of Black voters in VA has them voting a little to the right of that the white vote for Biden goes up a bit.

Virginia is only a little over 20% black though. The rest is mostly Hispanic and Asian, who actually together almost make up almost as much as the black percentage, and obviously aren't going to be >90% for Biden.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Admittedly it's a statistical tie with the margin of error and all that and that the DRA numbers are actually kind of funky to begin with but notable that Trump possibly did better amongst white voters in Virginia than in West Virginia.

EDIT: But per the exit poll Trump won 54% of white voters in Virginia. I just think the DRA numbers are real off.

DRA numbers for the state as a whole are probably more accurate than exit polls, since data smudging and the absentee ballot vagueness of VA disappear in the aggregate.

Just did some quick math and indeed the VRA numbers are impossible.

Virginia was about 58% white alone and 62% white self reported last census. If we take the lower number and don't regard higher whire turnout 0.58×0.75=over 43%, and Trump received 44% in VA. That means he would have to received almost no votes whatsoever from the non-white voters. 1/42=2.3% so accounting for third parties Biden would still have to have won over 95% of the non-white vote!

Yeah I would not take the stats of the OP as an accurate measure of the statewide vote. Doing some back of the envelope calculations, the statewide vote is around ~37% for Biden, which is basically in line with Adam Griffin's estimates in 2012. I also assumed around 95% of Black voters for Biden, so if your model of Black voters in VA has them voting a little to the right of that the white vote for Biden goes up a bit.

Virginia is only a little over 20% black though. The rest is mostly Hispanic and Asian, who actually together almost make up almost as much as the black percentage, and obviously aren't going to be >90% for Biden.

Do you not listen very well? Did you not hear where I'm saying this applies only to 90 percent or more white precincts?

That's kind of a pointless number to use.