Minnesota Supreme Court 2024 Megathread: The most interesting statewide election

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Typically judicial elections in Minnesota are just nominal "electoral-type event" affairs, thanks to pretty strict laws that restrict what candidates can run on and that any challengers have to basically suspend their legal private practice while running, thus no one wants to. For example there was just one judge challenged in 2022, every other one ran unopposed. And no incumbent Minnesota Supreme Court justice has been defeated since the 30s. They're just dull around affairs.

That's probably going to change in 2024 and is actually going to be far more fought after than Klobuchar's boring landslide or the Presidential election that'll be decided elsewhere.

Let me explain: Right now the MNSC has a 5-2 liberal majority, with one of the conservatives (the Chief Justice actually) being probably along the lines of Lisa Murkowski in ideology. The only staunch conservative on it is Barry Anderson, who is also the oldest justice. Now Minnesota requires judges to retire at age 70 (technically just the month they turn age 70, so really the last day of the month of their birthday.) And Anderson turns 70 in October 2024...right before the election. He is thus ineligible to run again.

Theoretically Anderson could retire before then. But if he did that would mean that Walz would get to appoint his successor who would thus win easily if even challenged in November. Which he wouldn't want. Walz gets to appoint his successor in October anyway, but at that point the primary determining the candidates in November would already occur and even if Walz's appointment is one of them, they wouldn't be designated as an incumbent on the ballot. That would only occur if the appointment occurs before the primary filing deadline and Anderson has no incentive to retire before then.

Therefore it's a safe bet there will be an actual competitive election. Competitive judicial elections in Minnesota aren't unheard of although they almost always happen with an incumbent judge choosing to stand down next election instead of retiring, and that happens like 1% of the time, but with the sheer number of judges does mean you get such a race somewhere in the state like every two elections or so. Alan Page, elected in 1992, was the last justice directly elected to the MNSC without being appointed. However unless Anderson is willing to do Walz and the liberal wing a favor, his seat is going to be the next one filled that way, and with the current polarized environment it's tough to see it not being a contested election even if nonpartisan.

I have no doubt that Walz will get a nominee ready who'll file before October, get DFL backing (unofficially as political parties are technically forbidden from endorsing judicial candidates, but it'll be made obvious), and then make the runoff for November, while conservatives rally around an opponent. And it might result in an interesting election and maps. Then Walz likely appoints said candidate in October, but unless they win the November general election they'll effectively just be a seat warmer for a few months.

So any news or developments in regards to this will be posted here.