State leg races in your area

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I figure this relates to governors more than Congress, so I put it here. What are your state leg races like? Due to the lack of polls, I think these are more interesting to analyze.

I've actually got a pretty interesting set, since all 3 Mankato area seats are open with all three Democrat incumbents retiring.

23A - This district contains all of Nicollet county (except one precinct in North Mankato) + about half of rural Sibley county north of it. The county seat of Nicollet, St. Peter, home to Gustavus Adolphus University, is extremely liberal and Democratic, but the rural parts of the district are very conservative, and the district voted for Bush by about 2 points last election, despite throwing out a Republican incumbent in favor of Ruth Johnson, a former State Rep. with a very liberal record. But she's retiring now after only one term back in office. The Democratic candidate is Gustavus professor and St. Peter school board chair Terry Morrow, the Republican is 25 year old just retired Army Ranger Andy Davis. Morrow is the way better politician and public speaker (not suprising since he's a speech professor at Gustavus) but I was initially worried due to Davis' capitalization of a "liberal" issue (wetlands preservation) based on LTTE. But based on some questionairres in the paper and part of a debate I saw, that's about it for his contrarian positions, he tends to give rather ideologue style answers to issues, which doesn't play too well in a not-very-conservative district, a good example being when asked about education funding he went on a rant about how Minnesota taxpayers aren't an unlimited source of funds for the state government. His age and inexperience might turn some voters off too, but I'm worried that some liberal Gustavus students might vote for him BECAUSE of his age. I noticed while doing phonebanking for the DFL in St. Peter, that many 20 somethings vote straight Democratic except for Davis. Despite this, during our discussion of these races in my elections class, I did notice that he turned off at least one guy I know is Republican-leaning and is working on the campaign for the Republican State Senate candidate.

Prediction: Toss up/Slight Democratic edge

23B - My district. Contains all of Mankato proper, one North Mankato precinct, Mankato township, rural Lime township, and suburban Skyline. Long time incumbent John Dorn is retiring, former Mankato school board chair Kathy Brynaert is the Democrat, the Republican is Luke Robinson, a non-name attorney with no real credentials I can see. But the GOP doesn't have anyone really better to run, and probably knew the seat isn't too winnable, which voted for Kerry by over 9 points. Worth noting last election Dorn's opponent probably outspent him 10:1 and still didn't come within 10 points.

Prediction: Likely Democratic

23 - The Senate district. Almost a perfect bellwether of the state, gave the same percentage to Kerry down to the 1/100 of a percentile, gave Bush only .1% less than the statewide number. Former Mankato City Council Chair and MSU professor Kathy Sheran is running against former state Rep. and county GOP chair Mark Piepho. Even though Piepho is a rather straightforward conservative, he does appear to have some crossover appeal (which I've noticed in phonebanking), largely because he's much more likeable and down to earth than Sheran, who seems like your stereotypical liberal eltist type. However at the debate on campus I saw part of, Sheran came across as far more articulate, Piepho isn't that great of a public speaker or debator, Sheran clearly knew more. But Piepho appears to be doing better in general campaigning and according to discussions in class (which includes students who have worked on either campaign), Piepho appears to come across better in person. But the district is still DFL leaning, and the national climate will affect races all the way downballot, even to here. Piepho will no doubt do better than Kennedy in the district. Whether he does better than Pawlenty could also decide if he wins it or not.

Prediction: Lean Democratic